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Disease, Duration and Death

Abstract

Life has always been threaten by diseases, calamities, catastrophes leading to death caused by various known or unknown, animate or inanimate objects in human’s relatively medium life span. Ever since the documentation of the human history, it is well known that man loved their body and prefer to live in accordance with their wishes. When rationale judgment became prominent after the experiences and observations of life and death events, they started searching remedies such as medicine. This is how medicine evolved since our early civilization. With the development of reason, logic, observation, experimentation and practical application, we learned tremendous ways of saving body, brain and behavior. However, as time passes human environment changes unpredictably leading to change in human behavior and attitude towards objects/materials and living beings. It is not only a matter of physical, biological or cosmic change but also behavior of everything that brought unprecedented events such as unexpected war, epidemic, catastrophes etc. leading to death [1,2]. Measurement of several physical parameters of human and universal bodies has become routine but various functions/characters in relation to time has yet to measure fully. This is the point we fall short to save humans promptly resulting high number of unexpected loss of life such as in COVID-19 pandemic. Among 1554960 covid-19 infected population in more than 209 countries, territories and two conveyances 5.9% died, and among the deaths more than 80% occurring in just 10 countries (USA, Spain, Italy, Germany, France, China, Iran, UK, Belgium, Netherlands) of the world in the last three months duration [2].

Disease is an abnormal architecture/anatomy, function, condition of the body and mind in a specific duration. Many times and circumstances death occurs due to unprecedented cause, behavior or ignorance. Therefore, it is essential to know the unknown environment and diverse nature and behavior of human beings to diagnose epidemicity of the disease. Despite vast scientific discoveries and new achievement, there is a big hole in the measurement of core human behavior and intelligence. Human body, intelligence and behavior plays a great role in the defense mechanism as well as association in the causation, development, cessation of disease in specific duration in specific place/s. So far we are devoid of the precise knowledge on the creation of covid-19 however many scientists have been trying to explore the mystery of the occurrences, nature and impact on the human population of the globe [3].

The duration or natural course of illness or diseases is important in the management of cases, carrier as well as prevention of complications and death [4]. Alert researchers identify the key factors of the disease when there is sudden rise of cases of similar features in a short period. Ignorance about the nature of pathogen and ignorance of the general population about the disease leads to higher number of deaths in a very short duration. Lack of alertness in changing behavior and environment of the disease in the population further complicates its management and increases the number of deaths. The challenge of the new disease, ignorance on the part of environment and human behavior help to expand disease dimensions in terms of time, place and person.

Opportunities such as chance, experience, observation and experimentation lead to discovery and development of medicine and care system that can make our life easier, comfortable and lengthier. This is the beauty of medical discipline, research and practice in human population. A dynamic patience where a body and brain searches a remedy continuously in response to disease is probably the best stimulus to initiate new knowledge, skills, practice to cure patient and prevent death. Lack of precise knowledge of duration and the nature of the disease is biggest obstacles in managing covid-19 at present and many more diseases that are possible in the future. Following the spread of disease and management of the patient (source) meticulously in global environment, recording the evidences and continuous sharing among the fellow researchers and responsible individuals are the most important aspects of pandemic control.

Alertness, continuous searches, dynamic patience can help humans to increase its capacity to deal with covid-19 pandemic. Change in seasonality in different geographical regions may affect duration of the diseases and distribution of death in humans. This demands thinking globally and acting globally.

Keywords

Covid-19, Death, Disease, Duration, Pandemic

References

  1. Riedel S (2004) Biological warfare and bioterrorism: a historical review. BUMCProceedings17: 400-406. [crossref]
  2. Covid-19 Coronavirus Pandemic, Worldometer. Accessed on April 09, 2020, 16:30 GMT.
  3. Zhou P, Yang X, Wang X, Hu B, Zhang L, et al. (2020) A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin. Nature579: 270-273. [crossref]
  4. Rothan HA,ByrareddySN (2020) The epidemiology and pathogenesis of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak. Journal of Autoimmunity109: 102433. [crossref]

Mapping Contextual Drivers of HIV Vulnerability: A Qualitative Study of African, Caribbean, Black Youth in Windsor, Canada

Abstract

Background: Based on POWER study: Promoting and owning empowerment and resilience among African, Caribbean, and Black Canadian (ACB) youth, this paper explored the contextual factors that expose ACB youth to HIV infection.

Method: We conducted six focused community-mapping sessions with 43 purposively drawn ACB youth living in Windsor, Canada. Based on socio-environmental approach, we investigated a number of issues including, where to find ACB people, places afraid to go, places to find casual partners, where they spend leisure time, healthy and unhealthy places.

Results: The findings showed that ACB population mainly resides in poor areas, with close proximity to bars, strip shops, recreational/sports places. And, multifaceted factors, such as economic deprivation, marginalization, discrimination, and substance use provided an enabling environment for ACB youth exposure to HIV/AIDS. Conclusion: Future HIV/AIDS prevention must be locality specific and culturally sensitive, by taking into account individual, structural, environmental and socio-cultural factors in future HIV prevention strategies.

Keywords

HIV/AIDS, ACB youth, Community mapping, Contextual factors

Introduction

According to 2018 HIV surveillance report in Canada, Ontario accounted for the highest population of HIV cases (39.2%), with the second highest reported cases among 20-29 at 22.5% Gay, bisexual and men who have sex with men (gbMSM) continue to account for the highest exposure to HIV 58.1%, while heterosexual transmission accounts for 32.3%, of which 15.4% are from HIV endemic countries [1]. Similarly in 2017, Ontario accounted for the highest population of new HIV cases (38.9%), and ACB people infected with HIV through heterosexual contact account for 20% of the estimated total of all HIV-positive people, and youth aged 15 to 29 accounted for 23% of HIV cases, and between 2016 to 2017 a 17% increase in 15 to 19 and 4% decrease among 20 to 29 [2]. More so, the Black population, which makes up 3.9% of the population accounts for 22.5% of persons living with HIV in the province [3]. It also has been estimated that in Ontario, Windsor diagnosis of HIV new cases of 5.7 was fifth, with Toronto having the highest diagnosis rate of 15.7 [4].

Community-based and participatory action research programs on HIV/AIDS risk behaviors have reported that mapping of locations with high concentrations of bars, shops, strip clubs, trucking places, sex workers and other geographical places is crucial in identifying at-risk places, groups, as well as, in designing and implementing effective and sustainable HIV prevention interventions [5]. Community mapping has been used to address development and health issues across multidisciplinary sectors, particularly health issues like infectious diseases [6-8] and HIV/AIDS [9,10]. Other focus of community mapping includes HIV prevention intervention [11,12], and health promotion [13], sex and HIV education [14].

However, mapping as a social research approach has become a growing basis for many interventions in developing countries/contexts, on development interventions to promote HIV prevention [15-17]. Community mapping is a mixed method approach that involves brainstorming and geographical mapping to visually present ACB youth ideas and perceptions of their vulnerability and resilience to HIV/AIDS. Participants actively participated in ensuring that the maps are explicit, representing and providing adequate knowledge that represents the diverse views of participants.

The present paper explores the factors that expose young ACB youth to HIV infection in a border city, Windsor, Ontario Canada. It focuses on individual, interpersonal, societal and environmental factors (e.g. access to resources, oppression, discrimination, poverty, and racism) that are often beyond the control of individuals [18-21].

Theoretical Perspectives

Based on socio-environmental approach, this paper recognizes that individual and collective health are intertwined, such that health disparities are the outcomes of intersecting social determinants including neighborhoods, access to economic and social resources, everyday encounters of discrimination and racism, and social exclusion [22]. Integral to this paper are the concepts of masculinity and vulnerabilities. According to UNAIDS [23], people’s vulnerability to HIV depends on their personal circumstances, societal factors such as disempowering cultural practices and laws, and the extent to which they have access to appropriate services and supports. However, the UNAIDS definition of HIV vulnerability neglects the role of structural determinants, such as various forms of social oppression, deprivation, and poverty [24]. This paper measures vulnerability in terms of individual attributes such as self-esteem, personal competence, optimism, and related attributes. The focus on individual factors makes invisible those situational and socio-environmental factors (e.g. cultural safety, access to resources, social capital, intergenerational trauma) that are often beyond the control of individuals [21].

Methodology

Study Community

Windsor, located in southwestern region of Ontario, and has also been identified as has one the highest rates of immigrants proportional to its population, having the sixth largest concentration of people who have ancestral ties to Africa [25]. According to Statistics Canada (2011) [26], Windsor has the highest proportion (33.3%) of low-income population living in very low-income neighborhoods. Windsor with the fifth highest HIV diagnosis rate (5.7) among new cases is also a border town with Detroit, Michigan, USA, which has 603 positive sero-status persons per 100,000 people [27]. In addition, its low legal age for alcohol and tobacco consumption, attracts young Americans to visit Windsor bars regularly on weekends and has opened more avenues for social and sexual networking [28]. This networking is likely to create unique local issues. Therefore, it becomes crucial to conduct a study that focuses on Windsor because issues such as youth’s and parents’ socioeconomic status, inter-country migration or mobility, social hubs, and diversity may nurture cross-border politics and relations.

This study is based on the community mapping of a larger CIHR (2009-2012) funded project on “Promoting and owning empowerment and resilience among African, Caribbean and Black youth in Windsor (POWER)”. Engagement process began by organizing a public forum for ACB youth and community based organizations and stakeholders. At the public forum, we developed a list of volunteers to serve in the Youth Advisory Committee (YAC). YAC became a bridge that links the project to the study communities, target population (youth) and promoted participatory involvement of youth at all levels of the research process. We provided a brief overview of the project and particularly the community-based approach that focus on partnering with the communities and target group as significant actors in the project implementation.

Data Collection

Two investigators and three staff undertook six focused community mapping group sessions between May and November 2015 with 18-24 years ACB youth living in Windsor. The six group sessions comprised of Youth Advisory Committee (YAC) of university of Windsor students (7), St Claire College (7), Caribbean non-students (7), Black non-students (8) and African non-student (7). Purposive sampling was used to recruit a total of 43 participants. Each group session comprised of homogenous participants in terms of racial/ethnic groups and student status. Two project staff facilitated after being trained over one-week training on community mapping. Each focused group session included seven to eight participants of the same ethno-racial group organizations and student status. Two staff and one investigator facilitated the focused sessions. To begin each session, facilitators introduced the community mapping methodology, including a de-briefing on what the project purpose and goals. Facilitators used a focused semi-structured guide containing prompt questions to lead the discussions, exploring commonalities and differences across the conversation. After each session, the project team debriefed with facilitators, providing additional coaching on issues or ideas that arose during the session. Going around the table, each participant was giving the opportunity to contribute to the discussions. Participants were provided with sticky notes to put down their response if too shy to speak out. Participants had ample uninterrupted time to respond promptly. Participants as a group placed some of their answers on the map of Windsor. Each session lasted between 90 and 120 minutes. The language of communication was English. We took notes and audio taped the discussions. We served snacks and paid participants stipend of $25, which included $5 for transportation.

Data Analysis

The staff transcribed the audio recordings verbatim. Two investigators verified the transcripts for accuracy. Project coordinator created the codebook used for coding the transcripts. We used pattern coding by Miles and Huberman (1991) to summarize each transcript. Codes were compiled to record the experiences and perceptions of barriers that tend to expose ACB youth to HIV/AIDS. Staff and two investigators re-examined the coded transcripts for accuracy. And, N6 qualitative software, online coding and data management was used to organize and code the transcripts. The coding process resulted in the identification of the data supporting the emergent themes and the corresponding quotations buttressing the arguments. We made a table of emergent themes, sub-themes and corresponding quotations, which was further reviewed by staff and one investigator for validation. The team overseeing the community mapping read and re-read the themes against the quotations to identify the pattern of arguments.

Results and Discussion

Background of Participants

Table 1 shows that participants of African heritage make up the majority (51.2 percent), those of Black heritage were 23.3%, while Caribbean were 20.9% and only 4.6% classified themselves as of mixed heritage. Additionally, in terms of gender, males were 55.8% and females were 19%. All the sessions were held in a place of close proximity to the participants. For example for university of Windsor and St. Claire College, the sessions were held in the two campuses, while others tended to be held at downtown Windsor.

Table 1: Participants’ Background Characteristics.

Characteristics

Frequency

Percent

Race/Ethnicity (N= 43)

No.

 

African

22

51.2

Black

10

23.3

Caribbean

9

20.9

Mixed

2

4.6

Gender (N=43)
Female

19

44.2

Male

24

55.8

Places to Find ACB People

The study probed for the places where ACB people commonly lived. The participants reported that ACB people commonly resided in places where there were affordable housing, with close proximity to social institutions and amenities such as schools, recreations centers. Government provided most of affordable housing tailored to income of tenants. Public maintenance of these housings was timely and at no extra cost to the tenant. More importantly, it was a common practice for newcomers to seek and identify residential places populated by ACB people. Participants identified the west, around sandwich, central and downtown areas as the places to find most ACB people, while they are sparsely located in South Wood Lake area, where the wealthy and affluent ACB families reside. More ACB people are congregated in the west end/Sandwich, central and downtown, which are crime and poverty-ridden areas. They also noted that a high population of ACB youth, as students, wage earners and those not gainfully employed resided in these areas, either alone or with parents/guardians. Participants also reported a number of social vices such as availability and accessibility to drugs like marijuana, partying, and sex work, which are common around affordable housing places. These social vices expose ACB youth to risk behavior and HIV infection.

In terms of their opinion on living in these places, there were varied ideas. In the Black Canadian mapping session, participants described these areas as: Dirty, lot of prostitutes, Rough area that used to be more violent back in (10), it’s a bad area, prostitution, people get robbed beat up all the time (13), it’s so retched, ghetto, lots of poverty, No money or jobs are here, A lot of drugs and violence.

The YAC Group Noted That

There are a lot of young people; a lot of influence, peer pressure, drugs, sports, unprotected sex, good or poor academics, some of the neighborhoods are associated with public housing, immigrant settlement, Glengarry has a waterpark, STAG, community centers, where people can go, ———————, black people are excluded from networking (union)

In the University Students’ Session, a Participant Noted

Relatively impoverished; roads and everything is poorly cared; not much of the city funds go there; a little dangerous; its more affordable; but there is always some type of altercation on my lawn or across the street; I just assumed I would find something more affordable in West Windsor; familiar; they might also feel they can find someone they can relate to (Female Caribbean).

While in the Non-student Group Session, a Participant Added

Black people are spread out in little areas; West Windsor; bad; but I think it is inclusive, culturally sensitive a good place; unkempt; drugs, boarded houses; not true; there is Windsor housing for immigrants.

Discrimination and Contact with the Police

Despite the importance of social networking with friends and peers, participants reported that the presence of ACB youth in predominantly white residential neighborhoods at out-skirts of Windsor, high-end stores, and electronic sections/units of departmental stores, grocery stores and around police stations raises suspicion. Other places identified where teen health center and blood clinic (cited by University group), and prisons (African non-students). The common reasons provided for avoiding these areas are to avoid confrontations with the police, and confrontations involving wrong identity. Participant noted that “If a conflict/confrontation occurs- automatically the Black person(s) will be confronted even though the fight was from another race” (African female session). Other youth reported that “violence and crime” are high at downtown Windsor, and ACB youth are often the first suspects.

Participants also reiterated their experiences with the police in a number of places such as residential areas around downtown, west end, university areas; clubs – Boom Boom, house parties; highways and other places such as the mall and stores. Often such encounters with peers and relatives end up as mistaken identity, or it involves highway offense and road checks. A youth noted that with police in Windsor, “they think all Blacks look alike” (African Female, AF). A participant reported that there was a time when a “girl’s house was robbed; a dozen police car were present, the last one had a gun pulled out, stopped us for an hour, asked foolish questions, and said you fit the description”.

A participant also noted an incident downtown, where ACB boys were hanging out at “McDonalds with white girls, cops harassed us, told us to go home or be arrested for loitering, and promised to call the girl’s parents.” Police officers would stop an ACB youth and say, “Are you up to something? Are you from Somalia?” (African Male) A student participant also noted: “walking home from university, 20 minutes-walk from home, 2am I was questioned about seeing someone in the area” (AM).

Where do Youth Spend their Free Time?

In response to the question, “where do youth spend their free time?” participants highlighted a number of places in west of Windsor, such as Sandwich and downtown areas where ACB youth most frequently spend their free time. These places included bars, clubs, strip shops, parks, and sport centers like St. Denis center at the University of Windsor and YMCA, house parties, malls, University library – Leddy and at the theaters. These were common meeting places where they engage in social and sexual networking with each other. Data also showed gender differences as males frequented more places for sports and clubbing, while females tended to patronize places that are less costly, for dancing and were often in company with older siblings and friends. During the walking tours of these areas, the research team and staff were informed that other ACB youth residing in other places in Windsor tended to visit and congregate in these areas to be in company of other peers and friends. We also probed for healthy and unhealthy places in Windsor. The participants reported diverse settings. The healthy places ranged from sport places like gyms at YMCA and St. Denis of the University of Windsor; leisure places like STAG, water front located at downtown Windsor; faith-based institutions-churches and mosques, NGO offices like Windsor Women Working With Immigrant Women, Women Entrepreneur Skills Training, New Canadian Center for Excellence, AIDS Committee of Windsor, Youth Connection Association, Salvation Army, and community centers like STAG, Caribbean center. For these youth, these places provided low cost services and were safe and fun places. However, they noted that unhealthy places included parks; downtown area, street allies, and places where many sex workers line the streets, and house parties. The reasons provided ranges from availability of drugs, sexual networking, and exposure to unhealthy behaviors such as sexual activities, drugs and despicable behaviors such as sexing in public places like parks. A participant in identifying what makes these places unhealthy said: Downtown; drugs and alcohol; white women approach Black men; border city; girls from Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Detroit; 1 in 4 Americans have an STI; Black women give stink eye because it’s not healthy (sexually networking with men who have exposed themselves to “risky” White women); strip clubs; studio 4; Teasers; human and drug trafficking; leopards owns 2 houses; keep green cards in safe; European girls; you don’t know what they have; police department; racial profiling; west end (street level crime); university of Windsor; break ins and misdemeanours (Caribbean Black Male).

Where to Find Casual Sex Partners

Participants identified downtown area and facilities -bars, strip clubs, house parties, Studio 4, casino, riverside after hour, massage parlors, parking lots, university library and residences, High school, St Clair, workplaces – factories, street corners – next to Bistro, shops – sex shops (Maxine, Dougall), residential Areas – condos downtown, restaurants – McDonalds (Escorts) as places to find casual sex partners. These places have close proximity to places where ACB people reside provided easy access to “alcohol and casual sexual activity” (African Female, AF). A participant in the University community mapping session said:

You will be surprised at what goes on at this campus. A friend finds a message at Leddy “for a good time call this number” (African Male, AM).

Another participant added, “campus for variety and safety” (African Female, AF)

A participant from the university also said:

AM: bars, strip clubs; university (you would be surprised at what goes on at this campus); speaks about friend who finds a message at Leddy; “for a good time call this number; meet at a house;” (African Male, AM)

Silvers on Seminole, Casino (Caribbean Female, CF).

Secret Places for Secret Things

To the probe on the secret places where ACB visit and/or congregate to do secret things, not to be heard or known by their parents/guardians, the participants reported bars/s clubs, located in the Sandwich and downtown areas, and specifically university and college campuses where a variety of activities occurred including “alcohol and casual sexual activity” (AF), and youth solicitation for sexual activity. Other activities included drugs, illicit sex, unsafe sex, and prostitution, which are unhealthy and expose persons to STIs including HIV/AIDS. The common reason given for engaging in these activities at these places is that they are “away from home and parents and no need to keep good name”.

P4 AF: residence; houses near campus; sell drugs; Askin street near the university; friends of friends; word of mouth

P1 BM: university; residence; college life involves it; alcohol and weed; houses right by campus

P6 CF: apartments on Peter Street; people come in and out at odd hours

P5 ACF: parks; accessible for sex and drugs

P7 AM; coronation school pike park; when house party ends, can go there to be loud or drink

CBM: Riverfront (car sex); hotels on Huron church (strippers from Ottawa, nova scotia); downtown Windsor condos by police station (drugs); Wyandotte and Windermere (S and M club); massage parlours downtown; houses in west end (coke spots); south Windsor (behind Devonshire mall area; cocaine); Banwell (ecstasy).

Discussion

Community mapping sessions and walking tours provided the researchers and staff a journey into the lived experiences and observations of ACB youth in Windsor, Ontario. The common thread in these accounts and activities was the social inequality, which was more along racial lines that tended to create social exclusion, perpetuating feelings of discrimination and overt racism, which have been reported to have serious impact on ACB communities particularly youth [18,19,29,30] and their attitude to the police [31]. Although these experiences results in lack of entitlement and privilege, thus threatening the social existential survival of ACB population, particularly youth, the community mapping strategies, gave back to these youth some elements of power not just as research participants but also as researchers in the front drive of data collection, informing and making contributions to all stages in the project.

The findings that neighborhoods’ context and organization promote ACB youth vulnerability to HIV infection has been buttressed by similar findings from existing studies from the United States and Canada depicting the influence of neighborhood environment and social disorder [19,20,32] neighborhood economic disadvantage [33-35] on HIV exposure.

The study also reported that the proliferation of some neighborhoods densely populated by ACB populations with bars, street allies, abandoned houses, availability and accessibility to drugs and alcohol, perpetuate risky behaviors like drug and alcohol use, accessibility and availability of female sex workers. Of significance is the report by participants that there have been rape cases of male and female victims in such neighborhoods due to bad people hiding in abandoned properties, and coercing or luring young persons and children into such places. Similarly, a few studies [36-38] suggest that physical environment influences sexual risk and HIV vulnerability. For instance [36], study notes that characteristics of the urban environment influence a wide variety of health behaviors and disease outcomes. They contend that the physical, social and cultural characteristics of urban environment have tolerant social policies through which behaviors and identities may be enacted with less fear. Also noted that inadequately housed individuals tend to be socially isolated or involved in networks that support risky behaviors such as drug use, unstable intimate relationships, multiple sex partners, casual sex exchange and low rates of marriage [39].

The present study also found that a majority of ACB population resides in affordable housing for low to medium very income people families. According to Statistics Canada (2011) [26], Windsor as a town has the highest proportion of low-income populations living in very low-income neighborhoods. Research evidence also shows that people living in very low-income neighborhoods appear to have higher HIV risk profile than those living in higher income areas [18]. Similarly, studies from North America also bear credence to the findings by its association of poverty from social and economic deprivation with HIV risk behaviors [39,40].

Of great importance are past evidence that local bars in Windsor, which attracts youth across the border due to its lower age for alcohol consumption increases the scope of social and sexual networking among Canadian and American youth [28]. Noting that the HIV prevalence rate is very high across Windsor’s border city of Detroit (35 new cases per 100,000 residents), and coupled with the early initiation of sex in youth and the poor attitude to and low use of condoms [27,41] the networking between the two cities is likely to increase the exposure of youth to HIV infection. In addition, participants reported going to hidden places away from parents and homes to use drugs, party and indulge in sexual activity. These findings have been documented in other empirical studies showing that young boys and girls use drugs like marijuana and alcohol, which may affect their decision-making [42], and invariable lead to risky behaviors including anal sex [43-46], violence [47-51], unprotected sex [52], and having casual and/or opportunistic sex [53-58].

Finally, low parent-child communication on sex also matters. It has been well documented that there is lack of sex talks in families and particularly between parents and children [59-61]. This gap exposes younger ACB youth to risky sexual behaviors such as low condom use and ability to negotiate sex, which has been reported to have serious sexual and reproductive heath consequences like exposure to sexually transmitted infections including HIV/AIDS. However, existing studies on Caribbean population have shown parents willingness to talk about sex and related issues with children [62]. And, it has been reported that parents talk about sex with children leads to abstinence, postponement of sexual initiation, positive attitude to safe sex practices including condom use, and engagement in monogamous relationships [63-68]. Invariably, parent-child communication about sex better prepares children when faced with the decision to have or not to have sex [69]. On the contrary, other studies however reported that some parents feel talking about sex matters with their children and adolescents will introduce them into sexual activities and therefore, they avoid such conversations [64,70]. Although studies remain inconclusive on the outcomes of parent-child talk about sex matters, parental efficacy to improve effective parent-child communication about sex matters remains important [71-85].

Conclusion

For decades, many HIV prevention research focused on determining, planning and implementing interventions to address individual-level risk behaviors that expose individuals to HIV infection. This present study indicates the importance in examining the environment, social and cultural impediments influencing risky behaviors. African, Caribbean and Black youth in Windsor, specifically young men face pressure from parents and families on children to conform to the social and cultural gendered expectations that makes you a woman (practicing abstinence) and a real man, like being the provider, economically stable, having multiple sex partners, and engaging in unprotected sex, which invariably are likely to increase exposure to HIV infection. This gives credence to this study that engaged AB youth as both research participants and as researchers, through membership in the Youth Advisory Committee, and actively engaged in recruiting and participating in community mapping and walking tours. More future research need to adopt a mixed method approach, which includes community and/or concept mapping, and other qualitative methods like focus groups, in-depth interviews, photovoice, and questionnaire to study specific subgroups of ACB population like self-identified heterosexual ACB youth, men and women, on a broader scale, provincially or regionally. So doing, we will then be able to establish the differences and similarities across space, neighborhood, race/ethnic subgroups, religion, class and gender in the general population.

The mapping and construction of factors in the environment, neighborhoods, social and cultural contexts among ACB boys, men, girls and women would gain immensely from further investigations. Such interests may provide broader-based data on perceptions of HIV vulnerability, environment and neighborhood factors, with issues of masculinity, specifically perceptions of black masculinity and sexuality that affect sexual scripts, what having sex means, condom use decision making, opportunistic sex, and perceptions of HIV testing.

Furthermore, the findings from this study can begin to inform HIV prevention strategies among ACB youth on how best to increase HIV prevention services. Such programs will focus efforts on addressing multi-level factors by adopting multidimensional, effective and sustainable interventions, which address individual, social, cultural and environmental risky behaviors, like unsafe sexual practices (having multiple sex partners, lack of effective condom use), while also addressing and implementing policies and interventions to improve the environment, neighborhoods, and socio-cultural factors like perceptions of a real black man that hamper the delivery of HIV services aimed at buttressing the sexual and reproductive health of ACB population, specifically youth.

Acknowledgements

Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) provided the funding. The ACBY team includes Kenny Gbadebo, Youth Connection Association; Eleanor Maticka-Tyndale, University of Windsor; Valerie Pierre-Pierre, African Caribbean Council of HIV in Ontario; Robb Travers, Wilfrid Laurier University; Jelani Kerr, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY. Thanks to the study participants for their contribution. The content is solely the responsibility of the author.

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Sources of Information and Health Care Experiences Related to COVID-19 among Women Involved in Criminal Legal System in Three U.S. Cities

Abstract

Women in the United States criminal legal (CL) system are at the nexus of several drivers of the COVID-19 pandemic, including incarceration, poverty, chronic illness and racism. There are 1.25 million women incarcerated or on community supervision (probation or parole) in the U.S. We present findings regarding the impact of COVID-19 on women in the CL system (N=344) during the early days of the pandemic. Participants were drawn from community settings in an ongoing study of cervical cancer risk in three U.S. cities: Birmingham, Alabama, Oakland, California and Kansas City, which straddles the states of Kansas and Missouri. Regional differences were found in COVID-19 testing and perceived susceptibility to the virus, but not in COVID-related disruptions to health care. We found differences by race/ethnicity in trusted sources of information about COVID. Black women had higher odds of choosing TV as their most trusted source of information, while White women were more likely to cite government or social service agencies as their most trusted source. Notably, 15% of women said they did not trust any source of information regarding COVID-19. COVID-19 disproportionately impacts populations with high levels of mistrust towards medical and government institutions, a result of the twin legacies of medical mistreatment and structural racism. Our findings underscore the need for innovative strategies to reach these groups with accurate and timely information.

Keywords

Health communication, COVID-19, Criminal justice, Racial disparities, Trust, Women

Introduction

As of 2017, there were 1.25 million women under control of the criminal legal (CL) system in the United States, including over 225,000 women in jails or prisons [1,2] and over a million women under community supervision (probation or parole) [3]. Women involved in the CL system live at the nexus of several drivers of the U.S. COVID-19 pandemic, including incarceration, poverty, chronic illness and racism [4]. They are predominantly low-income and disproportionately women of color [5]. They have markedly higher rates of underlying chronic health conditions, associated with poor COVID-19 outcomes, than women in the general population [6,7]. In addition, hundreds of thousands of women transition between community and carceral settings each year [8], and prisons and jails continue to be revealed as hotbeds of COVID-19 transmission [9]. Thus, COVID-19 is very much a pertinent risk for women who are involved in the CL system in the U.S [10].

In the U.S., the story of COVID-19 is one of distinct and marked racial/ethnic disparities, with Black and Hispanic/Latinx people afflicted by disproportionately high rates of infection [11-13] and death [14,15], In addition, the socioeconomic consequences of COVID-19, such as loss of employment and eviction from housing, disproportionately affect people of color [16,17] People of color are also overrepresented among those employed in jobs with high risk of exposure, such as home health aides, cashiers and meat packing workers [18]. Another central theme of the pandemic in the U.S. is the lack of a coordinated national response, leading to different policies and public health mandates in different regions of the country. The lack of a single authoritative source of guidance contributes to confusion and people relying on widely divergent sources of information about the virus. With this backdrop, we sought to understand how women with CL involvement were affected by COVID-19 early in the pandemic. Specifically, we examined how COVID-19 had affected their health care and what sources of information about the virus they relied on. The purpose was to determine whether there were regional or racial/ethnic differences in these outcomes, to help inform health care and communication efforts.

Materials and Methods

Research participants were enrolled in an ongoing, three-city study of cervical cancer risk among women involved in the CL system, funded by the National Cancer Institute (R01CA226838). Data are collected annually with a cohort of women in community settings in three U.S. cities: Kansas City (Midwest), Birmingham (South) and Oakland (West). In response to anecdotal evidence about challenges and disruptions created by the pandemic in the study population, we conducted a brief supplemental survey (5-10 mins) over eight weeks from mid-April to mid-June 2020. Interviews were conducted by telephone rather than in person due to shelter-in-place orders. Participants received a $20 incentive for responding to the survey. Regular check-ins with participants was a routine part of the research protocol and was approved in accordance with the National Institutes of Health single institutional review board policy for multisite research.

Measures

The primary independent variables were race/ethnicity and study site (city). Participants were asked “How do you identify in terms of your race or ethnicity (select all that apply)?” and read a list of several different racial/ethnic groups. We used responses to create a three-level nominal categorical variable race variable. A majority of participants endorsed one race, predominantly Black or White. Small numbers of women reported more than one race (n=10), Latinx only (n=17), American Indian or Alaska Native (n=1), or Asian or Pacific Islander (n=4). We combined these women into a single category as “Other People of Color (POC).” While useful for analytic purposes, we do not draw conclusions about this group in our findings, as we would be generalizing from numerous racial/ethnic backgrounds. Site was determined by the city in which interviews were conducted. To assess health care utilization, participants were asked “Has a health care provider canceled or postponed any regular appointments due coronavirus?” and “Have any of your health care appointments been conducted by phone or video (Telemedicine) instead of in person, due to the coronavirus?” which were both coded yes vs. no. Perceived susceptibility to COVID-19 was assessed with an item which asked, “On a scale of 1-10, how likely do you think you are to get the coronavirus, with 1 being not at all likely and 10 being certain to get it?” Dependent variables related to sources of information about COVID-19. Participants were asked, “What are your sources of information about COVID-19? (select all that apply)” and read a list of potential sources. Each source was dichotomized yes vs. no. To determine most trusted source of information, participants were asked a follow-up question, “Which single source do you trust the most?” Rather than use a multi-level variable, we dichotomized these responses (most trusted y/n) for a more precise examination of associations.

Data Analysis

Descriptive statistics were conducted for all study variables. Logistic regressions were used to determine the unadjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the associations between outcomes and race. Adjusted ORs and 95% CIs for the associations between outcomes and race were examined controlling for study site, age, and other relevant factors (depending on the model). Analyses were run in STATA Version 16.1 (Stata Corp., College Station, TX, USA).

Results

We successfully reached 73% of the study cohort by telephone during the data collection period, for a sample of 344 women (Table 1). Race/ethnicity varied by site, with more White women in Kansas City and Birmingham. Mean age also varied by site, with a mean of 39 years in Kansas City, 40 in Birmingham and 46 in Oakland. All women had histories of criminal legal involvement, most having experienced both incarceration and community supervision (probation or parole). Women in Oakland were more likely to have health insurance, a result of California expanding Medicaid coverage under the Affordable Care Act in 2014. Despite this, three-quarters of all women had attended at least one health care visit by appointment in the past year. In addition, over half had sought care at a hospital Emergency Department (Table 1).

Table 1: Participant characteristics and health care by racial group.

All Black White Other POC p.
(N=344) (n=205) (n=98) (n=41)
n (%) n (%) n (%) n (%)
Oakland 181 (52.8) 146 (71.2) 16 (16.3) 19 (47.5) 0.001
Birmingham 93 (27.1) 35 (17.1) 53 (54.1) 5 (12.5)
Kansas City 69 (20.1) 24 (11.7) 29 (29.6) 16 (40.0)
Ever incarcerated 332 (96.5) 197 (97.0) 94 (96.9) 41 (100.0) 0.530
Ever probation or parole 315 (91.6) 183 (90.2) 92 (93.9) 40 (97.6) 0.205
Has health insurance 251 (73.0) 177 (86.8) 42 (43.3) 32 (78.1) 0.001
Health care by appointment past year 263 (76.5) 173 (84.4) 59 (60.2) 31 (75.6) 0.001
Medical appointment cancelled or postponed due to COVID-19 146 (42.4) 104 (50.7) 30 (30.6) 12 (29.3) 0.001
Medical care by tele-medicine due to COVID-19 152 (44.2) 108 (52.7) 30 (30.6) 14 (34.2) 0.001
Tested for COVID-19 66 (19.2) 44 (21) 12 (12) 4 (10) 0.054

Health Care Since COVID-19

Nearly half of women reported having medical appointments postponed or cancelled due to the COVID outbreak. However, many women also reported receiving health care by telemedicine (Table 2). The odd of having an appointment cancelled or postponed was significantly higher among Black women, after controlling for location, age and health insurance (Table 3). However, Black women also had higher odds of having a telemedicine appointment as a consequence of the outbreak. We found no differences by geographical region in COVID-related impacts on scheduled health care, once we controlled for race, age and health insurance (data not shown). Sixty (17%) of the women had been tested for COVID over the data collection period (April-June 2020), a timeframe in which testing resources were scarce. Two women reported a positive result. Testing was more common in Oakland, where 23% of women were tested, compared to 13% in Kansas City and 11% in Birmingham (p=0.027). Perceived susceptibility to COVID-19 was low overall: on a scale of 1 (not at all likely) to 10 (extremely likely), the mean score was 3.7 [SD 2.8]. Women in Oakland rated their susceptibility slighter higher (4.1) than women in Kansas City (3.2) or Birmingham (3.6) (p=0.041). There were no significant racial/ethnic differences in perceived susceptibility (data not shown).

Table 2: Most trusted source of information about COVID-19 by racial/ethnic group.

All Black White Other POC p.
(N=344) (n=205) (n=98) (n=41)
n (%) n (%) n (%) n (%)
Television news 147 (42.7) 104 (50.7) 31 (31.6) 12 (29.3) 0.001
Social media or websites 35 (10.2) 17 (8.3) 10 (10.2) 8 (19.5) 0.095
Friends/family 18 (5.2) 8 (3.9) 7 (7.1) 3 (7.3) 0.404
Government/social service agency 30 (8.7) 8 (3.9) 17 (17.4) 5 (12.2) 0.001
Medical provider 44 (12.8) 21 (10.2) 16 (16.3) 7 (17.1) 0.227
Other 17 (4.9) 10 (4.9) 5 (5.1) 2 (4.9) 0.996
Don’t trust any source 52 (15.1) 36 (17.6) 12 (2.2) 4 (9.8) 0.286

Table 3: Logistic regression of COVID-19 related health care experiences by race/ethnicity.

Model 1 Model 2 Model 3
Care cancelled/postponed Telemedicine visit Tested for COVID-19
AOR* (95% CI) p. AOR* (95% CI) p. AOR** (95% CI) p.
Race/ethnicity
African American Referent Ref Ref
White 0.53 (0.29-0.98) 0.045 0.50 (0.27-0.92) 0.027 0.85 (0.37-1.94) 0.698
Other POC 0.43 (0.20, 0.93) 0.033 0.56 (0.27-1.19) 0.131 0.54 (0.18-1.66) 0.181

*Adjusted for study site, insurance status and had 1> medical appointment past year.

**Adjusted for study site, age and insurance status.

Sources of Information about COVID-19

Most women reported multiple sources of information about COVID-19, with a mean of 2.4 [SD 1.1]. Television news was the most frequently cited source of information regarding COVID-19 (83%), followed by social media/websites (61%) and friends/family (43%). Other sources of information included government or social service agencies (21%), medical providers (19%) and radio (6%). When asked to identify their single most trusted source of information, over half of women chose television news (Table 2). While many women endorsed friends and family as a source of information, very few (5%) cited them as their most trusted source. Similarly, a relatively small proportion of women (13%) said medical providers were their most trusted source of information about COVID-19. Black women had higher odds of choosing TV as the most trusted source than the other groups of women, after controlling for age and study site (Table 4). White women had higher odds of citing government or social service agencies as their most trusted source of information (Table 4). It is noteworthy that fifteen percent of women said they did not trust any source of information about COVID-19. This was higher among Black women but did not reach statistical significance in regression controlling for age and site. We found no significant regional differences in information sources or most trusted sources once controlling for race and age in regression analysis (data not shown).

Table 4: Logistic regression models of most trusted source of COVID-19 information by race/ethnicity.

Model 1 Model 2 Model 3
Television News Web/social media Gov’t/social service
AOR* (95% CI) p. AOR* (95% CI) p. AOR* (95% CI) p.
Race/ethnicity
African American Referent Ref Ref
White 0.33 (0.18,0.59) 0.001 1.61 (0.62,4.21) 0.328 7.48 (2.61, 21.38) 0.001
Other POC 0.39 (0.18,0.85) 0.018 2.91 (1.10,7.69) 0.031 2.90 (0.79,10.64) 0.108

*Adjusted for study site and age.

Discussion

Our examination of health care-related effects of COVID-19 among women with CL involvement found mixed results. While over 40% of women reported having health care appointments cancelled or postponed due to COVID-19, a roughly equal proportion received care by telemedicine, and there were no differences by region. This is consistent with a rapid uptick in telehealth visits for publicly insured people in urban areas throughout the U.S. in April-June 2020 [19]. The higher prevalence of COVID-19 testing in Oakland is likely a reflection of the more aggressive stance California took towards controlling infection, compared to the Midwest (Kansas/Missouri) and Southern (Alabama) states. Given this higher level of activity to address the pandemic, it is not surprising that the mean level of perceived susceptibility to COVID-19 was also higher among women Oakland, CA. Our findings regarding trusted sources of COVID-19 information did not vary by region; however, they revealed some interesting variations by race/ethnicity. Black women were significantly less likely than White women to choose government institutions or social services agencies as their most trusted source of information about the virus. In addition, very few Black women identified health care providers as their most trusted source. The long history of racism in government and criminal justice policies in the United States likely contributes to this mistrust [20,21], as does the legacy of unequal treatment and abuse in U.S. medicine [20,22] Restorative work with communities of color is needed to address medical mistrust [23,24], particularly if a future vaccine is to be widely accepted among vulnerable groups [25]. Finally, it is striking that a notable proportion of women (15%) said they didn’t trust ANY source of information regarding COVID-19. This suggests an urgent need to investigate and implement innovative, non-traditional avenues for delivering public health information.

There are several substantial limitations to this study. While data were collected from women in different regions of the United States, the sample is not nationally representative of women involved in the CL system. Due to the exigencies of conducting data collection rapidly in the context of shelter-in-place orders, we were only able to reach three-quarters of women in the parent study. It is possible those we were unable to reach were having different experiences; for example, it is possible that some were hospitalized with the virus. The potential of socially desirable response choices is always present with self-report data, although our questions didn’t focus on typically stigmatized behaviors.

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought into sharp relief the underlying social drivers of poor health in the U.S., including racism, poverty and incarceration. In addition to affecting their health, these conditions affect the level of trust individuals put in social, medical and public health institutions. A U.S. national poll conducted in August 2020 found that, if a COVID-19 vaccine were made available, 45% of Black and 44% of Hispanic/Latinx people would not choose to be vaccinated, compared to 30% of Whites [26]. The need for accurate, trusted health communication to address this public health crisis is clear. It is incumbent on public health professionals to identify new, innovative avenues for public health messaging to vulnerable groups, and to improve the perceived trustworthiness of more traditional sources of information.

Acknowledgements

This research was supported by the U.S. National Cancer Institute (grant #R01CA226838) and the U.S. National Institute of Minority Health and Health Disparities (grant #R01MD010439). The authors thank the women who shared their experiences for the study, despite the disruption and uncertainty created by the COVID-19 pandemic.

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    4. Krieger N (2020) ENOUGH: COVID-19, Structural Racism, Police Brutality, Plutocracy, Climate Change—and Time for Health Justice, Democratic Governance, and an Equitable, Sustainable Future. American Journal of Public Health e1-e4. [crossref]
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Discharge Dilemma: COVID 19 Positive Patients from Hospital

Abstract

COVID 19 pandemic started as cluster of unexplained Pneumonia in Wuhan, China. More than 5 million cases have been reported so far. The disease process is variable, poorly understood and is evolving. It is highly infectious and main mode of transmission is person to person. Therefore, stringent public health measures have been in place such as social distancing, personal and hand hygiene, lockdown strategies etc to minimise the transmission. In hospital medicine, safe discharge and arranging a follow up of COVID positive patient poses a challenge and currently there are no clear guidelines available due to uncertainty of infectivity in patients (both immune competent and immune compromised). Safe discharging is very essential to restrict further cluster and outbreak of COVID19 in community.

Why is Safe Discharging Important? Infectivity and Transmission

WHO mission to China report mentioned that SARS-CoV-2 virus can be detected 1-2 days prior to onset of symptoms in nasal-oropharyngeal samples, can persist for 7-12 days in moderate cases and up to 2 weeks in severe cases [1]. Viral RNA is also detectable in faeces 4-5 weeks after symptom onset in approximately 30% of cases; however its clinical significance is not known [1]. In Singapore, prolonged viral shedding from upper airway aspirates was reported and in some cases up to at least 24 days after the onset of symptoms [2].Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from asymptomatic individuals (or individuals within the incubation period) has also been well documented [3].

Zouet all reported that viral load is similar in both symptomatic and asymptomatic groups. Patients with no or modest symptoms had detectable viral RNA for at least 5 days indicating risk of transmission from asymptomatic patients [4].

The biologic basis for this is supported by a study of a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in a long-term care facility, in which infectious virus was cultured from reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR)-positive upper respiratory tract specimens in pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic patients as early as six days prior to the development of typical symptoms [5]. There is no data or study to determine the longest documented transmission from an asymptomatic person. Viral RNA can persist over long periods of time in bodily fluids. This does not necessarily mean that the person is still infectious. Isolation of viruses in virus culture is needed to show infectivity. Based on the data obtained it is uncertain to determine when exactly the patient will be non-infective and if precautions are not placed can lead to further outbreaks in community, which can lead to further burden on health care facilities.

Clinical Problem

Suspected and positive COVID-19 patients attending hospitals are Isolated as per clear pathways and all necessary precautions are taken with appropriate PPE. Some patients have mild respiratory compromise with normal radiographs, some have bilateral infiltrates and some are intubated and ventilated in ICU/HDU. Some patients were admitted for other medical conditions in hospital and were screened for concerns (exposure to COVID patients or clinical concerns) and were positive.

The varied presentation, spectrum and uncertainty about the illness pose a clinical challenge to arrange a safe discharge and follow up. Some of the challenges faced by our COVID teamat time of discharge of COVID patient when medically fit, stable or do not need any intervention in hospital are:

• When do you discharge COVID positive patients?

• Where do you discharge the patients? e.gin clinical situations where an elderly patient living on their own or with little support who lost mobility due to recent bilateral pneumonia/significant illness or patient who are clinically very well but have a family member at home who is immunocompromised?

• When do the patients become clear of infection?

• Is the onset of symptom history from patient reliable or the reference point should be when they were positive?

• Do COVID positive patients need any follow up?

• When do you re-image them if they had infiltrates?

• Do they need any formal respiratory follow up and is there a need of lung function testing?

• If the patients develop any new symptoms after discharge and are presumed to be non-infective as per current guidelines and re-present to the hospital, should they be isolated and retested because that can potentially expose other admitted patients?

• If the repeat swab or re-presentation to hospital is negative, is one negative swab enough to admit them in a general ward?

• What about immunocompromised, and patients with persistently positive swabs? Is their infectivity similar to the immunocompetent patients?

Current Clinical Guidelines for De-isolation of COVID-19 Cases

COVID-19 patients discharge planning is done by taking into account the existing capacity of healthcare, laboratory and diagnostic resources and the epidemiological situation at the time of discharge in that particular area. Some of the current clinical guidelines for de-isolation are:

1) Ministero della salute, Consiglio Superiore di Sanità, Italy (28 February 2020) -A COVID-19 patient can be considered cured after the resolution of symptoms and 2 negative tests for SARS-CoV-2 at 24-hour intervals. For patients who clinically recover earlier than 7 days after onset, an interval of 7 days between the first and the final test is advised.

2) CDC USA (Interim guidance) – Negative rT-PCR results from at least 2 consecutive sets of nasopharyngeal and throat swabs collected ≥ 24 hours apart from a patient with COVID-19 (a total of four negative specimens) and resolution of fever, without use of antipyretic medication, improvement in illness signs and symptoms.

3) CHINA CDC– Patients meeting the following criteria can be discharged: Afebrile for >3 days, Improved respiratory symptoms, pulmonary imaging shows obvious absorption of inflammation, and nucleic acid tests negative for respiratory tract pathogen twice consecutively (sampling interval ≥ 24 hours).

After discharge, patients are recommended to continue 14 days of isolation management and health monitoring, wear a mask, live in a single room with good ventilation, reduce close contact with family members, eat separately, keep hands clean and avoid outdoor activities. It is recommended that discharged patients should have follow-up visits after 2 and 4 weeks.

4) European Centre of Disease Prevention and Control Guidelines:

• Clinical criteria (e.g. no fever for > 3 days, improved respiratory symptoms, pulmonary imaging showing obvious absorption of inflammation, no hospital care needed for other pathology, clinician assessment)

• Laboratory evidence of SARS-CoV-2 clearance in respiratory samples; 2 to 4 negative RT-PCR tests for respiratory tract samples (nasopharynx and throat swabs with sampling interval ≥ 24 hours). Testing at a minimum of 7 days after the first positive RT-PCR test is recommended for patients that clinically improve earlier.

• Serology: appearance of specific IgG when an appropriate serological test is available.

Recommendations

Our suggestion is to classify patients who are deemed suitable for discharge from hospital, into mild, moderate and severe category based on certain clinical and radiological features. Our suggestion is to discharge patients to home or convalescent facility depending on patient’s physical, functional and home situation.

Mild Cases

Patients with no radiographic abnormalities and patient who did not require supplemental oxygen or had exercise induced desaturation to be classified as mild cases prior to discharge.

Moderate Cases

Patients with infiltrates or abnormalities on imaging requiring supplemental oxygen, who do not have significant co-morbid condition and good functional baseline, who did not require assisted ventilation can be classed as Moderate Cases prior to discharge.

Severe Cases

Patients, who had severe illness requiring NIV/High Flow Nasal Cannula/Mechanical Ventilation or had significant co-morbid conditions, or have had decline in functional capacity due to severe illness, would be classified as Severe Cases of COVID infection.

A discharge for mild cases may be considered to home if patient can isolate himself at home (e.g. single room with good ventilation, face-mask wear, reduced close contact with family members, separate meals, good hand sanitation, no outdoor activities) with follow up phone calls by specially designated health care provider due to the risk of worsening of the clinical symptoms, keeping in view the delayed onset of cytokine storm.

Moderate cases may be discharged home if they can self isolate and they are provided with Pulse oximeters and thermometers for home monitoring for further 7 days. They should be linked in with specially designated clinical nurse specialist for twice daily monitoring of symptoms and recording parameters. If patients are technology savvy and able to update symptoms and parameters on App either on Smartphone or computer, an App can be designed for maintain data of such patients and monitored centrally.

In severe cases that have experienced functional decline in terms of mobility, cognition and activities of daily living should be discharged to step-down facility with rehabilitation and multidisciplinary facility (physiotherapy, occupational therapy, pulmonary rehabilitation and geriatrician input). If the patient is not able to self-isolate due to reasons such as living in accommodation with multiple people, hostel or with immunocompromised and elderly population discharge to step down/convalescent facility speciallydesignated for similar cases should be considered to minimise cluster of infections.

COVID positive patients who had infiltrates/pneumonia or opacification on chest radiograph should have a follow up imaging to look for resolution. The timing of repeat imaging is uncertain due to the phenomenon of viral shedding and unclear infectivity of the disease. Our suggestion would be to repeat radiography 8 weeks after the onset of symptoms as viral shedding has not been observed after 6 weeks.

Current evidence suggesting viral shedding in bodily fluids for 6 weeks makes de-isolation decision difficult. At present, de-isolation guidance are unclear with a lot of institutional variability. The timeframe for de-isolation can only be provided after robust clinical trials exploring the infectivity of viral shedding in the bodily fluids to avoid clustering and re-infection. Antibody testing seems to be of benefit in cases that are immunocompromised or were COVID positive for prolonged duration. Patients who were immunocompromised or remained COVID positive on re-swabbing should be isolated on the side of precaution if they re-present to the hospital with a different medical problem.

A COVID team consisting of member of representative of medical team, infection control, microbiologist, occupational therapist and public health should have a daily meeting to determine appropriate discharge to reduce burden on health care an prevent community outbreaks.

References

  1. World Health Organization (2020) Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Geneva: WHO.
  2. Young BE, Ong SWX, Kalimuddin S, Low JG, Tan SY, et al. (2020) Epidemiologic features and clinical course of patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 in Singapore. JAMA.
  3. Rothe C, Schunk M, Sothmann P, Bretzel G, Froeschl G, et al.(2020) Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in Germany.N Engl J Med 382: 970.
  4. Zou L, Ruan F, Huang M, Liang L, Huang H, et al. (2020) SARS-CoV-2 Viral load in upper respiratory specimens of infected patients. New England Journal of Medicine 382: 1177-1179. [crossref]
  5. Arons MM, Hatfield KM, Reddy SC, Kimball A, James A, et al.(2020) Presymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infections and Transmission in a Skilled Nursing Facility:N Engl J Med.

Severe Spinal Column Deformity from Scoliosis with Harrington Rods Implant

 

Severe scoliotic deformity of the thoracolumbar spine imposes a significant anesthesia challenge for non-spine surgery. Patients with severe scoliosis are at increased risk for perioperative morbidity and mortality due to underlying pulmonary and cardiac dysfunctions [1-3]. Stress, pain, mechanical ventilation, and surgery-induced inflammation can further increase the risk of postoperative cardiopulmonary failure. We present a preoperative chest radiograph demonstrating extensive thoracolumbar scoliosis with Harrington rods implant, anatomic distortion, and bony dysmorphism (Panel A, white arrow). The patient underwent a living donor kidney transplant under general anesthesia. Preoperative anesthesia and surgical planning is crucial and should focus on airway difficulty, ventilation management, positioning, new kidney location, and postoperative pain management.

The kidney transplant is a heterotopic transplant surgery meaning the kidney is placed in a different location than existing kidneys. The new kidney is on the right or left side of the abdomen to allow the donor kidney to be easily anastomosed surgically to blood vessels and the bladder of the recipient. Due to the extensive deformity of the spinal column and right chest wall (Panel B, black arrow), the operation was performed in the left lateral decubitus position. Moreover, the donor kidney was placed to the right iliac fossa to decrease the risk of left lung atelectasis, restricted breathing, and sprinting from pain.

Ultrasound-guided quadratus lumborum was difficult in this patient due to atrophy of trunk muscles, chronic scarring, and artifacts from the implant, which required careful assessment of anatomical landmarks to perform a successful nerve block.

AWHC-3-4-324-g001

References

  1. APA Bradford, David S, Tay B, Hu S (1999) Adult Scoliosis: Surgical Indications, Operative Management, Complications, and Outcomes. Spine24: 2617-2629. [crossref]
  2. Albert TJ, Purtill J, Mesa J, McIntosh T, Balderston RA (1995) Health outcome assessment before and after adult deformity surgery. A prospective study. Spine 20: 2002-2005. [crossref]
  3. Kulkarni Anand H, Ambareesha M (2007) Scoliosis and anaesthetic considerations. Indian Journal of Anaesthesia. 51: 486-495

Application of Drainage Position Ventilation and Real- Time Bedside Monitoring in Mechanical Ventilation of Patients Infected with nCov-19

Abstract

At present, the new coronavirus has spread to more than 200 countries and regions around the world. Up to now, no specific antiviral drugs are proved effective in defeating the new coronavirus, some measures, such as postural drainage ventilation, real-time bedside pulmonary ultrasound and chest electrical impedance monitoring may provide some new ideas for mechanical ventilation patients infected with new coronavirus.

Keywords

New coronavirus, ARDS, Mechanical ventilation, Bioelectrical impedance tomography, Pulmonary ultrasound

Etiology and Pathogenesis

The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) belongs to the beta genus of coronavirus, the S protein of the new coronavirus binds to the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor of human alveolar type II epithelial cells, and then enters into the cell to replicate and spread through respiratory droplets and contact [1].

Clinical Manifestation

Fever, dry cough and fatigue are the main symptoms of the people infected with novel coronavirus. Critically ill patients usually have dyspnea and (or) hypoxemia one week after the onset of the disease. Some patients can rapidly progress to acute respiratory distress syndrome, septic shock, uncorrectable metabolic acidosis, coagulation dysfunction and multiple organ failure [1].

Chest Imaging

Chest radiographs showed multiple small patch shadows and interstitial changes in the lungs, especially in the lateral pulmonary zone in the early stage of the patients infected with new coronavirus. Then it developed into multiple ground glass shadows and infiltration shadows in both lungs, and in severe cases, lung consolidation could occur [1-3].

Pulmonary Pathophysiology

Lung pathology showed focal hemorrhage and necrosis, marked proliferation of the type II alveolar epithelial cells in the lung tissue. Serous, fibrin exudates, and hyaline membrane formation were seen in the alveolar cavity; it could also be observed that the alveolar septal vascular congestion and edema, and some alveolar exudates organization and pulmonary interstitial fibrosis. Part of the bronchial mucosa epithelium was shed; mucus and mucus emboli could be seen in the bronchial lumen. A small number of alveoli were over-inflated, the alveolar septum was broken or the cysts were formed [4].

Thus, critically ill patients infected with new coronavirus may present abnormal pathophysiological changes such as obstructive ventilation disorder, lung gas exchange disorder, imbalanced ventilation blood flow ratio, and increased shunt.

Antiviral Therapy

During the emergency clinical trial of antiviral drugs, a number of randomized, double-blind, antiviral-placebo controlled studies have been carried out, but no antiviral drugs proved effective in treating the new coronavirus infection.

Mechanical Ventilation

Early and appropriate invasive mechanical ventilation is an important treatment for critically ill patients. In general, when PaO2/FiO2 is less than 150 mmHg, the effect of high flow oxygen therapy or noninvasive ventilation is not good, endotracheal intubation should be considered in time for invasive mechanical ventilation in severe and critical ill cases [2]. The strategies of lung protective mechanical ventilation and lung recruitment are implemented. If there is no contraindication, it is suggested to implement prone position ventilation at the same time. Prone position ventilation can improve oxygenation in patients with ARDS by increasing functional residual volume, improving ventilation/blood flow ratio (V/Q), reducing shunt (Qs/Qt), improving diaphragmatic movement and promoting secretion excretion. In the airway management, posture drainage and sputum suction by bronchoscope should be adopted to promote the sputum drainage and lung rehabilitation [2].

Lung Protective Mechanical Ventilation Strategy

The individualized strategy of mechanical ventilation is to adopt the most suitable methods or parameters in ventilation mode, lung recruitment, tidal volume, PEEP and mechanical ventilation posture for patients according to their different pathophysiological conditions, so as to achieve the best treatment effect. At present, low tidal volume, high PEEP, lung recruitment and prone position ventilation are widely used in patients infected with new coronavirus [2]. The characteristics of severe new coronavirus cases, such as inflammatory serous and fibrin exudate, exudate organization, pulmonary fibrosis, alveolar septum destruction, atelectasis and pulmonary bullae, coexist in the patients’ lung [4]. Large tidal volume is not suitable for patients infected with new coronavirus due to the potential mechanical ventilation lung injury [2]. The selection of PEEP should be guided by the best pulmonary mechanics, the reduction of pulmonary shunt, the improvement of oxygenation and the function of stable circulation, while the effect of pulmonary recruitment should be examined by CT, MRI, bioelectrical impedance tomography (EIT) and ultrasound imaging. In the process of lung recruitment, there is the possibility of lung over inflation and the original pulmonary injury aggravation, and the effect on the hemodynamics should be concerned at the same time. The optimal method, opportunity and parameters of lung recruitment have not been determined, but it is necessary to judge the potential of pulmonary reinflation under real-time bedside EIT and ultrasound pulmonary monitoring.

The Advantage of Real Time Bedside Monitoring of EIT and Ultrasound

The goal-oriented mechanical ventilation is to adjust the mechanical ventilation strategy in time with the aim of imaging, respiratory and oxygen dynamics monitoring, blood gas examination, the function of circulatory system and the condition of other organs [2]. Blood oxygen saturation, blood gas, hemodynamics and respiratory mechanics are still routine and convenient monitoring methods of mechanical ventilation. Traditional lung images, such as X-ray, CT, MRI, certainly have the characteristics of clear images and easy analysis and diagnosis, but they are complicated to operate under the special circumstances of isolation and transportation of patients infected with new coronavirus. The chest electrical impedance tomography cannot provide clear image, but it is convenient to operate and can be continuously imaged [5]. Ultrasound lung images also have unique advantages in the diagnosis of pneumonia and the effect of ventilation [6]. These two methods can be real-time bedside monitoring, which are simple and practical to guide lung recruitment, to diagnose pneumonia, and to evaluate the mechanical ventilation effectiveness. In addition, while monitoring respiratory mechanics and oxygenation parameters during mechanical ventilation, we should pay close attention to the corresponding changes in the circulatory system and make timely adjustments.

Electrical Impedance Tomography

Electrical Impedance Tomography (EIT) is to use the impedance changes of living organisms or biological tissues, biological organs, and biological cells under the action of a safe current below the excitability threshold to obtain the organism internal resistance rate of distribution and changing images through image reconstruction [5,7]. The resistivity of different tissues or the same tissue under different physiological and pathological conditions is different. The periodic changes of air and blood flow in the lungs together determine the changes in the electrical impedance of the chest. The advantage of EIT lies in the use of the rich physiological and pathological information carried by bio-impedance to obtain damage-free functional imaging and medical image monitoring. Chest X-rays and CT are widely used in the diagnosis of lung infections. But they cannot monitor lung lesions in real time, cannot measure lung ventilation status, and most importantly cannot be used in patients with severe pneumonia and respiratory failure who cannot easily access these examination, so their application are limited. Lung EIT, as a brand new medical imaging technology, which is different from traditional imaging technology and conventional lung function monitoring, has outstanding features such as injury-free, portable, low-cost, functional imaging, and image monitoring. EIT can real-time dynamic monitor the pulmonary ventilation and blood flow distribution, evaluate the effectiveness of clinical treatment methods such as mechanical ventilation by measuring electrical resistance under different ventilation conditions [5,7].

At present, the commonly used methods to monitor the effectiveness of lung recruitment strategy and the suitability of PEEP include arterial blood gas analysis, peripheral oxygen saturation, pulmonary and chest maximum compliance, static pressure volume curve and so on, but these methods cannot meet the requirements of dynamic monitoring of regional lung perfusion. A number of studies have showed that in mechanical ventilation patients with ARDS, EIT has been used to accurately measure the whole lung and regional lung ventilation distribution, to show the influence of PEEP changes on alveolar expansion and collapse by gradually increasing and decreasing PEEP level, and in the end to obtain the optimal value of PEEP, which improves the ratio of ventilation and blood flow (V/Q), and plays an important role in individulized lung protective ventilation strategy [5,7].

Pulmonary Ultrasound

Bedside lung ultrasound can be used for the diagnosis and differential diagnosis of various lung diseases by using a low-frequency convex probe of 3 to 5 MHz and a high-frequency linear probe of 8 to 12 MHz [8]. Normal lung ultrasound images include bat sign, lung sliding sign, and A-line. Pathological images mainly include abnormal pleural lines, pulmonary consolidation, interstitial syndrome, fragmentation sign, dynamic bronchial signs, pleural effusion and so on [9].

With the development of ultrasound technology, pulmonary ultrasound is gradually found to be of great value in diagnosing acute respiratory distress syndrome, pulmonary edema, pneumonia, pneumothorax, pulmonary embolism and so on [6,10,11]. It can be used to monitor the changes in lung ventilation, to guide clinical fluid management and evaluate prognosis, especially in patients with severe diseases. Since chest X-rays and CT examinations are unsuitable for rapid diagnosis of critical diseases due to the shortages of inconvenient carrying, radiation exposition, poor reproducibility, position limitations, and high costs, and compared with chest CT, bedside lung ultrasound has advantages of non-invasive, dynamic and repeatable observation of patients with lung disease.

The Advantage of Drainage Position Ventilation

At present, prone position mechanical ventilation is widely used in patients infected with new coronavirus, which may be helpful to the drainage of pulmonary inflammation and the reduction of pulmonary shunt volume [2]. So far, no effective antiviral drugs have been found in defeating new coronavirus, so drainage becomes an important treatment for pulmonary inflammatory lesions. Because of inflammatory lesions in different parts of the lung, prone position ventilation is not suitable for all patients, and it may be more beneficial to adopt drainage position mechanical ventilation combined with tracheal suction with the infected side of lung lesions upper side. For example, the lateral and head-down position mechanical ventilation with the inflammatory lung upper side according to the characteristics of pulmonary imaging of some patients infected with new coronavirus. The lateral prone position can be tried to improve the inflammatory side lung ventilation, reduce pulmonary shunt, increase blood reflux and improve hemodynamics. However, it is important to avoid excessive head down, which increases abdominal pressure on the chest cavity.

In summary, based on the autopsy, clinical manifestations, lung pathological characteristics and present treatment of the patients infected with the new coronavirus, this article describes some possible improvement measures for the mechanical ventilation strategy. We believe that postural drainage ventilation, real-time bedside pulmonary ultrasound and chest electrical impedance monitoring will improve the clinical treatment of critical patients based on the previous guidelines for ARDS treatment. These methods provide some new ideas for clinical treatment and need to be used and verified in future clinical work.

References

  1. Guan WJ, Ni ZY, Hu Y, Liang WH, Ou CQ, et al. (2020) Clinical characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 in China. N Engl J Med.
  2. Lingzhong Meng, Haibo Qiu, Li Wan, Yuhang Ai, Zhanggang Xue, et al. (2020) Intubation and Ventilation amid the COVID-19 Outbreak: Wuhan’s Experience. Anesthesiology 132: 1317-1332. [crossref]
  3. Huang C, Wang Y, Li X, Ren L, Zhao J, et al. (2020) Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China. Lancet 395: 497-506.
  4. Qin Liu, Rongshuai wang, Guoqiang Qu, Yunyun wang, Pan Liu, et al. (2020) Gross Observation Report on the Autopsy of a nCov-2019 Pneumonia Death. Journal of Forensic Medicine (Chinese) 36: 21-23. [crossref]
  5. Hsu CF, Cheng JS, Lin WC, Cheng KS, Lin SH, et al. (2016) Electrical impedance tomography monitoring in acute respiratory distress syndrome patients with mechanical ventilation during prolonged positive end-expiratory pressure adjustments [J]. J Formos Med Assoc 115: 195-202. [crossref]
  6. Staub LJ, Mazzali Biscaro RR, Kaszubowski E, Maurici R (2019) Lung ultrasound for the emergency diagnosis of pneumonia, acute heart failure, and exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease / asthma in adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis. J Emerg Med 56: 53-69. [crossref]
  7. Heines SJH, Strauch U, Van de Poll MCG, Paul MHJR, Dennis CJJB (2018) Clinical implementation of electric impedance tomography in the treatment of ARDS: a single centre experience [J]. J Clin Monit Comput. [crossref]
  8. Rouby JJ, Arbelot C, Gao YZ, Zhang M, Lv J, et al. (2018) APECHO Study Group. Training for lung ultrasound score measurement in critically ill patients. Am J Respir Crit Care Med 198: 398-401. [crossref]
  9. Lichtenstein DA (2015) BLUE-protocol and FALLS-protocol: two applications of lung ultrasound in the critically ill. Chest 147: 1659-1670.
  10. Chavez MA, Shams N, Ellington LE, Naithani N, Gilman RH, et al. (2014) Lung ultrasound for the diagnosis of pneumonia in adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Respir Res 15: 50. [crossref]
  11. Long L, Zhao HT, Zhang ZY, Wang GY, Zhao HL (2017) Lung ultrasound for the diagnosis of pneumonia in adults: a meta-analysis. Medicine (Baltimore) 96: e5713. [crossref]

Self-Recovery of Pancreatic Beta Cell’s Insulin Secretion Based on 10+ Years Annualized Data of Food, Exercise, Weight, and Glucose Using GHMethod: Math-Physical Medicine (No. 339)

Abstract

The author was inspired from reading two recently published medical papers regarding pancreatic beta cells insulin secretion or diabetes reversal via weight reduction. The weight reduction is directly related to the patient’s lifestyle improvement through diet and exercise. He has published six medical papers on beta cells based on different stages in observations of his continuous glucose improvements; therefore, in this article, he will investigate food ingredients, meal portions, weight, and glucose improvement based on his 10+ years of collected big data.

Here is the summary of his findings:

  1. His successful weight reduction, from 220 lbs. in 2010 to 171 lbs. in 2020, comes from his food portion reduction and exercise increase.
  2. His lower carbs/sugar intake amount, from 40 grams in 2010 to 12 grams in 2020, is resulted from his learned food nutrition knowledge and meal portion reduction, from 150% in 2010 to 67% in 2020.
  3. His weight reduction contributes to his FPG reduction, from 220 mg/dL in 2010 to 104 mg/dL in 2020. His carbs/sugar control and increased walking steps, from 2,000 steps in 2010 to ~16,000 steps in 202, have contributed to his PPG reduction, from 300 mg/dL in 2010 to 109 mg/dL in 2020. When both FPG and PPG are reduced, his daily glucose is decreased as well, from 280 mg/dL in 2010 to 108 mg/dL in 2020.
  4. His damaged beta cell’s insulin production and functionality, most likely, have been repaired about 16% for the past 6 years or 27% in the past 10 years at a self-repair rate of 2.7% per year.

The conclusion from this paper is a 2.7% annual beta cells self-repair rate which is similar to his previously published papers regarding his range of pancreatic beta cells self-recovery of insulin secretion with an annual rate between 2.3% to 3.2%.

To date, the author has written seven papers discussing his pancreatic beta cell’s self-recovery of insulin secretion. In his first six papers [1-7], he used several different “cutting angles” or “analysis approaches” to delve deeper into this complex biomedical subject and achieved consistent results within the range of 2.3% to 3.2% of annual self-recovery rate.

He used a quantitative approach with precision to discover and reconfirm his pancreatic beta cell’s health state by linking it backwards step-by-step with his collected data of glucose, weight, diet, and exercise. He has produced another dataset for a self-repair rate of 2.7% which is located right in the middle between 2.3% and 3.2% from his previous findings.

In his opinion, type 2 diabetes (T2D) is no longer a non-reversible or non-curable disease. Diabetes is not only “controllable” but it is also “self-repairable”, even though at a rather slow rate. He would like to share his research findings and his persistent efforts from the past decade with his medical research colleagues and to provide encouragement to motivate other T2D patients like himself to reverse their diabetes conditions.

Introduction

The author was inspired from reading two recently published medical papers regarding pancreatic beta cells insulin secretion or diabetes reversal via weight reduction. The weight reduction is directly related to the patient’s lifestyle improvement through diet and exercise. He has published six medical papers on beta cells based on different stages in observations of his continuous glucose improvements; therefore, in this article, he will investigate food ingredients, meal portions, weight, and glucose improvement based on his 10+ years of collected big data.

Methods

Background

To learn more about his developed GH-Method: math-physical medicine (MPM) research methodology, readers can review his article, Biomedical research methodology based on GH-Method: math-physical medicine (No. 54 and No. 310), in Reference [1] to understand his MPM analysis method.

Diabetes History

In 1995, the author was diagnosed with severe type 2 diabetes (T2D). His daily average glucose reached 280 mg/dL with a peak glucose at 398 mg/dL and his HbA1C was at 10% in 2010. Since 2005, he has suffered many kinds of diabetes complications, including five cardiac episodes (without having a stroke), foot ulcer, renal complications, bladder infection, diabetic retinopathy, and hypothyroidism.

As of 9/30/2020, his daily average glucose is approximately 106 mg/dL and HbA1C at 6.1%. It should be mentioned that he started to reduce the dosage of his three different diabetes medications (maximum dosages) in early 2013 and finally stop taking them on 12/8/2015. In other words, his glucose record since 2016 to the present is totally “medication-free”.

Beginning on 1/1/2012, he started to collect his weight value in the early morning and his glucose values four times a day: FPG x1 in the early morning and PPG x3 at two hours after the first bite of each meal. Since 1/1/2014, he also started to collect his carbs/sugar amount in grams and post-meal walking steps. Prior to these two dates, especially during the period of 2010 to 2012, the manually collected biomarkers and lifestyle details were scattered and unorganized. Therefore, those annualized data from 2010 to 2012 or 2014 were guesstimated values with his best effort. It should be further mentioned that on 1/1/2013, he began to reduce his dosages of three diabetes educations step by step. By 1/1/2015, he was only taking 500 mg of Metformin for controlling his diabetes conditions. Finally, he completely ceased taking Metformin on 12/8/2015; therefore, since 1/1/2016, his body has been completely free of any diabetes medications.

Other Research Results

Recently, a Danish medical research team has published an article on JAMA which emphasizes a strengthen lifestyle program can reverse” T2D. This program includes a weekly exercise (5-6 times and 30-60 minutes each time), daily walking more than 10,000 steps using smart phone to keep a record, personalized diet and nutritional guidance by healthcare professionals, etc. The observed results from this Danish report are patientsoverall HbA1C reduction of 0.31%, and their diabetes medication dosage reduction from 73% to 26%.

DiRECT research report from UK also indicated that an aggressive weight reduction program can induce improvement on diabetes conditions. This UK program includes low-calories diet for 3-5 months with 825-853 K-calories per day, plus daily walking of 15,000 steps per day. The observed results from this UK report are patientsoverall HbA1C reduction of 0.9%, weight reduction of 10 kg (or 22 lbs.), and reduced diabetes medication dosage as well.

The Author’s Approach

Inspired by the results from the two European studies and based on his own collected big data over the past 10+ years, from 2010 to 2020, he decided to conduct a similar research on his own. He has separated his 10+ years data into two periods. The first period of 5 years, from 2010 to 2014, with partially collected and partially guesstimated data under different degrees of medication influence, and the second period of 6 years, from 2015 to 2020, with a complete set of collected raw data stored in software and severs without any medication influence.

His trend of thoughts include a sequence from cause to consequence as listed below from top to bottom:

  • Food and meal’s portion %
  • K-calories per day
  • Weight (lbs.)
  • FPG (mg/dL)
  • Carbs/sugar intake (grams)
  • Walking
  • PPG (mg/dL)
  • Daily glucose (mg/dL)

He has further conducted nine calculations of correlation coefficient based on the above parameters to examine the degree of connections between any 2 elements of these total 8 parameters. It should be mentioned that the correlation coefficients can only be done between two data sets, or two curves.

More importantly, in addition to examining the raw data, he also placing an emphasis on the annual change rate percentage, its trend, and their comparisons of these 8 parameters.

Results

Figure 1 shows his background data table which includes his calculated annual averages of the 8 parameters plus proteins, fat, and daily K-calories, based on his daily data collected during 2010 to 2020.

fig 1

Figure 1: Background data table.

Figure 2 depicts the annual change rate percentage of his food (meal portion %, K-calories, and carbs/sugar) and his weight. In this figure, meal portion and weight have similar change rates which means the less he eats, the lighter his weight. Also, carbs/sugar amount and K-calories have similar change rates which means the less his K-calories, the less his carbs/sugar intake amount.

fig 2

Figure 2: Annual change rates of Weight and Food (meal portion, K-calories, and carbs/sugar).

Figure 3 illustrates the similar trend of annual data of his weight and three food components (meal portion, K-calories, and carbs/sugar amount).

fig 3

Figure 3: Annual change rates of Weight and Food (meal portion, K-calories, and carbs/sugar).

Exercise is a missing component from this figure which is also essential on weight reduction. The more he eats, the higher intake amounts of his K-calories and his carbs/sugar as well. During the past decade on his effort for weight reduction, he has focused on reducing both of his meal portion percentage and carb/sugar intake amount. As a result, he was able to reduce his weight from 220 lbs (100 kg) and his average glucose from 280 mg/dL in 2010 to 171 lbs. (78 kg) and 106 mg/dL in 2020 (without any medication).

Figure 4 reflects the annual change rate percentage of his daily glucose, weight and carbs/sugar amount. In this figure, the change rates of his glucose and weight are remarkably similar, almost a mirror image, which indicates the lower his weight, the lower his glucose. This finding matches the two European studies and the common knowledge possessed by healthcare professionals. The reason for the obviously mismatched change rates between carbs/sugar and glucose or weight is due to the missing component of exercise which is equally important on glucose reduction.

fig 4

Figure 4: Annual change rates of Weight, Glucose, and Carbs/sugar.

Figure 5 focuses exclusively on the relationships among data of glucose, carbs/sugar, and exercise. The positive correlation coefficient between glucose and carbs/sugar is expressed by these two similar moving trends. On the other hand, the negative correlation coefficient between glucose and exercise (walking) is expressed by these two opposite moving trends.

fig 5

Figure 5: Annual data of Weight, Glucose, and Carbs/sugar.

Figures 6-8 collectively collective together to show the 9 sets of calculated correlation coefficients among those 8 listed elements in above section of Methods. A better illustration of these three figures can be found in a table, where all of the calculated correlations are above 90%, which means they are highly connected to each other (Figure 9). Even the correlation of -89% between glucose and walking exercise is also extremely high in a negative manner.

fig 6

Figure 6: Correlation coefficients among Weight, K-calories, meal portion.

fig 7

Figure 7: Correlation coefficients among Weight, Glucose, Carbs/sugar.

fig 8

Figure 8: Correlation coefficients among PPG, Carb/sugar, Walking, FPG, Weight.

fig 9

Figure 9: A combined data table of 9 correlation coefficients among 8 elements.

Figure 10 reveals the detailed annual change rates of 8 elements for a 10+ year period from 2010 to 2020. It should be pointed out that his average change rates within 6 years from 2015 through 2020 are 2.7% per year for both FPG and PPG, and 3.4% for daily glucose. This conclusion is similar to his six previously published papers regarding his pancreatic beta cell’s self-recovery rate of insulin secretion. Most likely, his beta cells insulin production and functionality have been repaired about 16% during the past 6 years or 27% during the past 10 years at a self-repair rate of 2.7% per year.

fig 10

Figure 10: A combined data table of annual change rates of 7 elements, especially glucose change rates of 2.7%.

Here is the summary of his findings:

  1. His successful weight reduction, from 220 lbs. in 2010 to 171 lbs. in 2020, comes from his food portion reduction and exercise increase.
  2. His lower carbs/sugar intake amount, from 40 grams in 2010 to 12 grams in 2020, is resulted from his learned food nutrition knowledge and meal portion reduction, from 150% in 2010 to 67% in 2020.
  3. His weight reduction contributes to his FPG reduction, from 220 mg/dL in 2010 to 104 mg/dL in 2020. His carbs/sugar control and increased walking steps, from 2,000 steps in 2010 to ~16,000 steps in 202, have contributed to his PPG reduction, from 300 mg/dL in 2010 to 109 mg/dL in 2020. When both FPG and PPG are reduced, his daily glucose is decreased as well, from 280 mg/dL in 2010 to 108 mg/dL in 2020.
  4. His damaged beta cell’s insulin production and functionality, most likely, have been repaired about 16% for the past 6 years or 27% in the past 10 years at a self-repair rate of 2.7% per year.

Summary

To date, the author has written seven papers discussing his pancreatic beta cell’s self-recovery of insulin secretion. In his first six papers [2-7], he used several different “cutting angles” or “analysis approaches” to delve deeper into this complex biomedical subject and achieved consistent results within the range of 2.3% to 3.2% of annual self-recovery rate.

He used a quantitative approach with precision to discover and reconfirm his pancreatic beta cell’s health state by linking it backwards step-by-step with his collected data of glucose, weight, diet, and exercise. He has produced another dataset for a self-repair rate of 2.7% which is located right in the middle between 2.3% and 3.2% from his previous findings.

In his opinion, type 2 diabetes (T2D) is no longer a non-reversible or non-curable disease. Diabetes is not only “controllable” but it is also “self-repairable”, even though at a rather slow rate. He would like to share his research findings and his persistent efforts from the past decade with his medical research colleagues and to provide encouragement to motivate other T2D patients like himself to reverse their diabetes conditions.

References

  1. Hsu, Gerald C. eclaireMD Foundation, USA. “GH-Method: Methodology of math-physical medicine, No. 54 and No. 310.”
  2. Hsu, Gerald C. eclaireMD Foundation, USA. “Changes in relative health state of pancreas beta cells over eleven years using GH-Method: math-physical medicine (No. 112).”
  3. Hsu, Gerald C. eclaireMD Foundation, USA. “Probable partial recovery of pancreatic beta cells insulin regeneration using annualized fasting plasma glucose via GH-Method: math-physical medicine (No. 133).”
  4. Hsu, Gerald C. eclaireMD Foundation, USA. “Probable partial self-recovery of pancreatic beta cells using calculations of annualized fasting plasma glucose using GH-Method: math-physical medicine (No. 138).”
  5. Hsu, Gerald C. eclaireMD Foundation, USA. “Guesstimate probable partial self-recovery of pancreatic beta cells using calculations of annualized glucose data using GH-Method: math-physical medicine (No. 139).”
  6. Hsu, Gerald C. eclaireMD Foundation, USA. “Relationship between metabolism and risk of cardiovascular disease and stroke, risk of chronic kidney disease, and probability of pancreatic beta cells self-recovery using GH-Method: Math-Physical Medicine (No. 259).”
  7. Hsu, Gerald C. eclaireMD Foundation, USA. “Self-recovery of pancreatic beta cell’s insulin secretion based on annualized fasting plasma glucose, baseline postprandial plasma glucose, and baseline daily glucose data using GH-Method: math-physical medicine (No. 297).”

A Safety Signal’s Significance with the COVID-19 Coronavirus

Introduction

The global pandemic involving COVID-19 (coronavirus) has produced unprecedented challenges for the medical, healthcare providers and our world community. The World Health Organization (WHO 2020) initially declared COVID-19 a pandemic, pointing to the over numerous cases of the coronavirus illness in over a hundred countries and territories around the world and the sustained risk of further global spread [1,2]. The term pandemic is most often applied to new influenza strains, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) use it to refer to strains of virus that are able to infect people easily and spread from person to person in an efficient and sustained manner. Such a declaration refers to the spread of a disease, rather than the severity of the illness it causes. A pandemic declaration can result in increased levels of stress, anxiety, panic and levels of functional depression for some individuals [3]. Recognized is the realization that these unusual circumstances create significant uncertainty and unease in the professional and personal lives of health care professionals and their patients.

Definition of a Safety Signal

“Safety signals” are learned cues that predict the nonoccurrence of an aversive event. As such, safety signals are potent inhibitors of fear and stress responses. Investigations of safety signal learning have increased over the last few years due in part to the finding that traumatized persons are unable to use safety cues to inhibit fear, making it a clinically relevant phenotype.

The coronavirus has traumatized some which has been recognized as a state of heightened fear or anxiety in environments globally. This symptom has been conceptualized as a generalization of the fear conditioned during the traumatic experience that becomes resistant to extinction. As opposed to danger learning where a cue is paired with aversive stimulation, safety learning involves associating distinct environmental stimuli also known as safety signals that can be used an applied when aversive events occur as in a global pandemic.

During periods of high stress such as during this Covid-19 pandemic, fear often permeates the lives of many because if the unknown nature of this illness. This occurs because of the absence of a learned safety signal. Such safety signals can inhibit fear responses to cues in the environment. As such, safety signals are only learned when the subject expects danger but it does not necessarily occur. More fundamental to the clinical importance of a safety signal is the distinction between safe and dangerous circumstances. Thus, identifying the mechanisms of safety learning represents a significant goal for basic neuroscience that should inform future prevention and treatment of trauma and other anxiety disorders.

With COVID-19 global pandemic, the World Health Organization (2020) continues to ask countries to “take urgent and aggressive action.” World leaders continue holding international teleconferences with health officials to address the most effective way to protect the public and develop public health policy for the coronavirus that has caused multiple illnesses and deaths worldwide.

Transitioning the Pandemic

The urgency has created stressful life experiences for all ages that pose the potential for illness resulting for some in disabling fear, a hallmark of anxiety and stress-related disorders [4]. Researchers at Yale University and Weill Cornell Medicine report on a novel way that could help combat such anxiety experienced at times like these. When life events as the spread of the Corvid 19 triggers excessive fear and the absence of a safety signal. In humans, a symbol or a sound that is never associated with adverse events can relieve anxiety through an entirely different brain network than that activated by fear and worry. Each individual must find their own “safety signal” whether that is a mantra, song, a person, or even an item like a stuffed animal that represents the presence of safety and security.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the World Health Organization (WHO), and other reputable agencies have advocated on how to address the coronavirus by washing hands frequently, avoid sharing personal items, and maintaining social distance from others beyond immediate family.

While it’s still unclear exactly how much of the current coronavirus outbreak has been fueled by asymptomatic, mildly symptomatic, or pre-symptomatic individuals, the risk of contagion exists. A yet to be published article in the CDC journal “Emerging Infectious Disease” (CDC 2020) reports that the time between cases in a chain of transmission is less than a week, with more than 10% of patients being infected by someone who has the virus but does not yet have symptoms according to Dr. Luren Meyers, a professor of integrative biology at UT Austin, who was part of a team of scientists from the United States, France, China and Hong Kong examining this viral threat.

Earlier this year, researchers in China published a research letter in the Journal of the American Medical Association, outlining a case of an asymptomatic woman in Wuhan, China who reportedly spread the virus to five family members while traveling to Anyang, China-all of whom developed COVID-19 pneumonia. The sequence of events suggests that the coronavirus may have been transmitted by the asymptomatic carrier,” [5].

Prevention Interventions

Coordinated regional efforts are underway under the direction of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that provides guidelines aimed at prevention intervention. Each individual should make the effort to create one’s own “safety signal” by following the recommendations of the CDC (2020). Know how it spreads and that there is currently no vaccine to prevent coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Critical for prevention is avoided exposing the virus. The virus is thought to spread mainly from person-to-person. Between people who are in close contact with one another. Through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes. These droplets can land in the mouths or noses of people who are nearby or possibly be inhaled into the lungs.

Disinfecting by washing hands often with soap and water for at least twenty seconds especially after you have been in a public place or after blowing your nose, coughing, or sneezing. If soap and water are not readily available, use a hand sanitizer that contains at least 60% alcohol. Cover all surfaces of your hands and rub them together until they feel dry. Avoid touching the eyes, nose, and mouth with unwashed hands Put distance between yourself and other people if COVID-19 is spreading in your community. This is especially important for people who are at higher risk of getting immune compromised illness.

Health care calls for “sheltering in place” are effort to provide primary prevention it’s important to stay home to slow the spread of COVID-19, and if you must go out, practice personal quarantine. While we stay home, don’t let fear and anxiety about the COVID-19 pandemic become overwhelming. Managing mental health issues can be aided by taking breaks from watching, reading, or listening to news stories and social media. It remains important to take the time to connect with others. Networking with friends and loved ones over the phone or via video chat about the thoughts and feelings experienced during this pandemic is very important to maintain mental health daring three times. Employ the use mindful meditation, eating healthy meals, exercising regularly, and getting plenty of sleep.

Take steps to protect yourself and others. Stay sheltered in place especially when you’re sick. Shelter in place means to seek safety within the building one already occupies, rather than to evacuate the area or seek a community emergency shelter. The American Red Cross says the warning is issued when “chemical, biological, or radiological contaminants which would include exposure to the coronavirus.

Efforts must be made to cover one’s mouth and nose with a tissue when you cough or sneeze or use the inside of your elbow. Throw used tissues in the trash. Immediately wash your hands with soap and water for at least 20 seconds. If soap and water are not readily available, clean your hands with a hand sanitizer that contains at least 60% alcohol.

It is important to wear a facemask for your own health as well as the health of others. Everyone should wear a facemask when they are around other people (e.g., sharing a room or vehicle) and before entering a healthcare provider’s office. If someone is not able to wear a facemask due to breathing difficulties, then these individuals should cover all coughs and sneezes, and people who are caring for theme should wear a facemask when they enter ones room. Wear a facemask when caring for someone who is showing any signs or symptoms of respiratory infection and fever.

When considering the anxiety and apprehension individuals may experience with the vulnerabilities of the present pandemic and future epidemics of this proportion, patient medical education can provide a buffer against the Prevention interventions that include cleaning and disinfecting objects and surfaces that are touched regularly. This includes tables, doorknobs, light switches, countertops, handles, desks, phones, keyboards, toilets, faucets, and sinks. If surfaces are dirty, clean them: Use detergent or soap and water prior to disinfection. With first signs of symptoms, take advantage of Virtual Care in an effort to minimize unnecessary visits to an emergency room or health care provider’s office, which can also decrease the spread of illness and/or infection of many conditions, including COVID-19. Finally, each individual is encouraged to establish one’s own “safety signal” by adhering to the multiple precautions that include the guidelines developed and promoted by the World Health organization and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC 2020).

References

  1. Centers for Disease Control (2020) Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19).
  2. World Health Organization (2020) Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): Situation Report-38.
  3. Miller TW (2015) Problem Epidemics in Recent Times. Health & Wellness. Lexington Kentucky: Rock point Publisher Incorporated.
  4. Miller TW (2010) Handbook of Stressful Transitions across the Life Span. New York: Springer Publishers Incorporated.
  5. Huang C, Wang Y, Li X, et al. (2020) Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China. Lancet 395: 497-506.

Application of Drainage Position Ventilation and Real- Time Bedside Monitoring in Mechanical Ventilation of Patients Infected with nCov-19

Abstract

At present, the new coronavirus has spread to more than 200 countries and regions around the world. Up to now, no specific antiviral drugs are proved effective in defeating the new coronavirus, some measures, such as postural drainage ventilation, real-time bedside pulmonary ultrasound and chest electrical impedance monitoring may provide some new ideas for mechanical ventilation patients infected with new coronavirus.

Keywords

New coronavirus, ARDS, Mechanical ventilation, Bioelectrical impedance tomography, Pulmonary ultrasound

Etiology and Pathogenesis

The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) belongs to the beta genus of coronavirus, the S protein of the new coronavirus binds to the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor of human alveolar type II epithelial cells, and then enters into the cell to replicate and spread through respiratory droplets and contact [1].

Clinical Manifestation

Fever, dry cough and fatigue are the main symptoms of the people infected with novel coronavirus. Critically ill patients usually have dyspnea and (or) hypoxemia one week after the onset of the disease. Some patients can rapidly progress to acute respiratory distress syndrome, septic shock, uncorrectable metabolic acidosis, coagulation dysfunction and multiple organ failure [1].

Chest Imaging

Chest radiographs showed multiple small patch shadows and interstitial changes in the lungs, especially in the lateral pulmonary zone in the early stage of the patients infected with new coronavirus. Then it developed into multiple ground glass shadows and infiltration shadows in both lungs, and in severe cases, lung consolidation could occur [1-3].

Pulmonary Pathophysiology

Lung pathology showed focal hemorrhage and necrosis, marked proliferation of the type II alveolar epithelial cells in the lung tissue. Serous, fibrin exudates, and hyaline membrane formation were seen in the alveolar cavity; it could also be observed that the alveolar septal vascular congestion and edema, and some alveolar exudates organization and pulmonary interstitial fibrosis. Part of the bronchial mucosa epithelium was shed; mucus and mucus emboli could be seen in the bronchial lumen. A small number of alveoli were over-inflated, the alveolar septum was broken or the cysts were formed [4].

Thus, critically ill patients infected with new coronavirus may present abnormal pathophysiological changes such as obstructive ventilation disorder, lung gas exchange disorder, imbalanced ventilation blood flow ratio, and increased shunt.

Antiviral Therapy

During the emergency clinical trial of antiviral drugs, a number of randomized, double-blind, antiviral-placebo controlled studies have been carried out, but no antiviral drugs proved effective in treating the new coronavirus infection.

Mechanical Ventilation

Early and appropriate invasive mechanical ventilation is an important treatment for critically ill patients. In general, when PaO2/FiO2 is less than 150 mmHg, the effect of high flow oxygen therapy or noninvasive ventilation is not good, endotracheal intubation should be considered in time for invasive mechanical ventilation in severe and critical ill cases [2]. The strategies of lung protective mechanical ventilation and lung recruitment are implemented. If there is no contraindication, it is suggested to implement prone position ventilation at the same time. Prone position ventilation can improve oxygenation in patients with ARDS by increasing functional residual volume, improving ventilation/blood flow ratio (V/Q), reducing shunt (Qs/Qt), improving diaphragmatic movement and promoting secretion excretion. In the airway management, posture drainage and sputum suction by bronchoscope should be adopted to promote the sputum drainage and lung rehabilitation [2].

Lung Protective Mechanical Ventilation Strategy

The individualized strategy of mechanical ventilation is to adopt the most suitable methods or parameters in ventilation mode, lung recruitment, tidal volume, PEEP and mechanical ventilation posture for patients according to their different pathophysiological conditions, so as to achieve the best treatment effect. At present, low tidal volume, high PEEP, lung recruitment and prone position ventilation are widely used in patients infected with new coronavirus [2]. The characteristics of severe new coronavirus cases, such as inflammatory serous and fibrin exudate, exudate organization, pulmonary fibrosis, alveolar septum destruction, atelectasis and pulmonary bullae, coexist in the patients’ lung [4]. Large tidal volume is not suitable for patients infected with new coronavirus due to the potential mechanical ventilation lung injury [2]. The selection of PEEP should be guided by the best pulmonary mechanics, the reduction of pulmonary shunt, the improvement of oxygenation and the function of stable circulation, while the effect of pulmonary recruitment should be examined by CT, MRI, bioelectrical impedance tomography (EIT) and ultrasound imaging. In the process of lung recruitment, there is the possibility of lung over inflation and the original pulmonary injury aggravation, and the effect on the hemodynamics should be concerned at the same time. The optimal method, opportunity and parameters of lung recruitment have not been determined, but it is necessary to judge the potential of pulmonary reinflation under real-time bedside EIT and ultrasound pulmonary monitoring.

The Advantage of Real Time Bedside Monitoring of EIT and Ultrasound

The goal-oriented mechanical ventilation is to adjust the mechanical ventilation strategy in time with the aim of imaging, respiratory and oxygen dynamics monitoring, blood gas examination, the function of circulatory system and the condition of other organs [2]. Blood oxygen saturation, blood gas, hemodynamics and respiratory mechanics are still routine and convenient monitoring methods of mechanical ventilation. Traditional lung images, such as X-ray, CT, MRI, certainly have the characteristics of clear images and easy analysis and diagnosis, but they are complicated to operate under the special circumstances of isolation and transportation of patients infected with new coronavirus. The chest electrical impedance tomography cannot provide clear image, but it is convenient to operate and can be continuously imaged [5]. Ultrasound lung images also have unique advantages in the diagnosis of pneumonia and the effect of ventilation [6]. These two methods can be real-time bedside monitoring, which are simple and practical to guide lung recruitment, to diagnose pneumonia, and to evaluate the mechanical ventilation effectiveness. In addition, while monitoring respiratory mechanics and oxygenation parameters during mechanical ventilation, we should pay close attention to the corresponding changes in the circulatory system and make timely adjustments.

Electrical Impedance Tomography

Electrical Impedance Tomography (EIT) is to use the impedance changes of living organisms or biological tissues, biological organs, and biological cells under the action of a safe current below the excitability threshold to obtain the organism internal resistance rate of distribution and changing images through image reconstruction [5,7]. The resistivity of different tissues or the same tissue under different physiological and pathological conditions is different. The periodic changes of air and blood flow in the lungs together determine the changes in the electrical impedance of the chest. The advantage of EIT lies in the use of the rich physiological and pathological information carried by bio-impedance to obtain damage-free functional imaging and medical image monitoring. Chest X-rays and CT are widely used in the diagnosis of lung infections. But they cannot monitor lung lesions in real time, cannot measure lung ventilation status, and most importantly cannot be used in patients with severe pneumonia and respiratory failure who cannot easily access these examination, so their application are limited. Lung EIT, as a brand new medical imaging technology, which is different from traditional imaging technology and conventional lung function monitoring, has outstanding features such as injury-free, portable, low-cost, functional imaging, and image monitoring. EIT can real-time dynamic monitor the pulmonary ventilation and blood flow distribution, evaluate the effectiveness of clinical treatment methods such as mechanical ventilation by measuring electrical resistance under different ventilation conditions [5,7].

At present, the commonly used methods to monitor the effectiveness of lung recruitment strategy and the suitability of PEEP include arterial blood gas analysis, peripheral oxygen saturation, pulmonary and chest maximum compliance, static pressure volume curve and so on, but these methods cannot meet the requirements of dynamic monitoring of regional lung perfusion. A number of studies have showed that in mechanical ventilation patients with ARDS, EIT has been used to accurately measure the whole lung and regional lung ventilation distribution, to show the influence of PEEP changes on alveolar expansion and collapse by gradually increasing and decreasing PEEP level, and in the end to obtain the optimal value of PEEP, which improves the ratio of ventilation and blood flow (V/Q), and plays an important role in individulized lung protective ventilation strategy [5,7].

Pulmonary Ultrasound

Bedside lung ultrasound can be used for the diagnosis and differential diagnosis of various lung diseases by using a low-frequency convex probe of 3 to 5 MHz and a high-frequency linear probe of 8 to 12 MHz [8]. Normal lung ultrasound images include bat sign, lung sliding sign, and A-line. Pathological images mainly include abnormal pleural lines, pulmonary consolidation, interstitial syndrome, fragmentation sign, dynamic bronchial signs, pleural effusion and so on [9].

With the development of ultrasound technology, pulmonary ultrasound is gradually found to be of great value in diagnosing acute respiratory distress syndrome, pulmonary edema, pneumonia, pneumothorax, pulmonary embolism and so on [6,10,11]. It can be used to monitor the changes in lung ventilation, to guide clinical fluid management and evaluate prognosis, especially in patients with severe diseases. Since chest X-rays and CT examinations are unsuitable for rapid diagnosis of critical diseases due to the shortages of inconvenient carrying, radiation exposition, poor reproducibility, position limitations, and high costs, and compared with chest CT, bedside lung ultrasound has advantages of non-invasive, dynamic and repeatable observation of patients with lung disease.

The Advantage of Drainage Position Ventilation

At present, prone position mechanical ventilation is widely used in patients infected with new coronavirus, which may be helpful to the drainage of pulmonary inflammation and the reduction of pulmonary shunt volume [2]. So far, no effective antiviral drugs have been found in defeating new coronavirus, so drainage becomes an important treatment for pulmonary inflammatory lesions. Because of inflammatory lesions in different parts of the lung, prone position ventilation is not suitable for all patients, and it may be more beneficial to adopt drainage position mechanical ventilation combined with tracheal suction with the infected side of lung lesions upper side. For example, the lateral and head-down position mechanical ventilation with the inflammatory lung upper side according to the characteristics of pulmonary imaging of some patients infected with new coronavirus. The lateral prone position can be tried to improve the inflammatory side lung ventilation, reduce pulmonary shunt, increase blood reflux and improve hemodynamics. However, it is important to avoid excessive head down, which increases abdominal pressure on the chest cavity.

In summary, based on the autopsy, clinical manifestations, lung pathological characteristics and present treatment of the patients infected with the new coronavirus, this article describes some possible improvement measures for the mechanical ventilation strategy. We believe that postural drainage ventilation, real-time bedside pulmonary ultrasound and chest electrical impedance monitoring will improve the clinical treatment of critical patients based on the previous guidelines for ARDS treatment. These methods provide some new ideas for clinical treatment and need to be used and verified in future clinical work.

References

  1. Guan WJ, Ni ZY, Hu Y, Liang WH, Ou CQ, et al. (2020) Clinical characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 in China. N Engl J Med.
  2. Lingzhong Meng, Haibo Qiu, Li Wan, Yuhang Ai, Zhanggang Xue, et al. (2020) Intubation and Ventilation amid the COVID-19 Outbreak: Wuhan’s Experience. Anesthesiology 132: 1317-1332. [crossref]
  3. Huang C, Wang Y, Li X, Ren L, Zhao J, et al. (2020) Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China. Lancet 395: 497-506.
  4. Qin Liu, Rongshuai wang, Guoqiang Qu, Yunyun wang, Pan Liu, et al. (2020) Gross Observation Report on the Autopsy of a nCov-2019 Pneumonia Death. Journal of Forensic Medicine (Chinese) 36: 21-23. [crossref]
  5. Hsu CF, Cheng JS, Lin WC, Cheng KS, Lin SH, et al. (2016) Electrical impedance tomography monitoring in acute respiratory distress syndrome patients with mechanical ventilation during prolonged positive end-expiratory pressure adjustments [J]. J Formos Med Assoc 115: 195-202. [crossref]
  6. Staub LJ, Mazzali Biscaro RR, Kaszubowski E, Maurici R (2019) Lung ultrasound for the emergency diagnosis of pneumonia, acute heart failure, and exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease / asthma in adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis. J Emerg Med 56: 53-69. [crossref]
  7. Heines SJH, Strauch U, Van de Poll MCG, Paul MHJR, Dennis CJJB (2018) Clinical implementation of electric impedance tomography in the treatment of ARDS: a single centre experience [J]. J Clin Monit Comput. [crossref]
  8. Rouby JJ, Arbelot C, Gao YZ, Zhang M, Lv J, et al. (2018) APECHO Study Group. Training for lung ultrasound score measurement in critically ill patients. Am J Respir Crit Care Med 198: 398-401. [crossref]
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Thinking Climate – A Mind Genomics Cartography

Abstract

The paper deals with the inner mind of the respondent about climate change, using Mind Genomics. Respondents evaluated different combinations of messages about problems and solutions touching on current and future climate change. Respondents rated each combination on a two-dimensional scale regarding believability and workability. The ratings were deconstructed into the linkage between each message and believability vs. workability, respectively. Two mind-sets emerged,Alarmists who focus on the problems that are obvious to climate change, and Investors who focus on a limited number of feasible solutions.These two mind-sets distribute across the population, but can be uncovered through a PVI, personal mind-set identifier.

Introduction

Importance of the Weather and Climate

As of this writing, the concerns keep mounting about climate change, as can be seen in published material, whether the news or academic papers, respectively.As of this writing, the concerns keep mounting about climate change, as can be seen in published material, whether the news or academic papers, respectively.A search during mid-December 2020 reveal 416 million hits for ‘global warming,’ 350 million hits for ‘global cooling’ 886 million his for ‘weather storms’ and 608 million hits for ‘global weather change.’ The academic literature shows the parallel level of interest in weather and its changes. A retrospective of issues about climate change shows the increasing number of ‘hit’ over the past 20 years, as Table 1 shows. These hits suggest that issues regarding climate change are high on the list of people’s concerns.

Table 1a: Number of ‘hits’ on Google Scholar for different aspects of climate change.

Year

Global Warming Global Cooling Weather Storms

Global Weather Change

2000

14,900 22,300 8,370

34,300

2002

30,900 111,900 10,400

61,500

2004

39,900 126,00 13,100

75,300

2006

52,200 129,000 14,600

92,300

2008

82,200 132,000 19,600

111,000

2010

105,000 153,000 23,700

128,000

2012

112,000 154,000 26,700

137,000

2014

109,000 154,000 28,200

136,000

2016

96,300 131,000 27,900

114,000

2018

77,900 85,200 27,400

81,200

Table 1b: The four questions and the four answers to each question.

Question A: What climate impacts do people see today?
A1 Sea Levels are rising and flooding is more frequent & obvious
A2 Hurricanes are getting stronger and more frequent – just look at the news
A3 Heat Waves are damaging crops and the food supply
A4 Wildfires are more massive and keep burning down neighborhoods
Question B: What are the underlying risks in 20 years?
B1 Coastal property investments lose money
B2 Children will live in a much lousier world
B3 Governments will start being destabilized
B4 People will turn from optimistic to pessimistic
Question C: What are some actions we can take to avoid these problems?
C1 Right now, implement a global carbon tax
C2 Over time, transfer 10% of global wealth to an environment fund
C3 Create a unified global climate technology consortium for technological change.
C4 Build a solar shade that blocks 2% of sunlight
Question D: What’s the general nature of the system that will mitigate these risks today?
D1 $10trn to move all energy generation to carbon neutral
D2 $20trn to harden the grid and coastal communities
D3 $2trn to build a space based sunshade blocking 2% of sunlight.
D4 $0.02trn to spray particulate into atmosphere to block 2% of sunlight.

Beyond Surveys to the Inside of the Mind

The typical news story about climate changes is predicated on storytelling, combining historical overviews, current economic concerns, description of behavior from a social psychology or sociological viewpoint, and often adoom and gloom prediction which demands immediate action in ordertoday to be forestalled.All aspects are correct, in theory.What is missing is a deeper understanding of the inner thinking of a person when confronting the issue of climate change. There are some papers which do deal with the ‘mind’ of the consumer, usually from the point of view of social psychology, rather than experimental psychology [1].

Most conversations about climate change are general, because of the lack of specific knowledge, and the inability of people to deal with the topic in depth. The topic of climate change and the potential upheavals remains important, but people tend to react in an emotional way, often accepting everything or rejecting what sounds reasonable or what does not sound reasonable, respectively. The result is the ongoing lack of specific information, compounding the growth of anxiety, and the increasingly strident rejectionism by those who fail to respond to a believed impending catastrophe. Another result, just as inaction, is a deep, perplexing, often consuming discourse on the problem, written in way which demonstrates scholarship and rhetorical proficiency, but does not lead to insights or answers, rather to well justified polemics [2-6].The study reported here, a Mind Genomics ‘cartography’ delves into the mind of the average person, to determine what specifics of climate change are believable, what solutions are deemed to be workable, and what elements or messages about climate change engage a person’s attention. The objective is to understand the response to the notion of climate change by focusing of reactions to specifics about climate change, specifics presented to the respondent in the form of small combinations of ‘facts’ about climate [7-9].

Researchers studying how people think about climate follow two approaches, the first being the qualitative approach which is a guided, but free-flowing interview or discussion, the second being a structured questionnaire. The traditional qualitative approach requires the respondent to talk in a group about feelings towards specifics, or even talk an in in-depth, 1:1 interview. These are the accepted methods to explore thinking, so-called focus groups and in-depth interviews. Traditional discussion puts stress on the respondentto recall and state, or, in the language of the experimental psychologist, to produce and to recite. In contrast, the traditional survey presents the respondent with a topic, and asks a variety of questions, to which the respondent selects the appropriate answer, either by choice, or by providing the information.All in all, conventional research gives a sense of the idea, but from the outside in. Reading a book by research can provide extensive information from the outside. Some information from the inside can be obtained from comments by individuals about their feelings.Yet it will be… clearly from the outside, rather than a sense of peering out from the inside of the mind. The qualitative methods may reach into the mind somewhat more deeply because the respondent is asked to talk about a topic and must ‘produce’ information from inside. Both the qualitative and the quantitative methods produce valuable information, but information of a general nature. The insights which may emerge from the qualitative and quantitative methods have a sense of emerging from the ‘outside-in.’ That is, there is insight, but there is not the depth of specific material relevant to the topic, since the qualitative information is in the form of diluted ideas, ideas diluted in a discussion, whereas the quantitative information is structured description with a sense of deep specificity.

The Contribution of Mind Genomics

Mind Genomics is an emerging science, with origins in experimental psychology, consumer research, and statistics.The foundational notion of Mind Genomics is that we can uncover the ways that people make decisions about every-day topics using simple experiments, where people respond to combinations of messages abut the different aspects of the topic. These combinations, created by experimental design, present information to the respondent in a rapid fashion, requiring the respondent to make a quick judgment. The mixture of different messages in a hard-to-disentangle fashion, using experimental design, makes it both impossible to ‘game’ the system, and straightforward to identify which pieces of information drive the judgment.Furthermore, one can discover mind-sets of individuals quite easily, groups of people with similar pattern of what they deem to be important. The approach here, Mind Genomics, makes the respondents job easier, to recognize and react. The messages are shown to the respondent’s job easier, the respondents evaluate the combination, and the analysis identifies which messages are critical, viz, which messages about weather change are important. Mind Genomics approaches the problem by combining messages about a topic, messages which are specific. Thus, Mind Genomics combines the richness of ideas obtained from qualitative research with the statistical rigor of quantitative research found in surveys. Beyond that combination, Mind Genomics is grounded in the world of experiment, allowing the researcher to easily understand the linkage between the qualitatively, rich, nuanced information, presented in the experiment, and the reaction of the respondent, doing so in a manner which cannot be ‘gamed’ by the respondent, in a manner which reveals both cognitive responses (agree/disagree) and non-cognitive response (engagement with the information as measured by response time.)

Mind Genomics follows a straightforward path to understand the way people think about the everyday. Mind Genomics is fast (hours), inexpensive, iterative, and data-intensive, allowing for rapid, up-front analysis and deeper post-study analysis.Mind Genomics has been crafted with the vision of a system which would allow anyone to understand the mind of people, even without technical training. The grand vision of Mind Genomics is to create a science of the mind, a science available to everyone in the world, easy-to-do, a science which creates a ‘wiki of the mind’, a living database of how people think about all sorts of topics.

Doing a Simple Cartography – The Steps

Step 1 – Create the Raw Materials; Topic, Four Questions, Four Answers to Each Question

The cartography process begins with the selection of a topic, here the mind of people with respect to climate change. The topic is only a tool by which to focus the researcher’s mind on the bigger areas.

Following the selection of the topic, the researcher is requested to think of four questions which are relevant to the topic. The creation of these questions may sound straightforward, but it is here that the respondent must exercise create and critical thinking (got rid of word ‘some’), to identify a sequence of questions which ‘tell a story.’ The reality is that it takes about 2-3 small experiments, the cartographies,before the researcher ‘gets it,’ but once the researcher understands how to craft the questions relative to the topic, the researcher’s critical faculty and thinking patterns have forever changed. The process endows the world of research with a new, powerful, simultaneous analytic-synthetic ways to think about a topic, and to solve a problem.Once the four questions are decided upon, the researcher’s next task is to come up with four answers. The perennial issue now arises regarding ‘how do I know I have the right or correct answers?’ The simple answer is one does not. One simply does the experiment, finds out ‘what works,’ and proceeds with the next step of stimuli.After two, three, four, even five or six iterations, each taking 90 minutes, it is likely that one has learned what works and what does not. The iteration consists of eliminating ideas or directions which do not work, trying more of the type of ideas which do work, as well as other exploring other but related directions with other types of ideas.

It is important to emphasize the radically different thinking behind Mind Genomics, which is meant to be fast and iterative, and not merely to rubber stamp or confirm one’s thinking. Speed and iteration lead to a wider form of knowledge, a sense of the boundaries of a topic. In contrast, the more conventional and focused thinking lead to rejection or confirmation, but little real learning.

Step 2 – Combine the Elements into Small Vignettes that will be Evaluatedby the Respondents

The typical approach to evaluation would be to present each of the elements in Table 2 to the respondent, one element at a time, instructing the respondent to rate the element alone, using a scale.Although the approach of isolate and measure is appropriate in science, the approach carries with it the potential of misleading results, based upon the desire of most respondents to give the ‘right answer.’

Mind Genomics works according to an entirely different principle. Mind Genomics presents the answers or elements in what appear to be random combinations, but nothing could be further from the truth. The combinations are well designed, presenting different types of information. It will be the rating of the combination, and then the deconstruction of that rating into the contributions of the 16 individual elements which reveal the mind of the respondent.The experimental design simply ensures that the elements are thrown together in a known but apparently haphazard way, forcing the respondent to rely on intuitive or ‘gut responses,’ the type judgment which governs most of everyday life. Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahnemancalls this ‘System 1’ Thinking, the automatic evaluation of information in an almost subconscious but consistent and practical manner [10].

The underlying experimental design used by Mind Genomics requires each respondent to evaluate 24 different vignettes, or combinations, with a vignette comprising 2-4 elements. Only one element or answer to a question can appear in a single vignette, ensuring that a vignette does not present elements which directly contradict each other, viz., by comprising two elements from the question or silo, presenting two alternative and contradictory answers to the question. The experimental design might be considered as a form of advanced bookkeeping[11].

Many researchers feel strongly that every vignette must have exactly one element or answer from each question.Their point of view is that otherwise the vignettes are not ‘balanced’, viz., some vignettes have more information, some vignettes have less information. Their point of view is acceptable, but by having incomplete vignettes, the underlying statistics, OLS (ordinary least-squares) regression cannotestimate absolute values for coefficients. By forcing each vignette to comprise exactly one element or answer from each question, the OLS regression will not work because the system is ‘multi-collinear.’The coefficients can only be estimated in a relative sense, and not comparable across questions for the study, nor comparable across studies in the same topic, and of course not comparable for different topics.That lack of comparability defeats the ultimate vision of Mind Genomics, viz., to create a ‘wiki of the mind.’A further point regarding the underlying experimental design is that Mind Genomics explores a great deal of the design space, rather than testing the same 24 vignettes with each respondent.Covering the design space means giving up precision obtained by reducing variability through averaging, the strategy followed by most researchers who replicate or repeat the study dozens of times, with the vignettes in different orders, but nonetheless with the same vignettes. The underlying rationale is to average out the noise, albeit at the expense of testing a limited number of vignettes again and again.

Step 3 – Select an Introduction to the Topic and a Rating Scale

The introduction to the topic appears below. The introduction is minimal, setting up as few expectations as possible. It will the job of the elements to convey the information.

Please read the sentences as a single idea about our climate. Please tell us how you feel.

1) No way.

2) Don’t believe, and this won’t work.

3) Believe, but this won’t work.

4) Don’t really believe, but this will work.

5) I believe, and this will work.

The scale for this study is anchored at all five points, rather than at the lowest and at the highest point.The scale deals with both belief in that which iswritten, and belief that the strategy will work.The respondent is required to select one scale point out of the five for each vignette, respectively. The scale allows the researcher to capture both belief in the facts and belief in the solutions.

Step 4 – Invite Respondents to Participate

The respondents are invited to participate by an email. The respondents are member of Luc.id, an aggregator of online panels, with over 20 million panelists. Luc.id, located in Louisiana, in the United States, allows the researcher to tailor the specifications of the respondents. No specifics other than being US residentswere imposed on the panel. The respondents began with a short self-profiling classification questionnaire, regarding age and gender, as well as the answer to the question below:

How involved are you in thinking about the future?

1=Worried about my personal situation with my family

2=Worried about business stability

3=Worried about climate and ecological stability

4=Worried about government stability.

The respondent then proceeded to rate the 24 unique combinations from the permuted experimental design, with the typical time for each vignette lasting about 5-6 seconds, including the actual appearance time, and the wait time before the next appearance[12].The actual experiment thus lasted 2-3 minutes.

Step 6 – Acquire the Ratings and Transform the Data in Preparation for Model

In the typical project the focus of interest is on the responses to the specific test stimuli, whether there be a limited number of test vignettes (viz., not systematically permuted, but rather fixed), or answers to a fixed set of questions.The order of the stimuli or the test questions might be varied but there is a fixed, limited number. With Mind Genomics the focus will be on the contribution of the elements to the responses.Typically, the responses are transformed from a scale of magnitude (e.g., 1-5, not interested to interested), so that the data are binary (viz., 1-3 transformed to 100 to show that the respondents are not interested; 4-5 transformed to 0 to show that the respondent is interested.

As noted above, there are two scales intertwined, a belief in the proposition, and a belief that the action proposed will work. The two scales generate two new binary variables, rather than one binary variable:

Believe:Ratings of 1,2, 4 converted to 0 (do not believe the statements), ratings of 3,5 converted to 100 (believe the statements

Work (Efficacious) Ratings of 1,2,3 converted to 0 (do not believe the solution will work), ratings 4,5 converted to 100 (believe the proposed solution will work).

In these rapid evaluations we do not expect the respondent to stop and think. Rather, it turns out that ‘Believe’ is simply ‘’does it sound true?’ and Work” is simply ‘does it seem to propel people to solve the problem?Both of these are emotional responses. The end-product is a matrix of 24 rows for each respondent, one row for each vignette tested by that respondent. The matrix comprises 16 columns, one column for each of the 16 elements. The cell for a particular row (vignette) and for a particular column (element) is either 0 (element absent from that vignette) or 1 (element present in that vignette). The last four columns of the matrix are the rating (1-5), the response time (in seconds, to the nearest 10th of a second), and the two new binary values for the scales ‘Believe’ and ‘Work’ respectively (0 for not believe or not work, 100 for believe or work, depending upon the rating, plus a small random number < 10-5).

Step 7 – Create Two Models (Equations) for Each Respondent, a Model for Believe, and a Model for Work, and then Cluster the Respondents Twice, First for the Individual ‘Believe’ Models, Second for the Individual ‘Work’ Models

The experimental design underlying the creation of the 24 vignettes for each respondent allows us to create an equation at the respondent level for Believe (Binary) = k0 + k1(A1) + k2(A2) …. + k16(D4).The dependent variable is either 0 or 100, depending upon the value of the specific rating in Step 6.The small random number added to each binary transformed number ensures that there is variation in the dependent variable.

  1. Believe Models. For the variable Believe, applying OLS regression generates the 16 coefficients (k1 – k16) and the additive constant, for each of the 55 respondents. A clustering algorithm (k-means clustering, Distance = (1 – Pearson Correlation)) divides the respondents into two groups. We selected the two groups (called mind-sets) because the meanings of the two groups were clear. Each respondent was then assigned to one of the two emergent groups, viz., mind-sets,based on the respondent’s coefficients for Believe as a dependent variable[13].
  2. Work Models. A totally separate analysis was done, following the same process, but this time using the transformed variable ‘Work’.The respondents were then assigned to one of the two newly developedmind-sets, based only on the coefficient for work.

As a rule of thumb, one can extract many different sets of complementary clusters (mind-sets), but a good practice is to keep the number of such selected sets to a minimum, the minimum based upon the interpretability of the mind-sets. In the interests of parsimony, one should stop as soon as the mind-sets make clear sense.

Step 8 – CreateGroup Equations; Three Models or Equations, One for Believe, One for Work, One for Response Time

Create these sets of three models each for Total Panel, Male, Female, Younger (age 18-39), Older (age 40+), and the mind-sets.Theequations are similar in format, but not identical:

Believe = k0 + k1(A1) + k2(A2) … k16(D4)

Work = k0 + k1(A1) + k2(A2) … k16(D4)

Response Time=k1(A1) + k2(A2) … k16(D4)

For the mind-sets,create two models only.

Mind-Set based on ‘believe’:

Believe = k0 + k1(A1) + k2(A2) … k16(D4)

Response Time= k1(A1) + k2(A2) … k16(D4)

Mind-set based on ‘work’

Work =k0 + k1(A1) + k2(A2) … k16(D4))

Response Time =k1(A1) + k2(A2) … k16(D4).

Results

External Analysis

The external analysis looks at the ratings, independent of the nature of the vignettes, either structure or composition of the vignette in terms of specific elements. We focus here on a topic which is deeply emotion to some. The first analysis that we will focuses on the stability of the data for this deeply emotional topic. As noted above, the Mind Genomics process requires the respondent to evaluate a unique set of 24 vignettes. Are the ratings stable over time or is there so much random variability that by the time the respondent has completed the study the respondent is not paying any more attention, and simply pressing the rating button?We cannot plot the rating of the same vignette across the different positions for the same reason that each respondent tested a totally unique set of combinations. We can track the average rating, the average response time, and then the standard errors of both, across the 24 positions. If the respondent somehow stops paying attention, then the rating should show less variation over time.

Figure 1 shows the averages and standard errors for the two measures, the ratings actively assigned by the respondent, and the response time, not directly a product of the respondent’s ‘judgment,’ but rather a measure of the time taken to respond. The abscissa shows the order in the test, from 1 to 24, and the ordinate shows the statistic.The data show that the response time is longer for the first few vignettes (viz., test order 1-3), but then stabilizes.The data further show that for the most part, the ratings themselves are stable, although there are effects at the start and at the end. Figure 1 suggests remarkable stability, a stability that has been observed for almost all Mind Genomics studies, when the respondents are members of an on-line panel, and remunerated by the panel provided for their participation.

fig 1

Figure 1: The relation between test order (abscissa) and key measures. The top panel shows the analysis of the response times (mean RT on left, standard error of the mean on the right).The bottom panel shows the analysis of theratings (mean rating on the left, standard error of the mean on the right).

The second external analysis shows the distribution of ratings by key subgroups across all of the vignettes evaluated by each key subgroup. For each key subgroup (rows), Table 2 shows the distribution of the five scale points (A), distribution of the two scale points (3,5) points which reflect belief (3,5) distribution of the two scale points (4,5) reflecting positive feeling that the idea ‘works’ The patterns of ratings suggest that a little fewer than half the responses are believe or work. However, we do not know the specific details about which types of messages drive these positive responses. We need a different level of inquiry, an internal analysis into what patterns of elements drive the responses.

Table 2: Distribution of ratings on Net Believe Yes, and Net Work YES five-point scale, by key groups, and by key clusters of scale points.

 

Net Believe YES(% Rating 3 or 5)

Net Work YES(% Rating 4 or 5)

Total

45

44

Vignettes 1-12

43

43

Vignettes 13-24

47

45

Male

46

52

Female

44

36

Age 24x-9

47

49

Age 40+

43

38

Worry business

43

31

Worry about climate

50

52

Worry about family

45

48

Worry about government

43

39

Worry about ‘outside’ (business + climate)

43

35

Worry about ‘inside’ (family + government)

46

49

Belief – MS1

44

48

Belief MS2

47

40

Work – MS 3

46

47

Work – MS4

45

39

Internal Analysis – What Specific Elements Drive or Link with ‘Believe’ and ‘Work’ Respectively?

Up to now we have considered only the surface aspect of the data, namely the reliability of the data across test order (Figure 1), and the distribution of the ratings by key subgroup (Table 2). There is no sense of the inner mind of the respondent, about what elements link with believability of the facts, with agreement that the solution will work, or how deeply the respondent engages in the processing of the message, as suggested by response time. The deeper knowledge comes from OLS (ordinary least squares) regression analysis, which relates the presence/absence of the 16 messages to the ratings, as explicated in Step 8 above.

Table 3 shows the first table of results, the elements which drive ‘believability.’ Recall from the methods section that the 5-point scale had two points with the respondent ‘believing,’ and that these ratings (3,5) generated a transformed value of 100 for the scale of ‘believe’, whereas the other three rating points (1,2,4) were converted to 0.The self-profiling classification also provides the means to assign a respondent based upon what the respondent said was most concerning, worry about self (family, government), worry about other/outside (business, climate).Table 3 shows the additive constant, and the coefficients for each group. Only the Total Panel shows coefficients which are 0 or negative. The other groups show only coefficients which are positive. Furthermore, the table is sorted by the magnitude of the coefficient for the Total Panel.In this way, one need only focus on those elements which drive ‘belief’, viz., elements which demonstrate a positive coefficient. Elements which have a 0 negative coefficient are those which have no impact on believability. They may even militate against believability. Our focus is strictly what drives a person to say ‘I believe what I am reading.’

Table 3: Elements which drive ‘belief ’. Only positive coefficients are shown. Strong performing elements are shown in shaded cells.

table 3

We begin with the additive constant across all of the key groups in Table 3. The additive constants tell us the likelihood that a person will rate a vignette as ‘I believe it’ in the absence of elements. The additive constant is a purely estimated parameter, the ‘intercept’ in the language of statistics. All vignettes comprised 2-4 elements by the underlying experimental design. Nonetheless, the additive constant provides a good sense of basic proclivity to believe in the absence of elements. The additive constants hover between 40 and 50 with two small exceptions of 37 and 53. The additive constant tells us that the respondent is prepared to believe, but only somewhat. In operational terms, an additive constant of 45, for example, means that out of the next 100 ratings for vignettes, 45 will be ratings corresponding to ‘believe,’ viz., selection of rating points 3 or 5, respectively.The story of what makes a person believe lies in the meaning of the elements. Elements whose coefficient value is +8 or higher are strongly ‘significant’ in the world of inferential statistics, based upon the ‘T test’ versus a coefficient with value 0.There are only a few of these elements which drive strong belief.

The most noteworthy finding is that respondents in Q3 Inside (worried about issues close to them) start out with a high propensity to believe (additive constant = 53), but then show no differentiations among the elements. They do not believe anything. In contrast, respondents who say they worry about issues outside of them start with low belief (additive constant = 53), but there are a several of elements which strongly drive their belief (e.g., A4:Wild-Firesare more massive and keep burning down neighborhoods.)They are critical, but willing to believe in what they see, and in what is promised to them.  Table 4 shows the second table of results, elements which drive ‘work’. These elements generate positive coefficients when the ratings 4 or 5 were transformed to 100, and the remaining ratings (1,2,3) were transformed to 0. Only some elements give a sense of a solution, even If not directly a solution.The additive constants showdifferences in magnitude for complementary groups. Since the scale is ‘work’ vs. ‘not work’, the additive constant is the basic belief that a solution will work. The additive constant is higher for males than for females (52 vs. 36), higher younger vs. older (50 v 35), and higher for those who worry about themselves versus those who were about others (49 vs. 36).

Table 4: Elements which drive ‘work’. Only positive coefficients are shown. Strong performing elements are shown in shaded cells.

table 4

The key finding for ‘work’ is that there some positives on two strong ones. The respondents are not optimistic. There is only one element which is dramatic, however, D4, the plan to spray particulates into the atmosphere to block 2% of the sunlight. This element or plan performs strongly among males, and among the older respondents, 40 years and older, although in the range of studies conducted previously, coefficients of 8-10 are statistically significant but not dramatic, especially when they belong to only one element.  Our third group model concerns the response time associated with each element. The Mind Genomics program measured the total time between the presentation of the vignette and the response to the vignette. Response times of 8 seconds or longer were truncated to the value 8. OLS regression was applied to the data of the self-defined subgroups. The form of the equation for OLS regression was: Response Time = k1(A1) + k2(A2) … k16(D4). The key difference moving from binary rating to response time is the removal of the additive constant. The rationale is that we want to see the number of seconds ascribed to each element, for each group. The longer response times mean that the element is more engaging. Table 5 shows the response times for the total panel, the genders, ages, and the two groups defined by what they say worries them.Table 3 shows only those time coefficients of 1.1 second or more, response times or engagement times that are deemed to be relevant and capture the attention.The strongly engaging elements are shown in the shaded cells.

Table 5: Response times of 1.1second or longer for each element by key self-defined subgroups.

table 5

Table 5 suggests that the description of building something can engage all groups

$10trn to move all energy generation to carbon neutral

$20trn to harden the grid and coastal communities

Women alone are strongly engaged when a clear picture is painted, a picture at the personal level:

Coastal property investments lose money

Children will live in a much lousier world

Governments will start being destabilized.

One of the key features of Mind Genomics is its proposal that in every aspect of daily living people vary r in the way they respond to information. These different ways emerge from studies of granular behavior or attitudes, as well as from studies of macro-behavior or attitudes. Traditional segment-seeking research looks for mindsets in the population, trying to find them by knowing their geodemographics.  Both the traditional way of segmentation and the traditional efforts to find these segments in the population end up being rather blunt instruments. The traditional segmentation begins at a high level, encompassing a wide variety of different issues pertaining to the climate, the future, and so forth. The likelihood is minimal of finding the mind-sets with the clear granularity of these mind-sets is low, simply because in the larger scale studies there is no room for the granular, as there is in Mind Genomics, such as this study which deals with 16 elements of stability and destabilization.

Mind Genomics uses a simple k-means clustering divide individuals based upon the pattern of coefficients. The experimental design used in permuted form for each respondent allows the researcher to apply OLS regression to the binary-transformed data of each respondent.The k-means clustering was applied separately to the 55 models for Believe, and separately once again to the 55 models for Work.Both clustering programs came out with similar patterns, two mind-sets for each. The pattern suggested one be called ‘Investment focus’ and the other be called alarmist focus. The strongest performing elements from this study come from the mind-sets, classifying the respondent by the way the respondent ‘thinks’ about the topic, rather than how the respondent ‘classifies’ herself or himself, whether gender, age, or even self-chosen topic of major concern. The mind-sets are named for the strongest performing element. Group 1 (Believed MS1, Work MS4) show elementswhich suggest an ‘investment focus’.Group 2 (Believe MS2, Work MS3) shows elements which suggest an alarmist focus.

Table 6 shows the strong performing elements for the four mind-sets, as well as the most engaging elements for the mind-sets. The reader can get a quick sense of the nature of the mind-sets, both in terms of what they think(coefficients for Believe and for Work, respectively), as well as what occupies their attention and engages them (Response Time) [14].

Table 6: Strong performing coefficients for the two groups of emergent mind-sets after clustering on responses (Part1), and after clustering on response time, viz., engagement (Part 2).

table 6

The mind-sets emerging from Mind Genomics studies do not distribute in the simple fashion that one might expect, based upon today’s culture of Big Data. That is, just knowing WHO a person is does not tell us how a person THINKS. The reality is that there are no simple cross-tabulations or even more complex tabulations which directly assign a person to a mind-set.Topics such as the environment, for example, may have dozens of different facets. Knowing the mind of a person regarding one facet, one specific topic, does not necessarily tell us about the mind of that same person with respect to a different, but related facet.Table 7 gives a sense of the complexity of the distribution, and the probable difficulty of finding these mind-sets in the population based upon simple classifications of WHO is a person is.

Table 7: Distribution of key mind-sets (Investors, Alarmists).

 

Total

Investor (Belief) Investor (Work) Alarmist (Belief)

Alarmist (Work)

Total

56

30 24 26

32

Male

27

15 12 12

15

Female

29

15 12 14

17

Age24-39

31

14 12 17

19

Age40+

25

16 12 9

13

Worry aboutfamily

23

12 8 11

15

Worry about climate

12

8 4 4

8

Worry about government

11

7 6 4

5

Worry about business

10

3 6 7

4

Worry Other (business and climate)

21

10 12 11

9

Worry Self (Family, Government)

35

20 12 15

23

Invest from Believe

30

30 11 0

19

Invest from Work

24

11 24 13

0

Alarm from Work

32

19 0 13

32

Alarm from Believe

26

0 13 26

13

During the past four years authors Gere and Moskowitz have developed a tool to assign new people to the mind-sets. The tool, called the PVI, the personal viewpoint identifier, uses the summary data from the different mind-sets, perturbing these summary data with noise (random variability), and creating a decision tree based upon a Monte Carlo simulation. The decade PVI allows for 64 patterns of responses of six questions answered on a 2-point. The Monte simulation combined with the decision tree returns with a system to identify mind-set member in15-20 seconds.Figure 2 shows a screen shot of the PVI for this study, comprising the introduction, the additional background information stored for the respondent (option), and the six questions, patterns of answers to which assign the respondent immediately to the of the two mind-sets.

fig 2

Figure 2: The PVI for the study.

Discussion and Conclusion

The study described here has been presented in the spirit of an exploration, a cartography, a way to understand a problem without having to invoke the ritual of hypothesis. In most study of the everyday life the reality is that the focus should be on what is happening, not on presenting an hypothesis simply for the sake of conforming to a scientific approach which is many cases is simply not appropriate.The issue of climate change is an important one, as a perusalof the news of the day will reveal just about any day. The issues about the weather, climate change, and the very changes in ‘mother earth’ are real, political, scientific, and challenge all people. Mind Genomics does not deal with the science of weather, but rather the mind of the individual, doing so by experiments in communication.It is through these experiments, simple to do, easy to interpret, that we begin to understand the nature of people, an understanding which should not, however, surprise.The notion of investors and alarmists makes intuitive sense. These are not the only mind-sets, but they emerge clearly from one limited experiment, one limited cartography.One could only imagine the depth of understanding of people as they confront the changes in the weather and indeed in ‘mother earth.’ Mind Genomics will not solve those problems, but Mind Genomics will allow the problems to be discussed in a way sensitive to the predispositions of the listener, whether in this case the listener be a person interested in investment to solve the problem or the person be interested in the hue and the cry of the alarmist. Both are valid ways of listening, and for effective communication the messages directed towards each should be tailored to the predisposition of the listener’s mind. Thus, a Mind Genomics approach to the problem presents both understanding and suggestion for actionable solution, or at least the messages surrounding that actionable solution [2,15-19].

As a final note this paper introduces a novel way to understand the respondent’s mind on two dimensions, not just one. The typical Likert Scale presents the respondent with a set of graded choices, from none to a low, disagree to agree, and so forth. The Likert Scale for the typical study is uni-dimensional. Yet, there are often several response dimensions of interest.This study features two response dimensions, belief in the message, and belief that the solution will work.These response dimensions may or may not be intertwined.Other examples might be belief vs. action (would buy).By using a response scale comprising two dimensions, rather than one, it becomes possible to more profoundly understand the way a person thinks, considering the data from two aspects. The first is the message presented, the stimulus. The second is the decisions of the respondent, to select none, one, or both responses, belief in the problem and/or, belief that the solution will work

Acknowledgement

Attila Gere thanks the support of Premium Postdoctoral Research Program.

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