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fig 2

Creating Mindsets for a Carpet Product – Thoughts on the Practical Effects of Clustering Method

DOI: 10.31038/PSYJ.2022415

Abstract

927 respondents each rated purchase interest for each of 48 vignettes about a carpeting product, each vignette comprising 3-4 phrases from a set of 36 phrases, each vignette specified by an underlying experimental design. The results suggest that using terms written by copyrighters for advertising produces strong performing elements, leading to the conclusion that both the ideas in the study and the writing execution make a difference. Two clustering analyses were done, the first using the data from all 36 elements (FULL), the second using six orthogonal factor generated to replace the original 36 elements (FACTOR). The FULL clusters were more intuitive, and easier to suggesting that despite the attractiveness of using orthogonal variable in clustering, it may be better at a practical level to use the original data.

Introduction

The world of business operates on the recognition that people differ from each other. These differences can emerge from who the people ARE, what the people DO, how the people THINK, and so forth. The discovery of meaningful differences across people comprises on of the basic tenets of science, as well as differences in how one will behave, viz., important both at the level of theory and the level of application. One need only look at the Greek philosophers Plato to discover the importance of differences among people in the nature of their ‘rulers,’ [1], or at Aristotle’s science oeuvre [2], which based itself on classification as the first step.

The importance of difference among people found its key business use in the world of marketing. Consumer researchers, tasked with ‘understanding the market’ would instruct respondents to profile themselves on a variety of different characteristics, these ranging from geo-demographics (Who they are), to behavior (what they do, e.g., on the internet search and purchase), to what they believe.

Since the 1960’s consumer researchers have formally recognized the emerging discipline of psychographics, the method dividing people by how they think about the world The early efforts in psychographics assumed that the divisions among people provided a strong new way to think about marketing [3,4]. This belief in major divisions would lead to books such as the Nine Nations of North America [5], and at the most complex, the dozens of different groupings of people in the Prizm, offered by Claritas [6]. The recognition that people differ as much or more by their proclivities, by how they thank rather than by who they are, is to be applauded, even if the massive divisions of people into groups do not predict the precise language to which each group will be attracted when a particular product is offered.

The efforts of consumer researchers to find ‘basic groups’ in the population was not driven as much by science as by the effort to find the ‘magic key’ to a product. It was clear in concept tests (about new products), in product tests (how well did a product perform), and in tracking studies (attitudes and practices) that people who bought the same type of product, or even the same product, often differed in terms of who they were. That difference was an obstacle to even better product performance, because the marketer and the product developer were left with two or more groups wanting the product but wanting substantially different variations.. If the researcher could discover the ‘nature’ of the different physical product and then communication desired by a group of targeted consumers, it would be possible to create the best product for each group and communicate what each group needed to here. Such would be the opportunity for better market performance, especially when talented product designers and talent advertising agencies could work together after understanding the range preferences in a population for this same product. The knowledge-specifics about these different ‘mind-sets’ has a practical consequences of a positive nature in the in the business world.

Mind Genomics and the Focus on the Everyday

The discovery of mind-sets for a product or service has been a long, expensive research task, one which deals with high level issues, then brought to the level of the individual product or service through subsequent smaller scale research building off these large studies. One consequence of the size and expense of the studies is that they are buried in the corporate archives, used well or poorly for business purposes, to guide advertising/marketing, and even new product development. The result ends up being little knowledge about these mind-sets that a non-businessperson can access.

Mind Genomics, the emerging science of the everyday, has as its focus the study of what is relevant in terms of the specifics of everyday experience, as well as the discovery of mind-sets revolving around that experience. The approach differs dramatically from the conventional efforts. Conventional efforts, reflected in big studies, attempt to divide the minds of the consuming public in a grand way, to establish basic groups applicable to many aspects of a person’s behavior The goal is to find a few mind-sets which are relevant across a many different but related topics, such as mind-set of house decorating, mind-sets of the automobile experience, mind-sets of the financial experience, and so forth. In contrast, .Mind Genomics works in the opposite way, from the bottom up, in the style of a pointillist painter. For the Mind Genomics researcher, the focus is the basics, the specifics of a situation, and the existence of mind-sets relevant to that situation.

A great deal has been appeared on Mind Genomics, especially since 2006 [7,8]. The topic of this paper is in the spirit of ‘methodology,’ specifically the study of methods. The essential output of Mind Genomics is the reduction of the population of different people into a set of non-overlapping groups, these groups emerging from the pattern of responses to a set of stimuli emerging from a choice experiment. We will use the templated approach, considering two topics, the nature of mind-sets emerging when the clustering method generates 2, 3 or 4 mindsets, and the type of information and useful of the results if one tried to pre-process the data ahead of time to make the inputs more statistically robust.

The Mind Genomics science traces its origins to methods known collectively as conjoint measurement. Originally an effort in mathematical psychology to create a better form of measurement (Luce & Tukey, 1964), conjoint measurement would go on to spur a great deal of creative work, but in method and in application, spearheaded first by the late Professor Paul Green of Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania), and carried out and expanded by his colleagues at Wharton and later at other universities around the world [9-13].

The Mind Genomics Process to Understand What to Communicate, and to Whom

At the level of execution, the process is templated, and straightforward. The remaining sections of this paper will deal with the issue of understanding the nature of what is learned, when the research extracts different numbers of mind-sets from the same data (viz., 2 vs 3 vs 4 mind-sets), and when the research pre-processes data to produce what might be thought of as a more tractable set of variables (viz., six orthogonal factors vs 36 original coefficients as inputs for clustering).

1. Choose the Topic

The researcher chooses a topic. typically, the topics of Mind Genomics are of limited scope. The limited scope comes from the conscious decision to create a science from specifics, hypothesis generating, not hypothesis testing. The limited topic, something from the everyday, is not typically of interest to the researcher trying to understand a broad topic such as human decision making under stress, but rather limited to a topic that is often overlooked, such as decision making about the purchase of a flooring item. That topic, usually relegated to the world of business, and often simply overlooked by scientists as irrelevant the larger proscenium arch of behavior, happens to be an important part, or at least a relevant part, of the real world in which people live and behave. The topic of floor coverings has been studied by academics and business because it is so important in daily life, because it has business implications for sales, and because the topics it touches range from ecology, to choice, to the fascination of the mind of the do-it-yourself amateur [14-17]

2. Create the Raw Material, following a Template:

Mind Genomics prescribes a set of inputs, following a template. The templated design selects a certain number of variables (called questions or dimensions). The variables or questions ‘tell a story’. The questions never appear in the study. The questions are used only to guide the researcher who must provide answers to the questions. Sometimes, such as the case with this study, the questions or dimensions are simply bookkeeping tools to make sure that mutually contradictory elements can never appear together in a vignette. For this study, the researchers selected the so-called 6×6 design. as shown in Table 1. The elements are stand-alone phrases, painting a word picture.

Table 1: The six questions and the six elements (answers) for each group (viz. answers). The structure is only a bookkeeping device to ensure that mutually contradictory elements will not appear together in a vignette

table 1

3. Use an Experimental Design to Specific the Combinations

Mind Genomics works by presenting the individual with a large set of vignettes created by the experimental design. The design prescribes the precise combinations, doing so in a which makes each element appear equally often, appear statistically independently of every other element, and in a manner that the combinations evaluated by one person differ from the combinations evaluated by another person. This approach, permuted experiment design [18] ensures that the study covers a great deal of the possible combinations. The experiment design combined these 36 elements into 48 vignettes, combinations of element, with the properties that 36 of the 48 vignettes comprised four elements (at most one element or answer from a question). whereas the remaining 12 of the 48 vignettes comprised three elements (again, at most one element from a question).

4. The Mind Genomics System Creates the Test Stimuli to be Evaluated by the Respondents

Figure 1 shows one of the vignettes. The vignette seems a haphazard collection of elements, presented in a strange, centered format without connectives. To professional marketers this type of format may best disconcerting. The reality, however, is that the format is exactly what is needed to present the relevant information. The respondent cannot ‘guess’ the right answer. Shortly after the start of the evaluation of 48 vignettes, the respondent stops trying to ‘be right’, and simply responds at an intuitive, gut level. it is precisely this gut response, which best matches the ordinary behavior of individuals faced with the task of selecting a product. Despite the feeling of marketers that their ‘offering’ is special, and engages the customer, and despite the best efforts of advertising agencies their ‘creative’ these mundane situations generate are generally faced with indifference. It is decision within the world of indifference that must be understood, not decision making occurring when a mundane situation is focused upon, and unusual amounts of attention to something that would be simply considered, a decision made, and the person then move on.

fig 1

Figure 1: Example of a vignette comprising four elements. The rating scale appears below, showing a 9-point purchase scale (1=Not likely to purchase… 9=Very likely to purchase

5. Orient the Respondents

The respondents were oriented by a screen which provided just enough background information to alert the respondent to the nature of the product whose messages were being tested with Mind Genomics. For the purposes of this paper on method, it is not necessary to identify the manufacturer, but it was identified at the actual study. Figure 2 shows the orientation page.

fig 2

Figure 2: The orientation screen

Analytics

6. Transform the Responses to a More Tractable Form

Our first step of analysis is to consider whether we will keep the 9-point scale, or whether we will change the scale to something more tractable. Most researchers familiar with the 9-point Likert scale, or indeed with any category scale or ratio scale, will wonder why the need for change. It is easier to begin with a good scale, with good anchors and stay with that scale. At the level of science, the suggestion is correct. At the level of the manager working with the data, nothing could be further from reality. Managers are interested in what the scale numbers mean. The statistical tractability of the 9-point scale is a matter of passing interest. It’s the meaning, the usefulness of the data as an aid to make decision which is important.

The conventional approach in consumer research is to transform the data, so that the data becomes a binary scale, yes/no. The manager is more familiar with, and more comfortable with yes/no decisions. There is no issue of ‘what do the numbers’ mean. In the spirit of this ease of use of binary scales, yes/no, the data were transformed. Ratings of 1-6 were transformed to ‘0’ to denote ‘no’, different gradations of not purchasing. Ratings of 7-9 were transformed to ‘0’ to denote ‘yes’. To each of these transformed numbers was added a vanishingly small random number (10-5). That action becomes prophylactic, preventing any individual respondent from generating all 0’s or all 100’s across the 48 vignettes evaluated by the individual. If the respondent were to rate all the vignettes 1-6, showing variation, the transformation would bring these to 0, and the regression analysis to follow would ‘crash.’ In the same way, were the respondent to rate all vignettes 7-9, the transformation would bring these to 100. In the actual data, 12 respondents generated all 0’s, but 284 respondents generated all 100’s because they found enough appealing in each vignette to assign the rating of 7-9.

7. Relate the Response (TOP3) to the Presence/Absence of the Elements Using ALL the Data

Mind Genomics uses so-called dummy variable regression, a variation of OLS (ordinary least squares regression Hutcheson, 2019). The analysis is first done at the level of the total panel. The independent variables are all 36 elements. Each respondent generates 48 rows of data, each row corresponding to one of the 48 vignettes the respondent evaluated. The data matrix for each respondent comprises 36 columns, one column for each element. The cell for a particular vignette has the number ‘0’ when the element is absent from the vignette, and the number ‘1’ when the element is present. There is no interest in the meaning the element. It is simply a case of being presence (1) or absent (0). The objective of the analysis is to determine the ‘weights’ or coefficients of the 36 elements, from the total panel.

The data are now ready for the first pass, viz., combining all the data into one database comprising 48 rows for each respondent, and 927 respondents. The equation is: TOP3 = k0 +k1(A1) +k2(A2) … k6(F6). Although the respondent evaluated combinations comprising three and four elements in a vignette, the OLS regression is easily able to pull out the part-worth contributions, the coefficients. The first estimated parameter, k0, is the so-called the additive constant. The remaining estimated parameters, coefficients k1-k36, are the weights for respective elements.

The coefficients are additive, viz., they can be added to the additive constant. The combination (additive constant + sum of elements in the vignette) provides a measure of how well the vignette is expected to perform. The only requirement is that the vignette comprises 3-4 elements.

8. Interpret the Results from the First Modeling

Table 2 shows the coefficients for the 36 elements as well as for the additive constant. Note that this will be the only time that the full set of 36 coefficients and the additive constant will be shown, to give a sense of the impact of each element. The Mind Genomics process produces what could become an overwhelming volume of data, the sheer wall of numbers disguising the strong performing elements.

Table 2: Coefficients of the 36 elements, sorted by the value in descending. The three strongest performing elements are shown as shaded cells

table 2

The additive constant, 49, is the estimated proportion of times people will rate the vignette as 7-9 (likely to purchase or very likely to purchase) in the absence of elements. The additive constant is a purely estimated parameter because by design all vignettes comprised 3-4 elements. Nonetheless, the additive constant gives a sense of the predisposition to buy. The value 49 means that about 49% viz., about half the people are likely to say to buy, even in the absence of elements which provide information. The additive constant of 50 is typical for a commercial product of moderate interest. s reference points, the additive constant for credit cards is around 10, the additive constant for pizza is about 65. Our first conclusion is that there is a moderate basic interest in the carpet design squares. The elements will have to do a fair amount of work to drive interest. The ‘work’ comprises the discovery of strong elements.

The coefficients in Table 2 may initially disappoint the researcher because out of 36 elements only three elements perform strongly from the total panel of 927 individuals. There might be at least two things going on to produce such poor performing elements. The first is that the messages are simply mediocre, despite the best effort of copyrighters and professionals to offer what they believe to be good messages. In such a case there is no option but to return to the drawing board and start again. The problem is in which direction, and how? The second is that we are dealing with groups of people in the population, mind-sets, who pay attention to different messages. The poor performance may emerge because we mix these people together, and their patterns of preferred elements cancel each, like streams colliding, preventing each other from continuing on their respective paths. In other words, the poor performance from the total panel may emerge from mutual cancellation of what otherwise be strong performance of some elements.

Clustering the Respondents into Two, Three, and Four Mind-sets

9. Create 927 Individual-levels to Prepare for Clustering into Mind-sets

The permuted experimental design is set up so that each respondent evaluated the precise types of combinations needed to run the OLS regression on the data of that individual. Thus, by running the 927 regressions, one per respondent, one gets a signature of the respondent in terms of the respondent’s mind-set regarding the product. The next step in the analysis runs the 927 different OLS regressions, storing them in a single matrix along with the self-profiling classification that the respondent did at the end of the evaluations.

10. Clustering the Respondents

Clustering is a popular technique to divide ‘things’ by the features that they have. Things, e.g., respondents, can be defined by the pattern of their 36 coefficients. Respondents with similar patterns belong in the same cluster, which will be called ‘mind-set’ because the clusters show what the respondents feel to be important for this flooring product. The respondents may not be similar at all in any way, but they are similar in their pattern of responses in this study.

11. Use K-Means Clustering (Likas et. al., 2003)

K-Means measures the distance between two respondents, based upon the similarity of their 36 coefficients. K-Means clustering tries to maximize the ‘distance’ between the two centroids of 36 numbers each computed on the respondents in the cluster, while at the same time minimize the sum of the pairwise distances within a cluster. ‘Distance’ between two respondents based upon the 36 coefficients was operationally defined as the quantity (1-Pearson Correlation Value). The Pearson correlation takes on the value of 1.00 when the 36 elements are perfectly linearly related to each other, making the distance (1-R)= 0. The Pearson correlation takes on the value 0f -1 when the 36 elements are perfectly inversely related to each other, making the distance (1-R)=2 (1 – – 1 = 2).

12. Interpret the Data

Table 3 shows the strong performing elements from three segmentation exercises: breaking the data into two mind-sets (clusters), breaking the data into three mind-sets,), and breaking the data into four mind-sets . There is an abundance of strong performing element within each cluster. We have created an artificial cutoff point of coefficients of 16 or higher being strong, and coefficients of 15 or lower being less relevant. The reality of the product, and the nature of the respondents presented with a real product show the strong performance of elements, performance hard to obtain with theory-based ideas. For this study, the elements in the table are selling points of real products, relevant to everyday life, not theory-based ideas lacking the life-giving power of reality and everyday importance.

Table 3: Strong performing elements four two, three, and four mind-sets emerging from the clustering the original 36 coefficients

table 3

It is important to recognize that the mind-sets are easy to name. The strongly performing coefficients share some ideas in common. Based upon the strong performing elements one gets a sense of the respondent’s way of thinking in each mind-sets. it is also important to note that there is no ‘one correct’ number of mind-sets. The mind-sets tend to repeat but increasingly finer distinctions emerge between and among mind-sets as the number go from two to four

From 36 Down to 6 – Can We Improve the Clustering by Creating Fewer but Uncorrelated Predictors?

13. Hypothesis Based Upon the Efforts to Find ‘Primaries’

Although the 36 elements were put together in a way which may their appearances statistically independent of each other, the reality is that the elements might be skewed to one or another aspect, such as fewer elements in one topic area, and many more elements in another topic area. The Mind Genomics system tries to instill a balance in the nature of the elements used by forcing an equal number of elements or answers for each question. That strategy works for academic subjects but may not be the appropriate when the businessperson is trying to understand the mind of the customer.

With 36 elements, it may be advantageous to reduce the number of elements to a smaller set of ‘pseudo-elements,’ mathematical entities called factors which are uncorrelated with each other [19]. The application of principal components factor analysis to these data, with a moderate but not severe criterion for extracting a factor (eigenvalue > 2) produced a set of six uncorrelated ‘pseudo elements,’ the factors. The six emergent factors were uncorrelated with each other by the process of factor analysis. The factor structure was further simplified by rotating the six factors to a simple form, using Quartimax rotation. Finally, each of the 927 respondents become a point in this new six-dimensional space, where the rotated factor because the new ‘elements’, and thus name pseudo elements.

A Technical Note

The method of reducing the 36 elements to uncorrelated factors involves a great number of alternative choices, as does the method for creating the clusters of mind-sets. This paper simply chooses one way for exploratory purposes. Other factor analyses decisions might lead to different clusters, and a different decision. The foremost stated, this exploration is simply looking at a possible way to improve our knowledge emerging from the experiment, not as a method for ultimate discover of the ‘one array of mind-sets.

14. Interpret the Data

Table 4 recreates the two, three, and four mind-sets, this time using the clustering based upon the six factor scores of each of the 927 respondents, rather than on the original 36 coefficients for each of the 927 respondents. The results at first look promising in terms of many more elements emerging.. We see several interesting departures from what we saw in Table 3, which showed the same clustering, but with the full set of 36 coefficients. Returning to Table 4 we see that one of the additive constants is always high, suggesting that there is one mind-sets which is strongly predisposed to the items. Generally, this group will respond to most elements because their basic interest is high. The other one, two or three mind-sets show much lower constants, but many strong performing elements. The second observation is that these mind-set created after factor analysis are harder to name, because they comprise many more elements. The greater number of viable elements may have emerged because the additive constants are low, however.

Table 4: Strong performing elements among four two, three, and four mind-sets emerging from the clustering the six factor scores emerging from the 36 coefficients

table 4

15. Basic Composition of Mind-sets, Gender and Age

Mind Genomics continues to reveal that there is no simple relation between who a person IS and the mind-set to which a person belongs. Table 5 shows the composition of the mind-sets, by gender and by age. The patterns which emerge from Table 5 can be augmented by much more in-depth tabulations, beginning with more details about WHO the person is, what the person DOES at home regarding home decor, attitudes and behavior regarding SHOPPING, and so forth. The important thing is that by knowing more in-depth about the respondents, as well as the respondent membership, it might be possible to assign a new person to one of the segments.

Table 5: composition of the mind-sets by gender and by age, respectively

table 5

Discussion

16. The thrust of this paper is methodology, the study of method in the true sense of the word. The effort to understand method began with a simple question, ‘how many clusters or mind-sets to extract.’ It devolved into two questions of the same sort, one dealing with extracting mind-sets with the elements as is, and the other with extracting mind-sets after the elements have been reduced to orthogonality through factor analysis. And finally, the third and not directly stated question, why do the elements score so highly in this study, whereas in most Mind Genomics studies the elements rarely score this highly.

17. Question 1: Why do These Elements Score So Well, When in Most Mind Genomics Studies the Elements Score Poorly?

The answer to this comes from two aspects and can be best considered as conjectures. The topic of floor coverings is interesting, comprising interesting stand-alone elements which educate and intrigue people. In contrast, most of the topics worked on by Mind Genomics are more generic, deal with topics that are not so interesting, and fail to incorporate engaging information to present to the respondent. So, for the first answer the conjectures are we are dealing with an interested population, in a topic which can provide interesting information, rather than dealing with a topic whose ideas are usually watered down so that they provide little ‘juicy’ information to think about. In other words, it may be that conventional studies are simply bland.

18. Question 2: How Many Mind-sets to Extract

When we look at Tables 3 and 4, the results from the clustering our issue is that we just don’t know whether we should opt to call the mind-set by the most prevalent type of element in the mind-set, or whether we should accept the mind-set as comprising a mélange of different meanings. This problem of a mélange of different meanings will stop being a problem when we end up allowing six, seven eight or more clusters.

19. In the words of Harvard’s eminent psychology and founder of Modern-day Psychophysics, S.S. Stevens (d. 1973) ‘Validity is a matter of opinion.’ In Stevens’ words, as long as the experiments are performed correctly the answers are valid. All four solutions, Total, two, three and four mind-sets, would be equally valid if one were dealing with stimuli having no cognitive richness. The clustering algorithm does not pay attention to the underlying nuanced meanings of the element. If we were to assume that the elements are in some unknown language, and we extract two, three and found mind-sets, which solution would be correct? All would be equally valid in mathematical terms.

20. The issue is quite different when we work with elements. These elements have a great deal of meaning, cognitive richness. When we extract the clusters, we can look at the meaning of the element, and from the meaning decide upon the nature of the cluster. Based upon Table 3 the best strategy is work with four mind-sets, if these mind-sets can be identified. Each mind-set focuses on a different aspect of floor materials.

21. Question 3: Do Orthogonal Variables, Presumably Balancing Out Different Ideas, Produce More Interpretable, Tighter Clusters or Mind-sets?

Is it better to work with the original set of elements when creating mind-sets, or should we reduce the elements to a set of mathematically independent variables, such as our six factors? Table 4 suggests that it was difficult to find a simple guiding theme for each cluster or mind-set, despite the emergence of high positive coefficients. As a result, it is probably better to work with the original set of elements, and not perform the factor analysis to produce a smaller group. In the end, we want to make sure that the mind-sets we identify are real and meaningful, and that the combinations generated from these mind-sets make sense and score as high as possible.

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fig 3

Negotiating to Buy an Economy Car, KIA: A Mind Genomics Cartography of Sales Messages and Dealer Concessions

DOI: 10.31038/MGSPE.2022213

Abstract

Respondents evaluated systematically varied vignettes describing an automobile from brand KIA. The elements, component messages, presented stand-alone information about the product, performance, service, etc. Each respondent evaluated 48 unique vignettes, rating each vignette on purchase intent, and on the monetary concession that the dealer would have to provide to generate a rating of ‘definitely buy’ for that particular vignette. As the respondent proceeded through the sequential evaluation, the average rating of purchase intent decreased but so did the average dollar concession requested from the dealer. Deconstruction of the ratings into the part-worth contributions of each element revealed two minds-sets of equal size for when the mind-sets were derived from purchase intent (MS1 – Focus on car; MS2 – Focus on driver & situation), and two other mind-sets when derived from price concession (MS3 – Focus on the driving feeling of good product, good experience, good interaction with dealer; MS4 – Responds to deferential dealer, and boast-worthy car). A Mind Genomics cartography of a conventional scenario, e.g., person buying a car, can provide additional, easy-to-develop understanding of how the respondent negotiates, as well as reveal the specific messages which drive a respondent to say YES, MAYBE, or NO.

Introduction

With today’s improvements in technology, new opportunities are emerging to improve the skills of negotiation, ranging from courses on negotiation to electronic-based negotiation [1-3], as well as approaches, such as artificial intelligence. It should come as no surprise that along with the developments in the world of sales capabilities, a great deal of research has been published on the mind of the car buyer. The volume of information should not be surprising for the simple reason that cars are so important to the economy of the world. Next to a house, and education of one’s children, it is the car which often is the most expensive discretionary purchase of ‘something’. It should be no wonder that there has been much published [4]. A Google(r) search for ‘buying an automobile’ generates 907,000 hits for Google Scholar (r) and an astonishing 157 million hits for Google(r), both as of January 9, 2022.

This paper approached the issue of car buying from the point of view of one car, KIA. The objective was to understand from a general population what would be the most compelling messages, both in terms of ability to drive purchase intent, and , in a novel twist, the ability to create motivating price concessions from dealers [5]. Rather than qualifying a respondent ahead of time as interested or not interested in buying a KIA (pre-study screening based on one qualifying question), the study worked with a cross-sectional group of respondents, selecting in the end one or approximately four respondents would, when shown vignettes about KIA, rated at least one vignette ‘9’ (definitely buy), and one vignette ‘1’ (definitely not buy).

How Mind Genomics Works, and Differs from Conventional Attitude Research

Mind Genomics studies present respondents with combinations of messages, so-called vignettes, acquire the respondent’s reactions to these vignettes, and show the link between each element in the study, and the response which is engenders. Side analyses are also feasible and often illuminating, especially when the respondent assigns two types of ratings to the same vignette. In this study the respondent rated both purchase intent and amount of monetary concession from the dealer required to drive a rating of the vignette to ‘definitely buy.’ The Mind Genomics study is really an ‘experiment’, although couched in the form of an online research study, almost a survey although quite different from the classical surveys. The approach has been successfully implemented to create landing pages, and marketing messages for museums [6,7]. The approach provides a general way to understand the different points of view in the negotiation [8]. The overarching world-view of Mind Genomics is to create a usable, searchable, and scalable database about a topic that would seem ordinary, often under-explored, but in actuality reflects a relevant and often important aspect of daily life [9].

The Mind Genomics Method Applied to a Situation – Presenting Information about Brand KIA

The easiest way to understand the study is to follow the study process step by step for a study. The study introduced some departures from the standard Mind Genomics process, departures because of the initial commercial focus of the study, and from the realization that one had to work with respondents who could be persuaded to change their minds, rating at least one vignette 1 (definitely not buy), and rating at least one vignette 9 (definitely buy). If respondents could not be persuaded, the study would not allow us to assume we were dealing with individuals who could be persuaded. The criterion of at least one rating of ‘1’ (definitely not buy) along with at least one rating of ‘9’ (definitely buy) allowed us to reduce the set of respondents from 251 to 63. Thus, we can look at the larger study as the ‘screener’ from which we take only respondents who behaviorally could be swayed at least once. The observation that we discard 75% of the data is tempered by the fact that the data is more relevant to KIA because of this criterion.

Step 1: Create the Raw Materials for the Experiment

Select the topic, create six questions or topics relevant to the topic, and for each question provide six answers. Mind Genomics takes this raw material, the answers (not the questions), combines the raw material into vignettes, small combinations of messages, presents the combinations to the respondent and obtains a rating. Table 1 shows the raw material, put into the form of a table, comprising the six questions and the six answers (also called elements) to each question.

Table 1: The elements for the KIA study

table 1

It is important to keep in mind that the format of question and answer helps to drive the creation of the answers, viz., the raw material that will be shown to the respondent. When Mind Genomics was first introduced in the 1990’s, some thirty years ago, the request by users was to create a system which could handle many alternatives, while at the same time ensuring that a test stimulus, the so-called vignette or combination of elements, would never present mutually contradictory elements. By putting all mutually contradictory elements into a single question, and by ensuring that vignette would comprise at most one answer to a question, it was certain that the mutually contradictory elements would not appear together.

The second reason for the question and answer format is that it made creating the elements easier. Rather having to think about the topic in the abstract, the evolving Mind Genomics applications began feature a template, allowing the researcher to create a story. The respondent had to fill in the questions for the story (different aspects of the same topic), and the answers (elements) for each question. The process was easier because the researcher was given a structure within which to work (Table 1).

Step 2: Create Vignettes, Combining Messages, These Vignettes to be Evaluated by Respondents

Rather than instructing the respondent to rate each message one at a time, of course in random order to reduce bias, Mind Genomics works with combinations of messages, the vignettes. The vignettes are prescribed by an underlying experimental design, a recipe book, specifically created for Mind Genomics. Rather than creating the vignettes by randomly combining the elements, the underlying experimental design ensures that that each element appears equally often, that the combinations of elements allow for the analysis at the level of the respondent, and that the actual vignettes evaluated by each respondent differ from the vignettes evaluated by the other respondents. In this way the experimental design investigates much of the possible combinations (space filling), increasing the chances of discovery by testing more of the design albeit with less precision, instead of small parti of the design space but with more precision (Gofman & Moskowitz, 2011). Mind Genomics is best suited for finding out what really works, in a simulated real world situation where the test stimuli are compound, as they are in nature.

The experimental design prescribes by Mind Genomics for the array of six questions and six answers (elements) per question requires 48 different vignettes. The 48 vignettes comprise 36 vignettes having four elements, and 12 vignettes having the three elements. No question contributed more than one element to a vignette. The experimental design prescribed 36 vignettes in which two questions of six did not contribute an element, and 12 vignettes in which three questions did not contribute an element. The specific elements absented from the combination was dictated by the underlying experimental design, making the entire process straightforward, creatable by a template.

The benefit of the design as described above, viz. 3-4 elements, is that the design allows the researcher to estimate the absolute value of the coefficient, simply because the elements are not collinear. The issue may seem purely ‘theoretical’ until one realizes that many managers demand that their vignettes be complete, incorporating exactly one element from each question (in our case vignettes each of six elements), not realizing that this demand reduces the power of the analysis. Fortunately, Mind Genomics avoid the collinearity issue entirely.

Figure 1A shows an example of a vignette, instructing the respondent to rate the vignette on the Likert scale of likely to buy. The scale is anchored at both ends, but not in the middle. The respondent reads the vignette as a single offering, and rate the vignette on the 9-point scale. The effort is easy because the respondent is presented with a vignette, a combination of elements. It makes ‘sense’ to rate the combination. One does not have to have a lot of information to rate the combination; it suffices simply to have a sense that this could be a real offering. It should be kept in mind that the scale below presents the two ends of the scale, not the middle. The rating ‘9’ (Definitely Will Buy, also called TOP1) will play a featured role in the analyses.

fig 1a

Figure 1A: Example of a four element vignette, with the instructions to rate the vignette

Another aspect of the Mind Genomics effort is the introduction of economics into the study, in this study through price as a rating scale. There are many way ways to incorporate price, such as price as one of the elements, as in Table 1. When price becomes an element (or really several prices become several elements), the objective is to discover how price drives the interest in buying the car. In such a case the typical observation is that people are less interested in buying the car assigned low ratings on the 9-point scale when the same car is offered at the higher price.

Another way to incorporate price is to ask a respondent how much she or he would pay for the car. Experience with price as a rating scale in Mind Genomics suggests that the price willing to pay for a car positively related to the liking of the car but the range of economic ratings are far more constrained than the range emotional ratings. That is, people may love the vignette describing the car (a response of their emotional or hedonic mind’ homo emotionalis), but they are not willing to pay a lot. Emotion is one thing, money is another.

The world of selling and buying presents us with a different problem, more of the type ‘how much of a discount does one have to give to a person for that person to seriously consider buying the product’. We need only look at the signs which features price discounts, or go to an automobile sales office to see the negotiation in real life. The salesperson is trained to reduce price until the buyer agrees to buy the car, walks out, or the process stops because the buyer and the salesperson cannot agree upon a price acceptable to both parties. This study attempted to replicate the give and take by asking the second question ‘If you could get these valuable offerings for less, what monthly savings (if any) would entice you to buy this car over a competitor’s car?

Figure 1B shows the same vignette, this time with second question replacing the first. The rationale for presenting the two questions, one after the other, is to reduce the effort on the respondent, who find the 48 vignettes sufficiently taxing to evaluate, and are compensated for their efforts. Doubling the amount of stimuli is simply infeasible.

fig 1b

Figure 1B: The same vignette, this time with the price question

Step 3: Create the Orientation Page

The Mind Genomics interview comprises two parts, one of which is the evaluation of the systematically varied vignettes (Figures 1A and 1B), and the second is the completion of the self-profiling questionnaire. The respondent who participates usually does not know the reason for the study, and probably has never done this type of study (or experiment) before. The orientation, viz. the first screen that the respondent reads, presents information about the study.

Figure 2 shows the orientation screen. The screen presents just enough information to tell the respondent about the topic, but little more. It is the job of the elements shown in Table 1 to drive the judgment. Thus, the screen is simply a list of expectations that the respondent should have, such as the meaning of the scales, and the requirement that the respondent ‘mentally integrate’ the information into one idea, something which comes naturally to people. No effort is made to tell the respondent anything else. One recent practice, not done here, is to tell the respondent to give their immediate response, the practice emerging from post-study discussions with respondents who worried that they were not giving the ‘right answers.’ In this study, with the name KIA featured in the elements, and in the rating sale, it was deemed better to let the respondent evaluate the information in the way she or he ordinarily evaluates information when buying a car.

fig 2

Figure 2: Orientation page for the study

Step 4: Obtain Respondents, Orient the Respondent, and Collect the Data

The respondents were provided by an on-line panel provider, Turk Prime, Inc., located in the metro New York area, with respondents across the entire United States. A total of 251 respondents agreed to participate, and competed the study, the entire process taking about three days, as different waves of invitations were dispatched. The only requirement was that the respondents had to be older than 21 years old. No effort was made to match the sample to any target. The information about the respondents was obtained by the self-profiling classification, whose questions are shown in Table 2.

Table 2: Self profiling questions

table 2

Step 5 – Identify the ‘Discriminators’ Who Could be Swayed

The typical Mind Genomics study focuses on issues of ‘how people think about the topic.’ This study dealt with responses to a specific car brand, KIA. The objective was to identify the relevant elements which would convince a prospective customer to say YES, viz. to say ‘I will definitely purchase this KIA car, when confronted with at least one vignette, and would also say ‘I will definitely NOT purchase this KIA car’ when confronted with another vignette. This criterion, viz., at least one vignette driving to a rating of ‘9’, and another vignette driving to a rating of ‘1’, reduced the 251 respondents to 63 respondents whose ratings showed that they could be swayed strongly, both positively (assigning at least one rating of 9, Definitely Buy), and negatively (assigning at least one rating of 1, Definitely NOT Buy). Table 3 shows the distribution of these 63 respondents in terms.

Table 3: Base sizes of key groups of the 63 respondents whose data are analyzed

table 3

Step 6: Is There a Pattern of Covariation between Interest in Purchasing the KIA and Price Concession?

The question is now the pattern, if any, between the rating of purchase intent (rows in Table 4) and the desired concession from the dealer (columns in Table 4). We might think that that a respondent who is ready to purchase the car would require less of a concession from the dealer, because the basic presentation of the car in the vignette is already attractive. The dealer concession would be a ‘sweetener’, but not the major driver, since the respondent has already said that she or he would buy the car (viz., a rating of 9, 8 or 7, respectively).

Table 4: Cross tabulation of the percent of respondents selecting a specific dealer concession for each level of rating assigned by the respondents. The rows add up to 100%.

table 4

The pattern which emerges from Table 4 is not what we have expected.

  1. There is a linear relation between rated purchase intent and amount desired to close the deal, but paradoxically, the relation goes in the opposite direction from what might be expected.
  2. Those vignettes rated 9 (Definitely Buy) are overwhelming associated with a dealer incentive of $450. The dealer incentive is not to change the interest but to close the deal.
  3. For those vignettes rated 1 (Definitely not buy), there is no incentive to get the respondent to change her or his mind. 63% of the vignettes rated ‘1’ (definitely not buy) are associated with ‘no dealer concession can change my mind’.
  4. We see from the pattern of dealer concession an unexpected, somewhat paradoxical pattern. People who like something (as shown by their higher purchase intent ratings) also rate the vignette rating of price ‘higher’, viz., want a greater price concession from the dealer.

Step 7: Percent Respondents Choosing Definitely Buy When Offered a $100 dealer concession?

Each respondent profiled himself or herself on who the respondent is (e.g., male female), how the person shops (frugal vs. deal seeker vs. occasional splurger), and the importance of six different factors considered when purchasing a car. Three of them were information (consumer reports, rating by JD Power, word of mouth of friends). The other three were aspects of the car (fuel efficiency, safety, and service).

To review first, each respondent rated 48 different vignettes on a 9-point rating scale. The scale point ‘9’ was transformed to the value 100 to denote definitely buy. The remaining ratings, 1-8, were transformed to the value ‘0’ to denote ‘not definitely buy.’ In turn, the dealer concession scale (rating #2) was converted to the actual numbers. This set of transformations produces metric numbers to be used in a regression analysis, the regressions each estimated at the level of the individual respondent. To prepare for the regression analysis, a vanishingly small random number (<10-5) was added to each transformed number to ensure a minimum level of variation for regression, but at the same time a level that would not affect the coefficients of the regression model.

The final analysis was to estimate the relation between definitely buy vs. concession price. The equation was: (Definitely Buy) = k1 (Dealer Price Concession). The coefficient k1 tells us the amount of Percent definitely buy given a $100 dollars of dealer price concession.

The equation was estimated for each respondent. Each respondent generates a different value of k1. Figure 3 shows the distribution of individual coefficients, . Here is where the 100$ goes the further, keeping in mind that we are looking at the distribution for a subgroup of people. The groups which are likely to be most responsive to offers are: Females, Deal Seekers, Readers of Consumer Reports, Prize Fuel Efficiency, Prize Safety.

fig 3

Figure 3: Distribution of a person’s Definitely Buy (TopP1) votes gained when a dealer gives a monthly price concession of $100. Each filled circle is corresponds to a respondent. Each key group of 12 key groups comprises a separate analysis. The abscissa percentages (0-10% additional definitely buy ratings).

Step 8 – The Effect of Repeated Exposures to Offers across the 48 Evaluations

One of the structural foundations of Mind Genomics is that each respondent is to be exposed to the right combination of vignettes, that ‘right combination’ structured by the underlying experimental design. Depending upon the specific design, the Mind Genomics study might comprise as many as 60 vignettes evaluated by a respondent (the 4×9 design, 4 questions, 9 answers or elements), or 48 vignettes (the 6×6 design used here), or 24 vignettes (the 4×4 design). Since 2019 the 4×4 design has been used increasingly frequently, the reason being the practical goal of making the respondent’s task easier. The last three years have witnessed massive oversampling by those parties who want who wants ‘feedback’ on services, and so forth.)

As respondents move through their 48 ratings, do the respondents change their criteria? It is impossible to answer this question by the simple method of repeating the same stimulus again and again, because this strategy to answer the question would entirely disrupt the Mind Genomics protocol. The respondent would either assign the same rating, or more likely assign the same rating and soon terminate the experiment with irritation.

Recognizing that each respondent evaluates a unique set of vignettes, another way we can answer question about changing criterion looks at averages at each test point, averages computed across all the respondents. For the study here we divided the vignettes into eight sequences of six vignettes each, defined as vignettes 1-6, 7-12,… 43-48. Within a single sequence we average the ratings for question #1 (purchase intent), and then average the ratings for question #2 (amount of a dealer concession to get the respondent to say ‘buy’). Thus, each respondent generates 16 new numbers, rather than 96. We then plot the average rating of purchase and concession on separate graphs, side by side, to show how the average rating changes as respondents moves through the valuations.

Figure 4 show these scatterplots of order x rating, for the total panel, and for respondents divided by WHO they are (left panel) and by what they say is most important. The ordinate is labelled ‘new order’ to show that it comprises averages across sets of six vignettes.

fig 4

Figure 4: How purchase intent (left scatterplot and desired prices concession from dealer (right scatterplot) change as the evaluation of the 48 vignettes proceed. Each point is the average of 6 sequential ratings (viz., vignettes 1-6, 7-12, 13-18, etc.). The groups at the left are standard geo-demographics. The groups at the right are those who feel that the feature or benefit is extremely important.

For the most part, the curves are parallel. The key departures are:

  1. Most of the curves show decreasing interest in purchase with repeated exposure, and decreasing magnitude of desired dealer concession with repeated exposure
  2. With repeated exposures, high income respondents defy the pattern, and show a flatter slope for dealer concession versus
  3. Those who say brand is most important show no reduction in purchase intent with increasing exposure, whereas every other group does show the drop in purchase intent with repeated exposure.
  4. Those who say that warranty period is the most important show a strange pattern, of increasing purchase and increase requested dealer concession.

Step 9 – How Messages Drive Rating for Total Panel and Pairs of and Emergent Mind-sets

Our final analysis goes deeply into the messaging. A key benefit of Mind Genomics is the ability to estimate the power of individual messages, even without instructing the respondent to provide a judgment of how impactful each message might be. It is likely that the respondent would have an idea of what is very important, such as safety, price, warranty, etc., or at least the industry, its marketers and its researchers, as well as the advertising agencies would like to believe. Whether one is really cognizant of what is important, including the respondent herself or himself, remains an ongoing issue, not solved even after a century.

The benefits of Mind Genomics emerge when we consider that important need not be stated, but can be statistically inferred by the ability of an element to ‘drive’ a response, whether the response be the rating of interest in buying the car based on the vignette, or the dollar value of dealer concession that the element would command. We assume that in the case of DEF BUY, a high value associated with the element means that the element is a powerful driver of purchase. In contrast, in the caste of PRICE, we assume that a high value associated with the element means that if the message were to include that element, the dealer better be ready to give a bigger concession. In other words, with DEF BUY, bigger is better; with PRICE smaller is better.

Our final analyses relate the presence/absence of the 36 elements to Top1, at the level of the individual respondent: DEF BUY = k1(A1) + k2(A2) … k36(F6). Each of our 63 respondents generates an individual equation, made possible by the underlying experimental design associated with the data of each separate respondent. Unliked previous studies which included an additive constant, the individual-level (and subsequent group-level) modeling does not include an additive constant. The decision to not estimate the constant was to be able to compare estimated coefficients for DEF BUY, with estimated coefficients for PRICE. To do so, we run the same type of linear modeling for price versus elements, first at the level of the individual, and then at the level of the group.

The starting database for each variable (DEF BUY, Price, respectively) comprised 63 rows of data, one row per respondent. For each dependent variable, in turn, a cluster analysis divided the 63 respondents into two groups, based upon the pattern of coefficients. The clustering, k-means clustering [10], used the terms (1-Pearson correlation) to estimate the ‘distance between every pair of individuals. The k-means clustering then puts the 63 individuals into two non-overlapping sets, attempting to make the individuals in a cluster be similar based on the pattern of their coefficients (low distance between people), and at the same time make the distance as high as possible between the centroids of the clusters, viz., the average coefficient for each of the 36 elements, in each of two clusters.

Clustering is purely formal and mathematical, attempting to satisfying mathematical criteria. Clustering is only a heuristic; many different methods exist for clustering, and many different measures of pairwise distance exist within each method. The choice of k-means clustering and the use of the distance measure (1-Pearson Correlation) is simply a choice, with many other choices equally valid. Good research practice extracts as few clusters as possible (parsimony) while at the same time ensures that that each cluster ‘tells a story’ (interpretability). Parsimony is very important; one could tell better and better stories with more and smaller clusters, but the power of clustering to reduce the data to a manageable set would decrease, and general insights would be obscured by a wall of numbers.

Once the clustering is complete, the clustering program assigns each respondent to one of the two clusters for DEF BUY (called Mind-Set 1 and Mind-Set 2, respectively). The second run of the clustering program, based on Price, assigns the same respondents to one of the two other cluster for PRICE (called Mind-Set 3 and Mind-Set 4, respectively).

Table 5A shows the total panel and MS1, MS2, two emergent mind-sets (clusters) for DEF BUY. Table 5B shows the total panel and MS3, MS4, two other emergent mind-sets for price. All coefficients are shown for Total Panel, both strong performer, and weak performer alike. For the mind-sets, however, weak coefficients are simply deleted to make the patterns emerge more clearly. We call Table 5A homo emotionalis, because we consider the respondents to assign their ratings based upon their inner feelings about buying. We call Table 5B homo economicus, because the concession data invokes economics, and a presumably more rational way of thinking.

Table 5A: Clustering based on DEF BUY coefficients (purchase intent; homo emotionalis). Elements sorted by coefficients for MS1 and then MS2

table 5a

Table 5B: Clustering based on Price Coefficients (homo emotionalis). Elements sorted by coefficients for MS3 and then MS4

table 5b

DEF BUY MS1 – Focus on car;

DEF BUY MS2 -Focus on driver and situation

PRICE MS3 – Focus on the driving feeling of good product, good experience, good interaction with dealer;

PRICE MS4 – Responds to deferential dealer, and boast-worthy car.

The clustering approach, doable as a short intervention in the marketing process, ahead of the messaging efforts, enables the company to increase the likely fit between the buyer and the salesperson. The potential exists for developing a knowledge-base of messaging (viz., a ‘wiki’ of the mind) for the topic of sales negotiations [11]. The results shown here suggest that such a wiki could be created rapidly, inexpensively, and scaled across different topics in the automobile category, and across countries. Simply knowing that people are different, and having a sense of ‘what works’ in the negotiation, available both to buyers and sellers, might produce a new dynamic in the world of marketing and sales.

An Update on the Purchasing of Cars – Changes Occurring Since the Study was Run

The authors wish to note that the data analyzed for this study were collected prior to the coronavirus pandemic, which began in March 2020. During the pandemic and up to the time of publication, lack of critical computer chips, a decline in new supply, and high demand for both new and used vehicles conspired to create a temporary situation where demand is outstripping supply. With vehicles of any type scarce, pricing for any car is at historic levels. Recent used cars, for example, are selling for prices at or near their original selling price, and new cars are being sold for premiums over MSRP. For these reasons, our findings should be seen as reflecting the pre-pandemic market. We expect that after the shortages ease, the market will return to its historical dynamics and that our findings will be hold.

Design for an ‘Updatable’ Mind Wiki of the World of Automobile Purchasing

We might say that Mind Genomics is a disciplined hypothesis-generating method, which even if it does not emerge with hypotheses about the way a specific part of the ‘world works,’ nonetheless provides a solid, archival database of the world of the mind, for a common behavior, in a known society, at a defined time, under specific circumstances. The fact that these Mind Genomics studies are easy to do, inexpensive, rapid, makes the creation of a database of the mind, a ‘Wiki of the mind of everyday situations’ well in the research of virtually every serious researcher.

What might this wiki look like, what would be its time and cost to develop, but most of all, what might this wiki add to the knowledge of people? If we move away from the world of the hypothetico deductive, and move to the systematic collection of data, such as the features of a KIA, we might lay out the wiki as follows:

  1. Basic design of a simple study = 4 questions, 4 answer per question, one rating scale (relevant for the situation)
  2. Number of situations =7 (e.g., thinking about a car, searching for information about a car, visiting a dealer, sitting down with the dealer, reading information about cars, closing the deal, specifying the financial arrangement, specifying service for after-purchase). For each situation, an in-depth set of say the 16 elements
  3. Number of brands = 10 (for each brand the same information, but the study is totally brand specific, including a ‘no brand at all’ as a brand)
  4. Number of countries = 10 (study is replicated the precise same way in each of 10 different countries, of course with the same car brand, or matching car brand if necessary)
  5. Number of respondents per study = 100
  6. Estimated time using Mind Genomics (BimiLeap.com) = six months (assuming team of individuals do the studies)
  7. Published costs (assume easy to find respondents) – $6/respondent, or $600/study
  8. Number of studies and cost per country – 70 studies x $600 = $42,000
  9. Number of countries – 10 or 700 studies x $600 = $420,00 for the entire wiki (plus time). The number of respondents can be increased by half to 150 for an additional $210,00

Discussion and Conclusions

Mind Genomics provides a tool by which to study the psychology of the everyday, in a way that might be called ‘from the inside out.’ The different analyses presented here are meant as a vade mecum, a guide to what might be learned in a simple Mind Genomics cartography. The cartography is exactly what it says, the act of mapping. There is no hypothesis testing in a Mind Genomics study, at least no formal hypothesis testing. Rather the study, indeed the experiment, is set up to observe everyday behavior, but in a situation where one can easily uncover relationships among behaviors and link behavior (or least verbal judgments) to the nature of the test stimuli [12,13].

With the foregoing as a post-script, what then can we say we have learned, or more profoundly, what are the types of information that Mind Genomics has provided, and which allow us to claim it as a valid method for science? It is certainly not in the traditional of the hypothetico-deductive system, which observes nature, creates a hypothesis about what might be happening, sets up the experiment, and through the experiment confirms or disconfirms that hypothesis. The hypothetico-deductive system is the most prevalent, popular way to advance science, building one block at time, fitting that block into the ‘wall of knowledge’, and creating an understanding of the world. The foregoing is hypothesis-testing.

When we look at the sequence of analyses presented here, we might see a different pattern. The pattern would not be one of offering hypotheses about the way the world works, even the world of automobile negotiation. We might create an experiment on negotiation to prove a point, such as the conjecture that a person who is ready to say YES wants more of a price concession than a person who is not ready to say yes. That would be the hypothesis, perhaps buttressed by reasons ‘why’.

References

  1. Beenen G, Barbuto Jr, J.E (2014) Let’s make a deal: A dynamic exercise for practicing negotiation skills. Journal of Education for Business 89: 149-155.
  2. Page D, Mukherjee A (2007) Promoting critical-thinking skills by using negotiation exercises. Journal of Education for Business 82: 251-257.
  3. Huang SL, Lin FR (2007). The design and evaluation of an intelligent sales agent for online persuasion and negotiation. Electronic Commerce Research and Applications 6: 285-296.
  4. Wu WY, Liao, YK, Chatwuthikrai A (2014) Applying conjoint analysis to evaluate consumer preferences toward subcompact cars. Expert Systems with Applications 41: 2782-2792.
  5. Kolvenbach C, Krieg S, Felten C (2003) Evaluating brand value A conjoint measurement application for the automotive industry. Conjoint Measurement Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. pp: 523-540.
  6. Gofman A (2011) Consumer driven innovation in website design: Structured experimentation in landing page optimization. International Journal of Technology Marketing 6: 72-84.
  7. Gofman A, Moskowitz HR, Mets T (2011). Marketing museums and exhibitions: What drives the interest of young people. Journal of Hospitality Marketing & Management 20: 601-618.
  8. Moskowitz HR, Gere A (2020) Selling to the ‘mind’ of the insurance prospect: A Mind Genomics cartography of insurance for home project contracts.
  9. Moskowitz HR, Gofman A (2007) Selling Blue Elephants: How to Make Great Products that People Want Before They Even Know They Want Them. Pearson Education.
  10. Likas A, Vlassis N, Verbeek JJ (2003) The global k-means clustering algorithm. Pattern Recognition 36: 451-461.
  11. Gofman A, Moskowitz HR (2010B) Improving customers targeting with short intervention testing. International Journal of Innovation Management 14: 435-448.
  12. Moskowitz H, Baum E, Rappaport S, Gere A. (2020) Estimated stock price based on company communications: Mind Genomics and Cognitive Economics as knowledge-creations tools for Behavioral Finance.
  13. Gofman A, Moskowitz H (2010A) Isomorphic permuted experimental designs and their application in conjoint analysis. Journal of Sensory Studies 25: 127-145.
fig 1b

The Mind of the Reader: Mind Genomics Cartographies of E-Readers versus ‘New’ Magazines

DOI: 10.31038/PSYJ.2022414

Abstract

In two separate experiments, groups of 50 respondents evaluated vignettes comprising systematically varied combinations of elements, experiment 1 dealing with the content of magazines, experiment 2 dealing with the features of an e-book reader. The vignettes were evaluated on 9-point Likert scales. Equations relating the presence or absence of the 36 elements in each experiment revealed unusually high coefficients. Clustering the patterns of coefficients revealed two mind-sets for the magazine contents, three mind-sets for the e-book reader. The mind-sets were not diametrically opposite, in the way the clustering would show for most products. Rather, the mind-sets suggested different patterns of preference, instead of preference/rejection. The argument is made that for many products with positive features, mind-set segmentation will reveal groups differing in the order of preference, with most features liked, rather than revealing the more typical finding that the mind-sets exhibit strong and opposite patterns of acceptance/rejection.

Introduction

The 21st century abounds in media, formerly just printed and broadcast, now electronic. Over the past decades readers have been introduced to the benefits of e-readers, virtually small computers created for the presentation of written material of many sorts, from books presented as searchable files, to pictures, presentations, to audio books, and the like. At the same time, the 21st century abounds in the printed word, on traditional media, such as newspapers, magazines, books, and so forth.

The focus of the two studies reported here was on the response to magazines (study #1), and to e-book readers (study #2), from the point of view of first- and second-year college students entering the world of higher education. The idea was to find out what features they thought would be relevant to people, and in turn, how people felt about combinations of these features in small vignettes (descriptions of offerings) and evaluated by respondents.

The academic literature as well as the business literature focuses on who reads magazines [1] and who uses e-book readers and the reasons [2-6]. The studies on media give one a sense of looking from the outside in, from the point of view of a third-party observer trying to make sense of a situation and reporting on the various features of situation. The observer is describing what she or he sees, and the potential organizing patterns which might be emerging, based what is observed, and the intuition of the observer. There is a sense of the ‘inside of the mind’, but not a feeling of immediacy, the type of immediacy when one reads a description of a product or service, and feels an excitement, a sense of ‘that’s just what I want.’

Rationales for the Two Studies Reported Here

The original studies were conducted as part of a set of studies at Queens College, (CUNY, NY), by students turned experimenters. The focus was on exploring the world of the everyday. One remarkable event emerged from the two studies. The study magazines were perceived by many of the respondents as fairly boring. Many of the elements were simply uninteresting, and in fact 22 of the respondents did not end up liking anything in that was being offered. In contrast, all the elements in the e book reader were considered interesting. Thus, it was of interest to compare the two.

The Mind Genomics process makes what was a typical questionnaire into an experiment. The questionnaire and the experiment both try to uncover what respondents feel to be important. The questionnaire works by presenting the respondent with a single set of stimuli, messages or elements presenting different ideas, and analyzing the ratings. The stimuli may be of the same type, presenting alternatives of a single idea, or the stimuli may be of entirely different categories of messages. In contrast, Mind Genomics can be said to an experiment in which the respondent rates combinations of messages, simulating a typical reality [7-9].

The approach is illustrated by a series of steps, each step comparing the two studies.

Step 1: Select the Topic, the Questions, and the Answers (elements)

Mind Genomics works with the experience of the everyday. It is critical, therefore, to select a delimited topic, and create a story framed by questions, in the manner that a story might be related by a person. The questions provide the structure to move the story forward. The story need not be the type of story with a plot. Rather, the story merely needs to provide a set of smaller ‘sub-topics’, aspects of the main topic, but aspects that can be dealt with by simple stand-alone phrases which ‘describe.’ The topic will be introduced to the respondent, so the respondent knows to what the test stimuli pertain. Th questions are never shown to the respondent, but simply serve as an aid to creating the answers, the elements, which will be shown to the respondent in test combinations.

Table 1A shows the structure of topic, questions, and answers for the magazine, something with which people were very familiar at the time of the study, in 2012. The topic was particularized to a subscription to the magazine, rather than interest in general in the magazine. The elements would be looked at in the light of a call to action, to subscribe or not to subscribe to the magazine.

Table 1A: Questions and answers (elements) for the magazine

table 1A(1)

table 1A(2)

Table 1B shows the structure of topic, questions, and answers for the E-reader. At the time of the study, E-readers were coming into vogue. Amazon had introduced the Amazon Kindle series, E-book readers, so the product idea was becoming better known. Technology was evolving quickly. The focus of the study was features and capabilities of the product.

Table 1B: Questions and answers (elements) for the E-Book Reader.

table 1b(1)

table 1b(2)

Allowing people to collaborate, especially students who are as yet unfettered by the cynicism of adults, generates ideas which run the gamut. The elements shown in Tables 1A and 1B emerged from students, not from professional copyrighters, not from professional ‘creatives’ whose job it is to come up with winning ideas. The Mind Genomics system encourages the exploration of new ideas, often ideas in the mind of young people. It will be interesting to measure how well these ideas perform. they are certainly different from many of the tried-and-true ideas proffered as the output of professionally moderated creative session. The performance will be measured empirically below

Step 2: Combine the Elements into Short, Easy to Read Vignettes, Using Experimental Design

Mind Traditional efforts to teach the ‘scientific method’ are founded on the belief that a variable must be isolated, and studied, but only after all of the possible variation, the ‘noise’ around the variable has been eliminated, either by suppressing the noise (testing the element by itself i the simplest form), and/or by averaging out the noise (e.g., testing with dozens or even hundreds of people, so that the individual variation averages out).

Mind Genomics was founded on the basic tenet judgment data of real-world stimuli should be done in a way which best resembles the real world, namely mixtures.,,, namely identify the variables to be tested, combine them in a way which resembles th type of compound stimulus which one encounters in nature. By combining the different elements in structured way, using an experimental design, which mixes and matches the different independent variable, one presents the respondents with more realistic test stimuli. We encounter mixtures all the time and react to them. Thus, the mixtures tested by the respondents are more similar to what the person would face. The key difference is that the experimental design permits the research to deconstruct the reaction to this ‘combination’ into the contributions of the components, the variables of interest.

The requirements for a Mind Genomics experimental design are that the elements should appear equally often, that the vignettes be ‘incomplete’ (viz., some vignettes are absent elements or answers from a question), that the elements be statistically independent of each other, and the experimental design be valid down to a base size of one respondent. Finally, the experimental design be permutable, so that by permuting elements or answers in a single question new combinations emerge, based upon the same design structure [10].

It is important to note that with the foregoing approach, each respondent evaluates a different set of 48 vignettes, prescribed by the underlying experimental design (called the 6×6 design; six questions, six answers or elements per question). With 50 or so respondents, there are 50×48 or 2400 vignettes evaluated by the respondents, most of which are different from each other. In that way the Mind Genomics system is metaphorically like the MRI machine, which takes pictures of the same tissue from different angles and combines these pictures by computer to arrive at a single 3-dimensional image of the underlying tissue.

The output of the experimental design appears in Figure 1A, showing a vignette for the magazine, and Figure 1B showing a vignette for the e-book reader.

fig 1a

Figure 1A: Example of a four-element vignette for the magazine study

fig 1b

Figure 1B: Example of a 3-element vignette for the e-book reader

Step 3: Execute the Mind Genomics Study on the Internet

Beginning in the late 1990’s, a great deal of consumer research migrated to the web, to the internet. Companies found that the data generated by web-based interviews seemed to be just as valid as data generated by in-person interviews and mailed-out paper questionnaires. Establishing web-interviews as a valid way, and indeed far less expensive way, to obtain data gave a boost to interviews which need technology embedded in their backbone. Min Genomics is one of the approaches which proposed, because each respondent was to evaluate a unique set of elements. The only practical way was to have a computer combine the elements in ‘real time’, following the underlying 3expeirmental design. The process became streamlined over time. The respondent would log in, following a link, be presented with an orientation screen, and then a set of systematically varied combinations, created ‘in real time’, at the site of the respondent’s computer.

Figure 2A shows the orientation screen for the magazine study, Figure 2B shows the orientation screen for the e-reader study. The respondents were recruited by an online panel provider, Turk Prime, Inc. which provided respondents in the United States. The compensation to the respondents was set by Turk Prime, Inc. as part of their internal policies. These policies as well as the identification of the respondents, were not available through the service. The only guarantee was that the respondents were vetted by Open Venue Ltd., part of their panel.

fig 2a

Figure 2A: Orientation for the magazine study

fig 2b

Figure 2B: Orientation screen for the e-reader study

Figures 2A and 2B show the orientation screen. Very little information is given regarding the purpose of the study, and the rationale for selecting the elements. Just the topic is given. The rest of the screen provides information about the number of question (two), and the type (scalar, Likert Scale for Question 1, presented here; selection of emotion for each vignette, not presented here).

The orientation screen goes out of its way to reassure the respondent that all the screens are different from each other, and that the study will take 10-15 minutes. These two reassurances were put in after the early experience on the Internet, when respondents kept saying upon exist that the concepts they evaluated seemed to have many repeats (not possible with the design), and that they wanted to know how long the interview would be. Rather than giving a precise time, it was deemed better to give them a reasonable range of 10-15 minutes. Most respondents finished earlier.

Observations of respondents doing these types of studies in a central location revealed that the respondents often begin by trying to ‘outsmart’ the research, trying to figure out the appropriate answer. With single elements rated, this outsmarting or gaming the system is possible. With 48 different combinations, however, it is impossible for the respondent to game the system. The respondent may begin with an effort to outsmart the system, but almost universally the respondent relaxes, and simply answers in what the respondent feels is an uninterest way, barely paying attention. That tis precisely the right state for the respondent, because in that state the answers come from the heart, without being edited to be politically correct.

Step 4 – Acquire the Data and Prepare It for Analysis

Each respondent evaluated 48 difeferent vignettes, consturcted according to an experimental deesign. The respondent first rated the vignette in terms of interest using a 9-point category or Likert Scale (subscribe fo the magazine, purchase for the e-book reader). The respondent then ratedthe vignette in terms of emotion experience after reading the vignette. Those data are not presented here.

The foundations of Mind Genomics lie in the fields of experimental psychology, consumer research, and statisitics, respectively. Experimental psychologists do not usually convert the data from the Likert Scales, preferring the granularity, which allows statistical analysis to uncover more statically significant effects using tests of difference. In contrast,, users of Mind Genomics data, typically managers want to use the data for decision making (e.g., use/not use; go/don’t go). It is important for them to interpret the data to make their decision. All too often, the manager presented with averages across people from a projecting using Likert Scalesw will begin the interaction by asking a question like ‘what does a 6.9 average on the rating scale ‘mean’, and what should i do?’

The tradition in consumer research and in Mind Genomics, followed here, transforms the Likert sale to a two point scale, 0 and 1 or 0 and 100, repectively. They two transformed scales, 0-1, 0-100, are different expessions of the same data, but present the data either with decimals (0-1), or without decimals (0-100), We chose the 0/100 tranfomration,  Ratings of 1-6 were coded 0, ratings of 7-9 were coded 100, and a vanishingly small random number (<105) was added to make sure the transformed rating would always have variation acfrosss the 48 vignettes for a single respondent. This prophylatic measure ensure that one could use regression modeling at the level of the individual respondent, even in those cases when the respondent confined the ratings to one region, viz., 1-6 or 7-9 respectively.

Step 5 – Create Individual Level Models, through Regression, Relating the Presence/Absence of the Elements to the Transformed Response

It is at Step 5 that the real analysis begins, an analysis which is virtually mechanical in nature, yet which repeatedly shows how the consumer mind makes decisions. The data were prepared in at Step 4. Step 5 uses OLS (ordinary least squares) multiple regression to relate the presence/absence of the 36 elements to the transformed rating. The equation is expressed as:

Binary Transformed Rating = k0 + k1(A1) + k2(A2)….k36(F6)

For those respondents whose ratings were all between 1 and 6, the coefficients were all near 0 an the additive constant was around 0 as well. For those respondents whose rating whose ratings were all between 7 and 9, the coefficients again were all near 0, and the addiive consatn was around 100. Out of 52 respondents, 22 respondent showed this pattern for magazine, none showed this pattern for e-book reader. The data from these 22 respondents were eliminated from the database, leaving only respondents who showed variation in their transformed binary response.

Step 6 – Cluster the Respondents into Either Two Groups (Magazine) or Three Groups (e-Book Reader)

Step 6 attempts to divide the respondents in a study into clusters, doing so that the the respondents in a clusters are ‘similar’ to each other, while at the same time the pattern of the 36 averages of the coefficients are very different between two clusters or very different across three clsuters. The process can be done very easily using k-means clustering [11]. The clustering program returns with the assignment of each respondent to exactly one of the two clusters (for magazines), or one of the three clusters (for e-book readers). Afterwards, run one equation for all the respondents in a study, and two separate equations for all respondents in each of the two mind-sets (magazine), three separate eqations for all respondents in each of the three mind-sets (e-book reader).

The clustering procedures are mathematics-based, attempting to bring some definable order into what might otherwise be a blooming, buzzing confusion, in the words of noted Harvard psychologist, William James. The clusters themselves do not have any concrete reality, but simply represent intuitively reasonable ways to divide objects. Clustering can be done on anything, as long as the measure(s) are comparable across the different objects.

When we look at the clusters, recognizing that we are dealing with a mathematically based system, our judgment should be based on at least two criteria. The first criterion is parsimony. We know that we will get perfect clustering if each of our respondents becomes her or his own cluster. That would defeat the purpose. The idea is to create as few clusters as possible, to be as parsimonius as possible, even at the cost of some ‘noise’ in the system which makes the clustering far less than perfect. Thus, the first rule is the fewer the number of clusters, the better. The second criterion is interpretability, that the clusters should each tell a story. One may want the story to be tight, meaning more clusters, and less parsimony. Or one may allow the story to be less tight, with more open issues, but with more parsimony, viz., fewer clusters. It is always a trade-off; more parsimony versus more interpretability. There is no right answer. In this study, the effort will be towards parsimony, given the range of possible elements that can fit either in a magazine or an e-book reader [12].

One last issues remains to be mentioned. That issue the nature of the variables (elements) considered in the clustering. The traditional approach in Mind Genomics has been to use the coefficients of all of the elements, but not to use the additive constant. There is always the potential that the clustering might be unduly affected by the nature of the elements selected. With 36 elements, one would hope that the elements deal with different aspects in equal ways. But what happens, for example, if most of the elements deal with usage, and only a few elements deal with product features? Would that generate the same clusters were the elements to be configured differently, with only a few elements dealing with usage, and most elements dealing with product features? In other words, is the mind-set segmentation affected by the distribution of the topics dealt with in the study?

To answer the foregoing question, the nature of the variables used in clustering, each study was analyzed twice, AFTER the respondents with all coefficients around the value 0 were eliminated from the data. The first clustering was done with the original 36 coefficients. Both studies comprised featured six sets of six elements each, so the clustering was similar.

The second analysis reduced the dimensionality of the 36 elements using principal components factor analysis [13]. Even though the 36 elements were statistically independent of each other by design, the pattern of 36 cofficients shows substantial co-variations, simply because the elements were similar, generated similar patterns. The PCA isolated eight factors for the magazine subscription, and 15 factors for the e-book reader. The nature of the factors is not important. Rather, the factors are statistically independent of each other. The factors were rotated by Quartimax to make the data matrix as simple as possible. Each respondent was then located in the 8-dimensional factor space for the magazine, or the 15-dimensional factor space for the e-book reader. After the factor spaces were creatd, the clustering was done again, with two mind-sets extracted for the magazine

Step 7: Interpreting the Results – Magazine

Table 2A shows the results for the magazine based upon the clustering into two groups. Three groups did not produce any clearer result. The “Total Panel” data shows all coeficients, positive and negative. For these results, we show only the very strong positive coefficients, 15 or higher.

Table 2A: Coefficients for the magazine, for total and two mind-sets, based on using all 36 elements for clustering.

table 2a(1)

table 2a(2)

The three groups, Total, Mind-Set 1 and Mind-Set 2 generate similar, low values for the additive constant, 16-20. The additive constant is the conditional probability of a person wanting to subscribe to the magazine in the absence of elements. The underlying experimental design ensured that each vignette would comprise 3-4 elements, never zero elements. The additive constant is a convenient parameter, estimating the intercept, the likely score in terms of ‘top 3’ that would be obtained in the impossible case of a vignette with no elements.

Table 2B shows the same type of analysis, this time based on the factors of the respondents on eight independent factors (dimensions), rather than on 36 elements.Comparing the two types of segmentation, first based on all 36 elements and the second based on the elements after factor analysis, it is clear the the clustering generates clearer results when the original data is used, confirming the insights of others focused on thepractical uses, opportunities, and pitfalls encountred in clustering [14,15]. In reality, Table 2A, based on all 36 elements, suggests one major mind-set, those interested in experiences. The other mind-set barely enters the picture, only with one element, which scores near the bottom cutoff. Table 2B shows the same pattern as well [16].

Table 2B: Coefficients for the magazine, for total and two mind-sets, based on using all eight factors for clustering, factors derived from the 36 elements.

table 2b(1)

table 2b(2)

The final notworthy finding in this study of magazine content is the unusually large number of very strong elements, nine of thirty-six, one quarter, having coefficients of +15 or higher. This is an unusual finding, and may well be attributed to the creative abilities of younger people, ages 17-23, focusing on what is important to them. What is important is the specific, the concrete, the focused feature, not the grand abstraction that a marketer or ‘creative’ in an agency would propose as a coherent, summarizing theme. The responents want specifics.

Step 8: Interpreting the Results – E-Book Readers

Table 3A shows the results for the E-book reader based upon the clustering into three groups. Unlike the findings for the magazine, the three mind-sets for the E-Book Reader made sense. Once again we see low additive constants. When we divide the respondents into mind-sets based either upon the original 36 elements or upon the 15 factors emerging, we see two very low additive constants, and low additive constant around 27.

Table 3A: Coefficients for the magazine, for total and three mind-sets, based on using all 36 elements for clustering.

table 3a(1)

table 3a(2)

Table 3B: Coefficients for the magazine, for total and three mind-sets, based on using all 15 factors for clustering, factors derived from the 36 elements.

table 3b(1)

table 3b(2)

Like the results for magazines in Tables 2A and 2B, we find that some coefficients are quite high, some of the highest ever recorded for a Mind Genomics study. The hypothesis proferred in the previous section may still hold, viz., that having young, colleage-age students, create the elements is the secret to strong performing elements. It may be that the students think in a more concrete, feature-oriented way, a way which generates a great deal more interest than professional creatives who may think of ‘grand solutions’, rather than of specific features. It may also be that the topic of e-book readers is by its nature simply far more interesting, and au courant

Discussion and Conclusion

Why High Coefficients?

The most surprising outcome from these two studies is the emergence of elements with exceptionally high coefficients. The studies were run in 2012, a decade ago, but that does not provide an explanation for the strong positive coefficients. Hypotheses about in the absence of fact. We have only two examples. What are common about them is that the elements are provided by young people (ages 18-21) rather than by professionals, viz., the so-called highly paid ‘creatives’ in the marketing companies and advertising agencies. and the topics talk to presentations of information, capabilities given to the reader or the user That is, the elements are fundamentally ‘interesting’ to the reader, not just simply recitations of what is. There is a sense of ‘excitement’, perhaps because we are talking about items with clearly interesting, people-oriented features. There are no elements dealing with ‘good practices’, elements that might be necessary in an offering but elements which really do not convince.

The notion that the topic is interesting certainly has merit in the world of Mind Genomics. Most Mind Genomics studies deal with social or medical issues, issues that are not ‘interesting,’ nor issues that people would pay for. Social problem, medical problems are issues about which one gathers information. The elements in this study are used to excite a buyer to buy the product. There is no sense of elements put in because they are legally necessary, or for completeness as one of recommended best practices.

Polarized versus Non-polarized Mind-sets

As noted above, the unusually high coefficients emerging from the total panel for some elements , and the exceptionally high coefficients emerging several times from the separate mind-sets, suggest that we are dealing with a new type of preference pattern, not frequently seen in Mind Genomics, but one easy to recognize. We are dealing with what one might call the ‘pizza phenomenon’. Most people love pizza. It is the toppings which differentiate people. For most people it’s a matter of order of preference, which varies from person to person. The result is that the total panel generates strong liking of the pizza, with the differentiator being the rank order of preference of the topping. There are people who actively dislike certain toppings, but for the most part the mind-sets that would emerge from a study of pizza and those representing different rank orders of items already liked.

In contrast to the above, the pizza phenomenon, where the mind-sets are simply patterns of liking of the same elements, there are those situations where the person likes one element but hates another This pattern is very different from the pizza pattern. The pattern is more similar to the pattern of likes and dislikes of flavors. Flavors themselves strongly polarize people. Some people love a certain flavor, whereas others hate the flavor. One hears those words again and again.

Let’s move this analogizing to the topics of e-book readers and magazine subscriptions. For the most part the coefficients are positive. There are relatively few elements which are strongly negative. There are no moderately negative elements for the e-book reader. Here are the most negative elements for the magazine

C4      Sneak Previews of the upcoming year in music and entertainment          -6

A3      Executives read it . . Uneducated ones look at the pictures             -6

D5      Social network pages with up to the hour updates that can be discussed with friends      -7

A2      Rockers read it. Pop Stars read it.       -9

The patterns emerging for both the magazine (less so) and the e-book reader (more so) is that the creation of a product, especially one with electronic features (the e-book reader) is most likely to generate higher coefficients, than, for example a study on shopping for, using, or servicing the product.

Developing a Culture of Iteration

There is a culture in business which promotes experimentation, but does not prescribe what the experiment should be. The data presented here from students, rather than from experts, show a much greater ‘success’ in early stage experimentation. We see a great number of strong performing elements, yet many elements are still moderate performers. The results give hope that the number of strong positives can increase. With repeated efforts there should be more strong performing elements.

In business the process would be different. In most businesses the unspoken norm to ‘manage for appearances.’ That is, in business, people all too often manage each other, rather than managing for the best results. Bringing that observation to the world of Mind Genomics, the typical business approach would be to spend a long time preparing for the study, making sure that the elements are ‘just right’, and conducting the Mind Genomics experiment with several hundred people, to ensure that ‘the results are solid.’ This approach of ‘letting the perfect be the enemy of the good’ ends up generating one well-prepared Mind Genomics study. The effort is expended in the wrong way. The effort should be on iterating, with small Mind Genomics experiment, each with 50 respondents, each done in the space of no more than 24 hours. The study here, run by students, relative amateurs in the world of business, shows the power of ‘just doing it.

Appendix

The effort to create this system generated a patented approach (REF), available now world-wide, on an automated basis, for a reduced size (4 questions, 4 answers or elements). The system is essentially free, except for minor processing charges on a per respondent basis to defray the maintenance. The website is www.BimiLeap.com

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Proportion of High Risk Mothers Attending Antenatal Clinic (ANC), PGIMER, Chandigarh 2018-20

DOI: 10.31038/IJNM.2022311

Abstract

Introduction: Pregnancy with high risk conditions is threatening the life of the mother as well as fetus. Each year, globally 529,000 women and girls die due to complications associated with pregnancy. Most of the complications are preventable with preventive measures. So, all the pregnant mothers should be evaluated for the high risk factors. This study assessed the proportion of high risk mothers in Antenatal clinic OPD PGIMER Chandigarh.

Aim: To assess the proportion of high risk mothers.

Material and method: Pre-experimental design was used where total 200 antenatal mothers were enrolled by purposive sampling technique. Data were collected by using interview schedule in the period of July to December 2019. An assessment proforma were used for the assessment of antenatal mothers with high risk conditions regarding maternal and fetal outcome.

Results: Finding of the study shows that mean age of high risk women were 28.6 years of age, attained menarche at the age of 13 years of age. Majority (63%) of the mothers belongs to Hindu family. More than 60% of the high risk mothers were having Anemia followed by Hypothyroidism (57.5%), Gestational diabetes mellitus (28.5%), Gestational Hypertension (15%), Previous history of caesarean section (14.5%), Age ≥35 years (8.5%), Rh negative mothers (5.5%), Height <145 cm (3.5%).

Conclusion: It is concluded that highest percentage of Antenatal women (63%) were with anemia followed by 57.5% with Hypothyroidism.

Keywords

Gestational diabetes mellitus, Gestational hypertension, High risk mothers

Introduction

Pregnancy is an inimitable, stirring, and joyful time in a women’s life as it express the woman’s incredible, innovative and fostering powers while providing a link to the future. It brings a new sense to the thought of beauty and this time a woman cherishes with enormous joy and anticipation. The emotion of carrying in a little soul within in her is glorious. A baby fills a peace in the mother’s heart that she never knew was empty [1]. Each week of pregnancy brings with a new changes and thoughts that may require some explanations and hold up to the pregnant woman. It is the period during which a baby is in the mother’s womb for about 280 days. Progression of both physiological and psychological changes occur during pregnancy [2]. A pregnant women passes through period of pregnancy, labor and puerperium, it is important to provide antenatal, Intranatal and postnatal care. The year 2016 and 2030, is considered as the Sustainable Development Goals, where the target is to reduce MMR to less than 70 per 100 000 live births globally [7]. According to study, there is 20 -30% high risk pregnancies in India which leads to 75% of perinatal mortality and morbidity. So, for the reduction of maternal mortality, it is necessary to detect high risk pregnancy and their management in early stage [8]. High risk factors includes obstetric factors- Grand multipara, Age less than 18 years and more than 35 years, Height less than 145 cm, multipara with bad obstetric history like (loss of baby, cesarean section, Hypertension in previous pregnancy, recurrent premature labour and abortion, Intrauterine growth retardation), case of disproportion, Malpresentation, multiple pregnancy, obstetric complications includes hemorrhage during pregnancy (threatened abortion, Antepartum hemorrhage), pregnancy induced hypertension (Preeclampsia, eclampsia), high risk fetus (premature labor, RH incompatibility fetus, post maturity, intrauterine growth retarded fetus). Medical factors includes (anemia and malnutrition, cardiac diseases (pulmonary tuberculosis, hepatitis, syphilis, psychiatric disorders, thyroid disorders and others), social factors include unwed pregnancy, no or less than 3 antenatal checkup or low socioeconomic group. In western countries this incidence of high risk pregnancy comes to about one third in all the pregnancies. This incidence can be seen at least double numbers, because of anemia, under nutrition, poor social factors and parity [3]. Each pregnancy has three trimesters. First trimester is first 12 weeks of pregnancy, second trimester starts from 13 weeks to 28 weeks and third trimester starts from 29 weeks to 40 weeks of pregnancy. The first trimester is the most essential for the development of a fetus. A women’s body goes through many changes during the first 12 weeks of gestation. Body structure and organ systems of the baby develop during this period. Most miscarriages and birth defect can be seen during this period [4]. During 2nd trimester, nausea and vomiting usually resolve, there are fewer complications can occur like pregnancy induced hypertension, diabetes mellitus, Oligohydromnia, Polyhydromnia, anemia, cardiac diseases, abortion. During third trimester, various complications can arise like Gestational diabetes, preeclampsia, preterm labour, premature rupture of membrane, intrauterine growth retardation; malpresentation [5]. High risk pregnancy refers to pregnancy where complications are faced by the mother and her unborn child and also it will affect the life of both mother and baby. Nesbitt, 1969 scored high risk pregnancy under eight factors on initial history, physical and laboratory examinations at the time of booking. These factors were age of the mother, race and marital status, parity, past obstetric history (abortions premature, fetal death, neonatal death, and congenital anomaly), medical and obstetric history and nutrition (systemic illness, specific infections, and diabetes), Rh problem, social and economic history, emotional survey. Each factor was attached penalty points 0.5.10, 20, 30. The total score of all eight categories were subtracted from a potential ideal score of 100; the score lying at or below 70 was high risk and above 70 was low to moderate risk. The outcome of pregnancy on the point of abortion, premature birth, low birth weight, prenatal complication, labour complication, perinatal mortality, neonatal morbidity and poor outcome were identified with high percentage with high risk scores. However, this score did not include risks developed during ongoing pregnancy and delivery. Currently, comprehensive risk scoring is made on initial score, continuing pregnancy and labour risk score, postpartum, maternal and neonatal risk monitoring [3]. Pregnancy checkup is necessary for at least ten times in case of high risk pregnant women and five times in case of normal pregnancies [6]. Prenatal assessment and screening of high risk cases through antenatal assessment, review lab orders/investigations, obtaining Ultrasonography report, identification of high risk and follow up prevent the complication of high risk pregnancy.

Objective

To assess the prevalence of high risk mothers in Antenatal clinic OPD PGIMER Chandigarh.

Methodology

Study design was pre-experimental. Sample was selected by using purposive sampling technique. Data were collected by using interview schedule in the period of July to December 2019. Antenatal women with high risk conditions were approached during their clinical visit in antenatal clinic, outpatient department (OPD). women were informed about the aim of the study and written consent was obtained. A structured interview schedule was used to gather information regarding identification data. An assessment proforma were used for the assessment of antenatal mothers with high risk conditions regarding maternal and fetal outcome. Content validity of the tool and protocols was confirmed for the completeness, content and language clarity by the Guide, Co-guides and experts from National Institute Of Nursing Education (NINE), and Department Of Obstetrics And Gynecology. Ethical approval was taken from institute ethics committee, PGIMER, Chandigarh vide no. NK/5163/Msc/10. A written Informed consent was obtained from the participants. Data was analyzed using descriptive statistics.

Results

Table 1a depicts the Sociodemographic profile of antenatal women with high risk conditions. Majority of the women with high risk conditions were in age group of 26-30 years resulting in the mean age of 28.65 ± 4.28. Majority of antenatal mothers were educated up to secondary. More than 60% of the antenatal women were Hindu, belongs to joint family and lived in urban area. Most of the antenatal women were vegetarian and per capita income between Rs 3504-7007.

Table 1a: Sociodemographic profile of Antenatal mother with High risk conditions.

Variables

Antenatal mother with high risk conditions (N=200)

f (%)

Age(years)

20-25

26-30

31-34

≥35

 

51(26)

87(44)

45(22)

17(8)

Educational status

Primary

Secondary

Graduate

Postgraduate

 

7(3)

 92 (46)

 48(24)

 53(27)

Religion

Hindu

Muslim

Sikh

 

126(63.0)

9(4)

65(33)

Per capita income(Rs)

<1050

1051-2101

2102-3503

3504-7007

7008 and above

 

2 (1.0)

31 (15)

55(28)

60(30)

52(26)

Type of family

Nuclear

Joint

 

72(36.0)

128(64.0)

Habitat

Urban

Rural

 

126(63.0)

74(37.0)

Dietary habits

Vegetarian

Non vegetarian

 

155(77.5)

45 (22.5)

Age Mean ± SD=28.65 ± 4.28; Range=20-45.
Per capita income Mean ± SD =5514.75 ± 4133.48; Range=1000-25000.

Table 1b shows the menstrual and obstetric profile of antenatal mothers with high risk conditions. Majority of women attained menarche at the age of 13 years, having regular menstrual periods and duration of menstruation more than 3 days. Majority of the women had marriage between the age 18-27 years and 71.5% had duration of marriage ≤5 years. Majority of antenatal women were primigravida and had history of one live birth. 77% of the antenatal women were having gestation between 29-42 weeks and 23% were having gestation 13-28 weeks. 2 out of 200 antenatal women were having the history of Post partum haemorrhage (PPH) in previous pregnancy.

Table 1b: Menstrual and Obstetric profile of Antenatal mothers with High risk conditions.

Variables

Antenatal mother with high risk condition (N=200) f (%)

 Age at menarche (years)

12

13

14

 

 37 (18.5)

 153 (76.5)

 10 (5.0)

Menstrual pattern

Regular

Irregular

 

177(88.5)

23(11.5)

Duration of menstruation(days)

≤ 3 days

>3 days

 

 66(33.0)

 134(67)

Age of marriage (years)

<18

18-27

28-35

 

11 (5.5)

152(76.0)

37 (18.5)

Duration of marriage (years)

5

6-10

11-15

>15

 

143 (71.5)

40 (20.0)

12(6.0)

5(2.5)

Gravida

Primigravida

Multigravida

 

115(57.5)

85(42.5)

Live birth

1

2

 

34(17.0)

7(4)

Period of gestation

13-28 weeks

29-40 weeks

 

46(23.0)

154 (77.0)

Previous history of PPH

 2(1.0)

Age of marriage Mean ± S.D =23.98 ± 3.582; Range: 16-35.

Table 1c depicts clinical profile of antenatal women with high risk conditions. More than 50% of the antenatal mother had Hemoglobin level (Hb) less than 11 gm/dl and TSH level more than normal. Less than 8% of the antenatal women were Rh-ve, blood pressure more than 140/90 mm of hg, presence of albumin and ketone in urine. Only Three percent of the antenatal mother had HbA1c more than normal. Nearly one third of the antenatal women had fasting blood sugar level more than 95 mg/dl and post-prandial more than 126 mg/dl.. Further table, shows that 31 or less than 31 % having pylectesis, ventricular septal defect, ventriculomegaly, choroid plexus cyst, fetal growth restriction based on ultrasound finding.

Table 1c: Clinical profile of Antenatal mother with High risk conditions.

Variables

Antenatal mothers with high risk conditions (N=200)

 f (%)

Blood group

Rh +ve

Rh –ve

 

189(94.5)

11(5.5)

Blood pressure

systolic

<140 mm of hg

>140 mm of hg

Diastolic

<90 mm of hg

>9 0mm of hg

 

 

195(97.5)

5(2.5)

 

186(93)

14(7)

Hb%

< 11 gm /dl

>11 gm/dl

 

126(63.0)

 74(37.0)

Blood sugar level

FBS(<95 mg/dl)

(≥95 mg/dl)

PPBS (<126 mg/dl)

(≥126 mg/dl)

HbAIc

Normal(<5.6)

Abnormal (≥5.6)

not done

 

140(70)

60(30)

 151(75.5)

49(24.5)

 

 51(25.5)

6(3.0)

143(71.5)

Urine testing

Presence of albumin

Presence of ketone

 

4(2.0) 10(5.0)

TSH level

Normal

abnormal

 

40(35.0)

75(65.0)

 Based on ultrasound findings N=13

Ventriculomegaly

2 (15)

Ventricular septum defect

1 (8)

Hydronephrosis

2 (15)

Choroid plexus cyst

3 (23)

Pylectesis

4 (31)

Fetal growth restriction and oligohydromnias

1 (8)

Table 2 illustrates the proportion of antenatal mother with high risk conditions. 63% of antenatal women had Anaemia followed by Hypothyroidism (57.5%), previous history of abortion (30%), Gestational diabetes mellitus (28.5%), Gestational Hypertension (15%), Previous history of caesarean section (14.5%), Age ≥35 years (8.5%), Rh negative mothers (5.5%), previous history of preterm baby (5%), Height <145 cm (3.5%), Oligohyramnios (3%), placenta previa (2%), Polyhydramnios (1%).

Table 2: Proportion of antenatal mother with high risk conditions.

Variables

Antenatal mother with high risk conditions (N=200)

f (%)

Height <145 cm

 7 (3.5)

Age ≥35 years

 17(8.5)

Rh-ve mothers

 11(5.5)

Previous history of pre-term baby

10 (5.0)

Previous history of abortion

60(30.0)

Previous history of LSCS

29(14.5)

Anaemia

126 (63.0)

Gestational Hypertension

30(15.0)

Gestational diabetes mellitus

57 (28.5)

Hypothyroidism

115(57.5)

Placenta previa

4 (2.0)

Oligohydromnia

5(3)

Polyhydromnia

1 (1)

Gestational diabetes mellitus with Anaemia

21(10.5)

Hypothyroidism with GDM with Anaemia

 12(6)

Hypothyroidism with Polyhydromnia with Anaemia

1(.5)

Hypertension with Placenta previa

1(0.5)

Hypertension with Anaemia

8(4)

Hypothyroidism with Anaemia

41(20.5)

Hypothyroidism with Gestational hypertension with Anaemia

3(1.5)

Hypothyroidism with Gestational hypertension

1(0.5)

Hypothyroidism with Oligohydromnias with Anaemia

1(0.5)

Hypertension with oligohydromnias

1(0.5)

Hypothyroidism with Gestational diabetes mellitus

5(2.5)

Hypothyroidism with Gestational hypertension with GDM

3(1.5)

Hypothyroidism with GDM with Gestational hypertension with Placenta previa with Anaemia

1(0.5)

Hypothyroidism with GDM with Gestational hypertension+Anemia

4(2)

Gestational Hypertension with oligohydromnias with Placenta previa with anaemia

1(0.5)

*Number is more because of more than one high risk conditions.

Discussion

High risk pregnancy can affect the health of mother or baby and complications are faced by the mother and her unborn child. If initially detection and effective management of high risk pregnancy can considerably be helpful for the reduction of maternal and neonatal mortality and morbidity rate. Present study was conducted with the objective to assess the proportion of high risk mothers. Two hundred women who fulfilled the inclusion criteria were chosen as subjects from Antenatal OPD, Obstetrics and Gynecology department of PGIMER, Chandigarh. The study was conducted from the month of July to august 2019. The collected data was analyzed using SPSS version 2.0, descriptive statistics were used for analyzing the data. Present study exhibit that 30% of the mother had history of abortion, history of caesarean section (14.5%) and 8.5% were elderly gravida. Findings are almost similar with the study conducted by Jaideep et al. [7], Kambaba Nazi Michel [8] found high risk mothers with history of abortion (27%), age ≥35 years (5.5%) and history of caesarean section (13.6%). They recommended that carefully monitoring is important for high risk women to avoid the occurrence of maternal mortality. Our study Shows that majority of the high risk mothers were having Anemia followed by Hypothyroidism, Gestational diabetes mellitus, Gestational Hypertension, Previous history of cesarian section, Age ≥35 years, Rh negative mothers, Height <145 cm. Kabamba Nzaji Michel et al. found that majority of high risk factors are history of maternal infection (18.5%), unexplained fetal or neonatal death antecedent (12.4%) [8]. Jaideep et al. also found the high risk factors. 59.8% were having bad obstetric history, 4% were having pregnancy induced hypertension, 3.2% were RH negative [7].

References

  1. Introduction to Pregnancy – Pregnancy [Internet]. [cited 2019 Feb 3].
  2. High-risk pregnancy. In: Wikipedia [Internet]. 2019 [cited 2019 Feb 3].
  3. Dawn CS (1986) Rule of Ten MCH care and education, uterine maturity score, textbook of obstetrics current edition Calcutta.
  4. What are symptoms of complications during the first trimester of pregnancy? | 1st Trimester Of Pregnancy [Internet]. Sharecare. [cited 2019 Feb 10].
  5. The Second Trimester of Pregnancy: Complications [Internet]. [cited 2019 Feb 10].
  6. Maternal mortality [Internet]. [cited 2019 Feb 6].
  7. Jaideep KC, Prashant D, Girija A (2017) Prevalence of high risk among pregnant women attending antenatal clinic in rural field practice area of Jawaharlal Nehru Medical College, Belgavi, Karnataka, India. International Journal of Community Medicine And Public Health. 28: 1257-1259.
  8. Michel KN, Ilunga BC, Astrid KM, Blaise IK, Mariette KK, et al. (2016) Epidemiological Profile of High-Risk Pregnancies in Lubumbashi: Case of the Provincial Hospital Janson Sendwe. Open Access Library Journal. 3:1.

Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Study from India

DOI: 10.31038/PSYJ.2022413

Abstract

A study was carried out in India considering the consequences, which could have been faced by people due to the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic 2020. Data collected online through questionnaire using the snow ball sampling technique from 400 respondents from 13 States of India was considered. The questionnaire contained total 17 negative and positive items related to the consequences/outcome of the pandemic, which could also psychologically influence people unfavourably and favourably. The responses were scored to work out the total consequences score. The data was analyzed using Factor Analysis and Odds Ratio test and interpreted as proportion and scores. The results of the consequences score show that majority of the respondents have faced medium level of consequences, while some of them faced low consequences only. Negative consequences such as mental stress, income/job loss, less social interaction, increase in health problems, unrest or quarrel in the family, social interaction/transportation/recreation/capability of old people to support themselves/health care for medical problems being affected, work from home not helpful, and less reduction in family expenses during the pandemic have been observed under the study. Positive consequences of the pandemic such as reduced pollution and better environmental conditions due to lock down, lock down time used for learning agriculture/fisheries, and increase in time spent with family are also evident. Factor analysis shows that age, education, and no. of family members of the respondents explain 69.9% of the variability in their total consequences score. Odds ratio reveals that people aged more than 40 years, with PG and Degree qualifications, and having more than 4 family members faced less COVID related consequences. This is also substantiated by the comparatively higher proportion of people under these categories of the three characteristics giving favourable responses for positive and negative consequences items under the study.

Keywords

COVID-19, Pandemic, Consequences, Consequences score

Introduction

COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease 2019) was first identified in China on November 17 2019 [1]. From there, it spread to other countries very rapidly and hence, WHO declared the disease as pandemic. The first case of COVID-19 reported in India was on 30th January 2020 [2]. The disease mainly spreads through respiratory droplets and the symptoms range from cough, throat infection, fever, body pain to the death of an individual. Older people are considered more prone to COVID-19 owing to their weak immune system [3].

The emergence of COVID-19 came as a shock to the entire world since the disease was spreading rapidly and most of the nations declared lockdown measures to contain the spread of the virus. This resulted in large scale economic disruption as most of the firms shutdown their production and business houses were closed. Many people lost their jobs and experienced difficulties in their lives due to the pandemic.

This study was carried out taking into consideration the consequences, which could have been faced by people due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods and Materials

The study was conducted during the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic 2020 in India. Data was collected online through questionnaire survey using the snow ball sampling technique. The questionnaire was initially sent to some people through WhatsApp/email, with a request to forward it to more people. Accordingly, responses were obtained from 412 respondents from the States of Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Haryana, Rajasthan, Odisha, Bihar, West Bengal and UP in India. After removing random and incomplete data, 400 samples were considered for analysis.

The questionnaire contained 17 items related to the consequences/outcome of the pandemic. Both negative and positive consequences items were considered, which could also psychologically influence people unfavourably and favourably respectively. They were selected based on media reports, review of literature etc. The negative items relate to the direct psychological consequence of the pandemic such as mental stress and those which could indirectly affect people psychologically such as loss of income, job etc. The positive items relate to aspects such as reduced pollution and better environmental conditions due to the lock down, lock down time used for learning agriculture/fisheries etc.

The five-point continuum to the items on how much the respondents were affected due to the first wave of the pandemic were: Very much, Moderately, Less, Very less, and Not at all. These responses for the negative consequences items were scored from 1 to 5 and reverse scored for the positive items. The total score of all the items was considered as the total COVID consequences score. A higher score indicates less consequences faced by the respondent and vice versa. The level of higher consequences faced due to the pandemic in relation to the bench mark level of “No consequences” faced (as considered in this study) was calculated as follows: The total consequences score of the respondent is subtracted from the maximum possible score of 85 (which will be obtained by a respondent who has faced “No consequences” at all), divided by 85 and expressed in percentage as the level of higher consequences faced in relation to the bench mark level of “No consequences”.

The characteristics of the respondents such as sex, age, education, marital status and no. of family members were also included in the questionnaire. Data was analyzed using statistical techniques such as Factor Analysis and Odds ratio test and interpreted as proportion and scores.

Results

COVID Related Consequences Faced

Since there are negative as well as positive consequences due to the COVID-19 pandemic analyzed in this study, the terms consequences as well as outcome have been used in Table 1. 17.5% respondents were of the opinion that the COVID-19 pandemic 2020 has affected their lives very much, while, it affected 42.5% moderately. 16.5% and 10.5% mentioned that it affected them only less and very less respectively, while the pandemic did not affect 13% respondents at all (Table 1). It can be made out from Table 1 that 27.5% respondents experienced very much and 45% moderate mental stress due to the pandemic. The income of 51% respondents only were found to be affected either very much or moderately due to the pandemic, while, regarding loss of job, 34.5% report not at all affected, 12% very less and 23.5% less affected (Table 1). With respect to health care for existing/new medical problems, only 8% are very much and 25.5% moderately affected. Similarly, the respondents affected very much and moderately through increase in health problems is comparatively less than those who report less, very less and not at all affected.

Table 1: Consequences/outcome of the COVID-19 pandemic 2020.

Sl. No.

Consequence/outcome of the pandemic Respondents (%) Total (%)

Extent of consequence/outcome faced

Very much Moderately Less Very less

Not at all

1 Mental stress

27.5

45.0 13.5 5.5 8.5

100

2 Affected income

20.5

30.5 17.5 11.0 20.5

100

3 Affected due to loss of job

15.5

14.5 23.5 12.0 34.5

100

4 Affected health care for existing/new medical problems

8.0

25.5 23.5 20.0 23.0

100

5 By remaining more at home, unrest/quarrel in the family increased

4.0

12.5 22.0 15.5 46.0

100

6 Social interaction affected

42.5

31.0 12.5 6.5 7.5

100

 7 Affected freedom of movement

59.0

26.0 6.0 4.5 4.5

100

 8 Transportation affected

55.0

27.5 9.5 2.0 6.0

100

 9 Other health problems increased

2.5

17.5 24.0 20.5 35.5

100

10 Leisure/recreation activities affected

37.5

31.0 13.5 9.5 8.5

100

11 School closure increased load on parents*

32.1

28.5 15.0 10.8 13.6

100

12 Affected the capacity of old persons to support themselves**

23.3

40.7 17.4 7.6 11.0

100

13 Lock down reduced pollution and created better environmental conditions

63.5

25.5 4.5 3.5

3.0

100

14 Lock down time was used for learning agriculture/fisheries & other hobbies

100

 26.0

37.0 13.0 8.5

15.5

15 Time spent with family increased

55.0

28.0 7.0 3.0 7.0

100

 

16

Working from home helped me and my family

13.0

12.5 19.5 31.5 23.5

100

17 Family expenses reduced

13.5

11.5 21.5 42.5 11.0

100

*Among those who have children.
**Among those having old persons in their house.

Unrest/quarrel in the family has not at all increased through remaining more at home for 46% respondents, while 15.5% and 22% report very less and less increase in this respectively. 42.5% and 31% respectively reported that social interaction was affected very much and moderately due to the pandemic. 59% and 26% are of the opinion that freedom of movement has been affected very much and moderately respectively, while almost similar proportion mention that transportation was affected very much and moderately.

37.5% and 31% respondents report that their leisure/recreation activities were affected very much and moderately respectively. A total of 64% respondents report that the pandemic affected the capability of old persons to support themselves either very much or moderately. Work from home during the pandemic period was less and very less helpful for 51% respondents, while it did not help 23.5% respondents at all.

A total of 64% respondents reports only less or very less reduction in family expenses during the pandemic period.

63.5% and 25.5% respondents are of the opinion that the pandemic induced lock down very much and moderately reduced pollution and created better environmental conditions respectively. Similarly, the lock down time was used for learning agriculture/fisheries & other hobbies by a total of 63% respondents very much and moderately. Time spent with their families increased very much during the pandemic period for 55% and moderately for 28% respondents, even though the level of social interaction with other people was restricted very much for 42.5% and moderately for 31% respondents.

COVID Consequences Score

Table 2 shows the total COVID consequences score of the respondents categorised based on the quartile method. A high score indicates that the respondents have faced low consequences and vice versa for a low score. Majority (44.5%) of the respondents in the study have faced medium COVID related consequences, while 27.5% faced low consequences only. It may be made out from Table 3 that in the case of 77.5% respondents, more consequences faced (in relation to the condition of “No consequences faced”) is in the range of 57.6% to 35.3%. More consequences faced is in the lowest range of 34.1 to 14.1% only for 13.7% respondents.

Table 2: Categories of total COVID consequences score.

Total consequences score category*

Mean score Minimum score Maximum score

Respondents (%)

High**

57.14

52 73

27.5

Low***

36.17

16 41

28.0

Medium

46.26

42 51

44.5

Total

46.43

16 73

100

*Based on quartile method.
**Low consequences faced.
***High consequences faced.

Table 3: Range of total COVID consequences score.

Range of total consequences score

Range (%) of more consequences faceda

Respondents (%)

16-35

81.2-58.8

8.8

36-55

57.6-35.3

77.5

56-73

34.1-14.1

13.7

Total

100

aIn relation to the condition of “No consequences faced”.
Lower the score, higher the consequences faced.

Characteristics Contributing to the Consequences Score

Factor analysis was carried out to determine the major characteristics of the respondents contributing to the total COVID consequences score. The results are presented in Table 4, which shows that the first four factors show significant eigen value (>1) and explain 69.92% of the variability in the total score of the respondents. Among the characteristics, age, education, and no. of family members contribute significantly (factor loading>0.50) to the factor components observed in the total consequences score.

Table 4: Factor analysis of total COVID consequences score.

Characteristics

Factor loading

Factor

1

2 3

4

Age

0.77

-0.02 0.64

0.00

Sex

0.29

0.10 0.25

-0.34

Education

-0.31

0.90 0.30

0.00

Marital status

0.37

0.02 0.19

0.55

No. of family members

-0.69

-0.44 0.58

0.00

Family members less10 years of age

-0.32

-0.10 0.11

0.30

Marital status

-0.02

-0.10 0.44

-0.07

Income

-0.03

0.39 0.21

0.15

Initial Eigen values

1.78

1.44 1.29

1.06

Variance (%)

22.36

18.11 16.12

13.32

Cumulative %

22.36

40.47 56.60

69.92

Chances to Obtain High Total COVID Consequences Score for People with Different Age, Education and No. of Family Members

Table 5 shows the results of the statistical test of odds ratio with respect to high total consequences score (less consequences faced) with respect to age, education and no. of family members, which showed high factor loading (Table 4). It can be made out from Table 5 that respondents with more than 4 family members have 0.37 times more chances of obtaining high score (indicting less consequences) than those with less than 4 family members. Similarly, respondents aged more than 40 years have 0.79 times more chances of obtaining high score (indicting less consequences) than those aged less than 40. However, PhD holders have 0.33 times less chances of obtaining high score (indicting less consequences) than those who have PG and Degree.

Table 5: Odds ratios of personal characteristics on total COVID consequences score.

Characteristic

Category

Odds ratio*

Age

>40 vs.<40

1.79

No. of family members

>4 vs.<4

1.37

Education

PhD vs PG and Degree

0.67

*Indicating the chances of respondents to have a high total score (less consequences faced).

Considering 13.7% respondents shown in Table 3 who have the highest range of total score of 56 to 73 (which implies that only 34.1% to 14.1% more consequences have been faced by them than the condition of “No consequences faced”), 63.6% of these respondents are found to have a total score of 60 and above. Total consequence score of 60 and above implies that the higher consequences faced by them in relation to the condition of “No consequences faced” is 29.4% and less only.

Hence, based on the results of factor analysis (Table 4) and odds ratio (Table 5), the proportion of respondents under different categories of age, education and no. of family members (the characteristics considered in working out the odds ratio) was worked out for those getting a total consequence score of 60 and above. The results are shown in Table 6.

Table 6: Age, Number of family and education of respondents having high total COVID consequences score.

Respondents (%) with total consequences score of 60 and above

Age No. of family members

Education

Up to 40

>40

Up to 4 >4 PhD

PG and Degree

26.0

74.0

40.7 59.3 26.0

74.0

The maximum total score of respondents in the study was 73.

It can be made out from Table 6 that while 74% respondents aged more than 40 years have total consequences score of 60 and above, only 26% below 40 years of age have this score. This could be the reason for the odds ratio of 1.79 for age (Table 5), which implies that respondents aged more than 40 years have 79% more chance of obtaining high score (less consequences) than those aged less than 40.

Similarly, while 59.3% of respondents with more than 4 family members get a total consequence score of of 60 and above, the figure is only 40.7% for those with less than 4 members (Table 6). This could be why the odds ratio of 1.37 is there for no. of family members (Table 5), indicating that respondents with more than 4 family members have 37% more chance of obtaining high score (less consequences) than those with less than 4 family members.

However, with regard to education, while 74% respondents with PG and Degree have total consequences score of 60 and above, only 26% with PhD are having this score. The odds ratio was 0.67 for education (Table 5), which means that PhD holders have 33% less chance of obtaining high score (less consequences) than those with PG and Degree qualifications.

For better interpretation of the influence of age, education and no. of family members (family size) on the total COVID consequences score (whose results were observed in the odds ratio test), the variation in proportion of responses to different consequences items were worked out for these characteristics. Only perceptible differences in the responses to the consequences items between various categories of the characteristics have been included in the concerned tables which follow.

Age wise responses to different consequences items are shown in Table 7. With respect to the negative consequence item, namely, income affected due to the COVID-19 pandemic, while 31.7% respondents up to 40 years of were very much affected, only 10.5% of those with more than 40 years of age report in this manner. Further, 27% of those aged more than 40 reports that income was not at all affected due to the occurrence of the pandemic, when compared to only 12.3% of those less than 40 years of age (Table 7). While 19% of respondents up to the age of 40 were affected very much due to loss of job, the figure for more than 40 age respondents is only 6%. 19.5% of respondents with age more than 40 were less affected due to job loss, while only 15.5% of people up to 40 years of age report in this manner (Table 7).

Table 7: Age wise responses to consequences items.

Sl. No.

Consequence item Age group Respondents (%)
Very much Moderately Less Very less

Not at all

 1 Income affected

Up to 40

31.7 NA* NA NA

12.3

>40

10.5 NA NA NA

27.0

 2 Job loss

Up to 40

19.0 NA 15.5 NA

NA

>40

 6.0 NA 19.5 NA

NA

 3 Time spent with the family increased

Up to 40

NA NA 7.8 NA

7.2

>40

NA NA 4.8 NA

5.4

 4 Due to lockdown, quarrel/unrest in the family increased

Up to 40

6.1 17.8 NA NA

34.0

>40

2.5 7.6 NA NA

51.2

 5 Affected freedom of movement

Up to 40

61.1 NA NA 3.9

3.9

>40

56.7 NA NA 5.4

7.4

 6 Transportation affected

Up to 40

62.8 NA 8.3 0.6

NA

>40

48.0 NA 10.4 3.7

NA

 7 Stress level including fear of virus infection increased

Up to 40

34.4 NA NA NA

7.8

>40

18.8 NA NA NA

12.8

 8 Other diseases/health problems increased

Up to 40

NA 21.7 NA 18.3

26.7

>40

NA 14.4 NA 20.9

37.2

 9 Health care for existing/new medical problems increased

Up to 40

11.1 NA 18.9 15.7

NA

>40

 6.0 NA 21.3 18.4

NA

 10 Leisure/recreation activities affected

Up to 40

37.8 NA NA 7.2

11.6

>40

34.2 NA NA 9.5

13.8

 11 School closure increased pressure/load in children and parents

Up to 40

33.9 25.0 7.8 6.1

NA

>40

11.0 14.9 12.6 12.6

NA

 12 Affected the capacity of older people to support themselves

Up to 40

26.2 NA 14.4 3.3

7.2

>40

13.8 NA 16.3 9.1

12.9

 13 Lockdown time was used in learning/doing agriculture/fisheries etc.

Up to 40

NA 31.1 16.2 NA

NA

>40

NA 41.6 10.1 NA

NA

*Data not shown since perceptible difference was not observed in these responses for the consequences items

Now, considering a positive consequence item -time spent with family increased during the pandemic period, Table 7 shows that while a higher proportion (7.8%) respondents under the age group of more than 40 report as less time spent with the family, only 4.8% respondents with more than 40 age report so. Further, while 7.2% of up to 40 age report as not all spent time with the family, only 5.4% of people aged more than 40 report in this manner.

Similarly, considering the other consequences items shown in Table 7, it can be inferred that a comparatively lower proportion of respondents above the age of 40 report affected very much/moderately for the negative consequences items than those with up to 40 years of age, while a higher proportion of respondents above the age of 40 report affected less/very less/not at all for the negative consequences items, when compared to the respondents aged up to 40 years. Similarly, with regard to the positive consequences items shown in Table 7, a comparatively higher proportion of respondents above the age of 40 report as experiencing very much/moderately for the positive consequences items than those with up to 40 years of age, while a lower proportion of respondents above the age of 40 report as less/very less/not at all for the positive items, when compared to respondents aged up to 40 years.

These trends indicate that people with more than 40 years of age have faced comparatively less consequences than those aged less than 40 years. This would also help to substantiate the results of the odds ratio of 1.79 for age of the respondents (Table 5), which implies that respondents in the study who are aged more than 40 years have 79% more chance of obtaining a high score/facing less consequences) than those aged less than 40.

As in the case of age, it can be inferred from the data presented in Table 8 that a comparatively lower proportion of respondents with PG and Degree qualification report affected very much/moderately for the negative consequences items than those having PhD, while a higher proportion of respondents with PG and Degree report as affected less/very less/not at all for the negative consequences items, when compared to those having PhD. Similarly, with regard to the positive consequences items, a comparatively higher proportion of respondents with PG and Degree report as experiencing very much/moderately for the positive consequences items than those with PhD, and a lower proportion of PG and Degree respondents report less/very less/not at all for the positive items, when compared to respondents having PhD qualification.

Table 8: Education wise responses to consequences items.

Sl. No.

Consequence item Education Respondents (%) reporting
Very much Moderately Less Very less

Not at all

1 Income affected PG and Degree

NA

28.0 NA* NA

21.4

PhD

NA

36.2 NA NA

16.2

2 Loss of job PG and Degree

NA

NA 19.4 NA

28.2

PhD

NA

NA 15.0 NA

23.7

4 Due to lockdown, quarrel/unrest in the family increased PG and Degree

NA

12.9 NA 13.6

44.4

PhD

NA

15.0 NA 10.0

32.5

5 Social interaction and cohesion affected PG and Degree

NA

27.8 12.3 7.3

NA

PhD

NA

40.0 8.8 2.5

NA

6 Affected freedom of movement PG and Degree

57.0

NA NA NA

5.4

PhD

60.0

NA NA NA

2.5

7 Transportation affected

 

PG and Degree

51.0

NA 9.7 NA

7.4

PhD

 

62.4

NA 8.8 NA

3.8

8 Stress level including fear of virus infection increased PG and Degree

NA

43.4 14.4 6.0

10.0

PhD

NA

57.4 8.8 3.8

7.5

9 Other diseases/health problems increased PG and Degree

NA

15.7 NA 33.7

4.4

PhD

NA

25.0 NA 27.5

Nil

10 Health care for existing/new medical problems increased PG and Degree

NA

15.7 NA 23.0

33.7

PhD

NA

25.0 NA 11.3

27.5

11 School closure increased pressure/load in children and parents PG and Degree

20.2

NA NA 8.7

NA

PhD

25.0

NA NA 5.0

NA

12 Affected the capacity of older people to support themselves PG and Degree

NA

35.1 NA 11.0

NA

PhD

NA

37.5 NA 7.5

NA

*Data not shown since perceptible difference was not observed in these responses for the consequences items

These findings indicate that people with PG and Degree qualifications have faced comparatively less consequences than those having PhD, which would also support the result of odds ratio of 0.67 for Education (Table 5), which implies that PhD holders have 33% less chance of obtaining high score/facing less consequences than those with PG and Degree qualifications.

It can be made out from Table 9 that comparatively less proportion of respondents having more than 4 family members report affected very much/moderately for the negative consequences items than those with a family size of 4 members, while a higher proportion of respondents with family size of more than 4 members report affected less/very less/not at all for the negative consequences items than the respondents with a family size of 4 members. Similarly, for the positive consequences items, comparatively high proportion of respondents with more than 4 family members report experiencing the positive consequences items very much/moderately than those with only 4 members, and a lesser proportion with more than 4 family members report less/very less/not at all for the positive items, when compared to respondents with a family size of 4.

Table 9: Family size wise responses to consequences items.

Sl. No.

Consequence item No. of family members Respondents (%) reporting
Very much Moderately Less Very less

Not at all

1 Work from home helped me/my family

Up to 4

7.9 30.9 NA NA NA
>4 11.1 45.3 NA NA

NA

2 Social interaction and cohesion affected

Up to 4

NA 43.2 9.6 5.3

4.7

>4

NA 18.7 17.9 9.3

13.4

3 Affected freedom of movement

Up to 4

NA 38.0 6.1 2.1

1.2

>4

NA 19.3 9.5 10.6

8.4

4 Affected the capacity of older people to support themselves

Up to 4

NA 36.6 14.3 4.7

NA

>4

NA 25.6 22.6 14.0

NA

5 Lockdown reduced pollution and created better environmental conditions

Up to 4

52.2 NA 11.0 NA

NA

>4

74.9 NA  1.2 NA

NA

6 Lockdown time was used in learning/doing agriculture/fisheries etc.

Up to 4

24.9 NA NA 14.6

11.5

>4

38.4 NA NA  4.5

5.9

*Data not shown since perceptible difference was not observed in these responses for the consequences items

Similar to age and education, these results substantiate the odds ratio of 1.37 for the characteristic, namely, no. of family members (family size), which indicates 37% more chance for respondents with a family size of more than 4 members to get a high COVID consequences score/face less consequence than those having a family size of less than 4.

Discussion

The study shows that a high proportion of respondents representing various States of India experienced very much and moderate mental stress due to the pandemic. WHO has warned of a “massive increase in mental health conditions” arising from the pandemic. Mental health experts in Mumbai have observed an increase in feelings of anger, frustration and helplessness. [4]. However, in a study conducted in Kerala State of India by WEDO (NGO), majority of the respondents did not experience high level of negative feelings/mental state on the COVID pandemic, while most of them experienced the positive feelings well [5].

A survey found that 77% of economically active adults in India had lost income due to the pandemic (https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/77-indian-adults-lost-income-due-to-covid-19-pandemic-survey/story-QjCVwkt4xNmJwcHw4I5wMP.html-retrieved 22 Aug 2021). According to WHO, the COVID-19 pandemic has decimated jobs and many are without the means to earn an income and the access to quality health care during the pandemic induced lockdown (Source: Impact of COVID-19 on people’s livelihoods, their health and our food systems-Joint statement by ILO, FAO, IFAD and WHO. October 2020. https://www.who.int/news/item/13-10-2020-impact-of-covid-19-on-people’s-livelihoods-their-health-and-our-food-systems-retrieved 22nd August 2021)). Health is defined by WHO as the “state of complete physical, mental and social well-being and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity” (World Health Organization (WHO). Naming the coronavirus disease (COVID19) and the virus that causes it. https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novelcoronavirus-2019/technical-guidance/naming-the-coronavirus-disease-(covid2019)-and-the-virus-that-causes-it. – retrieved 1st November 2021). However, in the present study, income of about 50% of the respondents only were found to be affected either very much or moderately due to the pandemic, while 70% respondents mention as not at all affected, very less and less affected with respect to job. Health care for existing/new medical problems are very much and moderately affected on account of the pandemic for some respondents only. Similarly, those who are affected very much and moderately through increase in health problems is comparatively less than the total proportion reporting less, very less and not at all affected.

Not only is the infection with COVID-19 disease a risk, but people are limiting their social interactions with others, working from home, and avoiding unnecessary gatherings. In this study also, social interaction was affected very much and moderately due to the pandemic for a very high proportion of respondents.

While overcoming the COVID-19 pandemic relies on an efficient strategy that involves the whole population, the elderly people are disproportionately affected by this disease [6]. In this study also a good proportion mention that the pandemic affected the capability of old persons to support themselves either very much or moderately.

The advantages of working from home include reduced commuting time, avoiding office politics, using less office space, increased motivation, improved gender diversity (e.g. women and careers), healthier workforces with less absenteeism and turnover, higher talent retention, job satisfaction, and better productivity [7,8]. However, the present study has shown that work from home during the pandemic period was not at all, very less and less helpful for a very high proportion of people.

Slowdown in spending by Indian households is reported to have saved additional $200 billion during Covid pandemic and lockdowns. (https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/indians-saved-additional-200-billion-during-covid-pandemic-and-lockdowns/articleshow/80386426.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst- retrieved 24th August 2021). However, in the present study, high proportion of respondents representing various States of India reported only less or very less reduction in family expenses during the pandemic period.

The study has also shown some positive outcomes during the pandemic period. Very high proportion of respondents report that the COVID 19 induced lock down reduced pollution and created better environmental conditions very much and moderately. Similarly, the lock down time was used for learning agriculture/fisheries and other hobbies very much and moderately by a high proportion of respondents. Even though the level of social interaction outside the family was significantly restricted, time spent with their families increased very much and moderately during the pandemic period for many respondents. Unlike the past, the onset of the COVID pandemic and the resultant lockdown has given families across India and the world a new lease of familial bonding that was otherwise hard to come by. For the first time in a long time, many parents and kids and even grandparents are all under the same roof round-the-clock. This enforced togetherness can deepen relationships for years to come. According to Brad Wilcox, a professor of sociology and director of the National Marriage Project at the University of Virginia, people and families when faced with a global crisis, and especially one of this scale, tend to respond by orienting themselves in a less self-centred way and in a more family-centric way (https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/life-style/spotlight/how-the-lockdown-is-cementing-relationships-and-bringing-families-together/articleshow/75731732.cms- retrieved 23rd August 2021).

The results reveal that majority of the respondents have faced medium to low COVID related consequences only. Further, people aged more than 40 years, with PG and Degree qualifications, and having more than 4 family members have faced less COVID related consequences only. This is substantiated by the comparatively higher proportion of people under these categories of age, education and no. of family members giving favourable responses for positive and negative consequences items. These findings also support the odds ratio values observed for these categories of the characteristics, which indicate the chances for people falling under the particular categories to face less COVID consequences.

To conclude, majority of the respondents under the study have faced medium level of COVID-19 related consequences, while some of them faced low consequences only. Negative consequences include mental stress, income/job loss, less social interaction, increase in health problems, unrest or quarrel in the family, social interaction/transportation/recreation/capability of old people to support themselves/health care for medical problems being affected, work from home not helpful, and less reduction in family expenses during the pandemic. Positive consequences of the pandemic such as reduced pollution and better environmental conditions due to lock down, lock down time used for learning agriculture/fisheries, and increase in time spent with family are also observed in the study. Age, education, and no. of family members of the respondents explain 69.9% of the variability in their total consequences score. People aged more than 40 years, those with PG and Degree qualifications, and people having more than 4 family members are found to have faced less consequences only. This is also substantiated by the comparatively higher proportion of people under these categories of age, education and no. of family members giving favourable responses for positive and negative consequences items under the study.

It would be worthwhile if studies on the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic occurring during different periods are carried out in various parts of the affected countries in order to facilitate the health and other field level workers to introduce location specific measures/strategies to address the problems faced by people. The development of useful information through such studies appears to be essential in the days to come for the policy makers also, keeping in mind the fact that the pandemic is continuing in time, space and severity in different parts of the world even now.

References

  1. Balkhi F, Nasir A, Zehra A, Riaz R (2020) Psychological and behavioral response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Cureus. 12: 5.[crossref]
  2. Annamuthu P, Shenbagavadivu, T, Arthi S (2020) A study on the perception and precautionary measures taken by the general public amidst COVID-19. Int J Modern Trends Sci Technol 6: 169-74.
  3. Mikaberidze A (2020) Letter To the Editor: “Letter to the Editor.” International Journal of Phytoremediation 20: 135-136.
  4. Fuad Bakioğlu, Ozan Korkmaz, Hülya Ercan (2020) Fear of COVID-19 and Positivity: Mediating Role of Intolerance of Uncertainty,Depression, Anxiety, and Stress. Int J Ment Health Addict. 28: 1-14.[crossref]
  5. Madhava Chandran K, Naveena K, Valsan T, Sreevallabhan S (2021). Analysis of the Mental State of People on COVID-19 Pandemic. International Journal of Indian Psychology 9: 839-845.
  6. Daoust J-F (2020) Elderly people and responses to COVID-19 in 27 Countries. [crossref]
  7. Mello JA (2007)Managing Telework Programs Effectively. Employee Responsibilities and Rights Journal 19: 247-261.
  8. Robertson MM, Maynard WS, McDevitt JR (2003) Telecommuting: Managing the Safety of Workers in Home Office Environments. Professional Safety 48: 30-36.
fig 2

Maladjustment of Pressure Settings of Programmable Shunt Valves by Weak Magnetic Fields – A Case Report

DOI: 10.31038/PSYJ.2022412

Abstract

Introduction: Hydrocephalus is caused by the progressive accumulation of cerebral spinal fluid (CSF) within the intracranial space. Resulting in an abnormal expansion of cerebral ventricles and, consequently, in brain damage. The standard treatment of hydrocephalus in children and adults is implantation of a shunt valve (i.e. Codman-Hakim shunt valve from Johnson & Johnson). This study shows easy maladjustment of a Codman-Hakim programmable valve even with magnetic field strengths as they occur in daily life.

Methods and Materials: The Codman-Hakim valve is a programmable CSF shunt valve with an opening pressure between 30 and 200 mm H2O. The valve relies on a special ball-in-cone system. A spherical ruby ball is pressed against a conical valve seat by a stainless-steel spring. The spring is attached to a spiral cam. If the pressure difference across the valve exceeds a preset pressure adjustment, the ball rises from the seat and vents CSF. To provide a larger valve orifice, the ball moves further away from the seat once the flow rate through the valve increases.

Findings and Outlook: Electromagnetic locking mechanism of common hospital doors employs magnetic field amplitudes strong enough to unintentionally change the patient’s shunt settings We experimentally verified that even weak (5-25 mT) magnetic fields can lead to significant changes in the spiral cam setting of Codman-Hakim shunt valves weak magnetic fields of up to 25 mT suggest that shunt valve might even interfere with household objects when brought in close proximity (i.e. refrigerator magnets) Our everyday life involves electronic and technological advances, the number of potentially interfering devices is likely to increase systematic characterization of various shunt valves with respect to everyday’s objects might be of significant importance to prevent ‘artificially’ created psychiatric symptomatic.

Keywords

Codman-Hakim programmable shunt valves, Maladjustment, Case report, Hydrocephalus

Introduction

Hydrocephalus is caused by a progressive accumulation of cerebral spinal fluid (CSF) within the intracranial space resulting in an abnormal expansion of cerebral ventricles and, consequently, in brain damage.

Implantation of ventriculo-peritoneal shunts (VP-shunts) is the standard treatment of hydrocephalus in children and adults. Most of the currently used shunt systems involve a valve to control pressure and drain CSF if needed [1-3].

In the last few years, malfunctions of programmable VP-shunts have been reported in cases in which patients have encountered powerful electromagnetic fields, e. g. Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) [4,5]. However, the effects of small magnetic fields on VP-shunts are not well known.

In this study we present a case from Forensic Psychiatry in which pressure settings of an implanted Codman-Hakim programmable valve were changed when using electromagnetically controlled doors in a hospital ward.

Case Report

The patient is a 53-year-old man with a triventricular hydrocephalus due to cerebri stenosis of aqueductus, diagnosed in January 2013 – randomly discovered via MRI because of a newly developed insecure gait without Hakim’s triad. Also, an increasing psychomotoric slowdown and affective flattening were described. A treatment with a left ventriculoperitoneal programmable Codman Hakim valve and a Miethke-shunt-assistant was selected.

The pressure of the Codman-Hakim programmable valve was preset at 60 mm H2O, since the patient developed hygroma as a sign of overdrainage in June 2018.

In September 2018 the patient’s behavior was slightly changing. He showed an increasing affective flattening and modifications in psychopathology like repellent behavior. Often a loss of motivation and discouraged answering were recognized.

In skull x-ray a change in preset pressure from 60 to 50 mm H2O was recognized. In consideration of observed ventricle range, previous patient history of overdrainage and maladjusted pressure setting of 50 mm H2O, the valve pressure was changed to 40 mm H2O. One day after changing the pressure setting, the patient felt better and the described symptoms became less.

In mid-January the same symptoms recurred. Skull x-ray revealed a pressure setting of 50 instead of the preset 40 mm H2O and excluded a shunt disconnection. Again, maladjustments in the pressure setting were thought to have caused behavioral changes, and the valve pressure was subsequently reprogrammed to 40 mm H2O. Again, the patient improved clinically. Due to the rigorous absence of mobile phones or any other external electromagnetic equipment, the valve’s pressure setting had to be changed by some device present in Forensic Psychiatry – the magnetically closure assistance of the doors.

Methods

The Codman Hakim valve (Codman, Johnson & Johnson Company) is a programmable CSF shunt with an opening pressure between 30 and 200 mm H2O. The valve relies on a special ball-in-cone system. A spherical ruby ball is biased against a conical valve seat by a stainless-steel spring. Atop the spring sits a rotating spiral cam that contains a stepper motor. If the pressure difference across the valve exceeds a predefined popping pressure the ball rises from the seat to vent CSF. To provide a larger valve orifice the ball moves further away from the seat if the flow rate through the valve increases. Therefore, the pressure drop across the orifice never rises much above the predefined popping pressure.

To adjust a particular opening pressure an external handheld programming device is placed over the valve and the four programmer’s coils enclose the spiral cam centrically (Figure 1). Generating an electrically induced alternating magnetic field only few magnets are attracted by one coil or another. By switching on and off the electric current the spiral cam rotates step by step. This enables setting the opening pressure non-invasively within 18 steps with a range of 10 mm H2O each.

fig 1

Figure 1: Sketch of a Codman-Hakim shunt valve

In addition to the described case, our internal testing in Forensic Psychiatry showed also changes of valve’s pressure settings. To evaluate interactions between the Codman Hakim valve and the doors, a field experiment was conducted. A similar, unused Codman Hakim shunt valve was held up at patient’s face level while walking through different doors in the hospital ward. Before and after passing a door, the angle of the spiral cam was measured using an optical microscope. Before and after the walk through a doorway, the angle of the spiral cam was measured with an optical microscope (Figure 2).

fig 2

Figure 2: Rotating spiral cam before and after passing a door the angle of the spiral cam was measured using an optical microscope.

Conclusion

The described case and our internal testing suggest that even weak magnetic fields below 80 mT may lead to significant changes in the cam setting of Codman-Hakim shunt valves. Therefore, even common household items may interfere with Codman-Hakim shunt valves. In fact, any item that creates a magnetic field with a corresponding trajectory of movement, even devices in the healthcare environment, could potentially influence pressure settings. Because our everyday life involves more and more electronic and technological advances, the number of potentially interfering devices is very likely to increase. Both low-intensity and strong magnetic fields carry the risk of interacting with the pressure settings of shunt valves, a problem that both patients and medical professionals should be made aware of.

Even though the validation and reproducibility of our tests may have been somewhat limited, our results underline the fragility of Codman-Hakim shunt valves against even the weakest magnetic fields and pave the way for safe medical devices. Because our everyday life involves more and more electronic and technological advances, the number of potentially interfering devices is very likely to increase. Both low-intensity and strong magnetic fields carry the risk of interacting with the pressure settings of shunt valves, a problem that both patients and medical professionals should be made aware of [6,7].

References

  1. Akbar M, Aschoff A, Georgi JC, Nennig E, Heiland S etal (2010) Adjustable Cerebrospinal Fluid Shunt Valves in 3.0-Tesla MRI: a Phantom Study using Explanted Devices. Rofo 182: 594-602 [crossref]
  2. Kahle KT, Kulkarni AV, Limbrick DD, Warf BC (2016) Hydrocephalus in children. Lancet. 387: 788-799. [crossref]
  3. Mirzayan MJ, Klinge PM, Samii M, Goetz F, Krauss JK (2012) MRI safety of a programmable shunt assistant at 3 and 7 Tesla. Br JNeurosurg 26(3): 397-400. [crossref]
  4. Okazaki T, Oki S, Migita K, Kurisu K (2005) A rare case of shunt malfunction attributable to a broken Codman-Hakim programmable shunt valve after a blow to the head. Pediatr Neurosurg 41: 241-243 [crossref]
  5. Portillo Medina SA, Franco JVA, Ciapponi A, Garotte V, Vietto V (2017) Ventriculo- peritoneal shunting devices for hydrocephalus. Cochrane Database Syst Rev. [crossref]
  6. PROCEDURE GUIDE Codman Hakim Programmable Valve System for Hydrocephalus.
  7. Schneider T, Knauff U, Nitsch J (2002) Electromagnetic field hazards involving adjustable shunt valves in hydrocephalus. J Neurosurg 96: 331-334 [crossref]

Home is Where the Heart is, but Where is “Home”?

DOI: 10.31038/PSYJ.2022411

 

Due to constant political and financial instability, many young adults are leaving Argentina moving to various places around the world searching for a more promising future. This emigration has been raising on and on for the last few years …

For those of us who have been living abroad for some time, we know that living abroad is not easy and finding a new place to call home takes some time, one of the first questions you get when you meet someone is, where are you from? Of course, the answer to that question is easy. Later, when they get to know you, comes a second and sometimes tricky question, where is home for you.

Where is Home for Me

I was brought up in a family that moved from one country to another. Take into account that the internet and “family-based technology” are younger than me; so, staying connected was hard.… It was my dad’s job. We all just followed the league. Every three or four years we would come back to “homeland” Argentina, but, for me, that was not home. No friends, no school, no known neighborhood…Home for me was where my parents lived, no special land, no matter the country, just that place where I could be myself. I was from “my family”, that was when I discovered that for me home was where my heart was.

I grew up and discovered I had the “moving bee” inside. I just went on traveling and moving from one place to another. While I studied animal behavior, I saw that animals would try to take possession of the place they lived. Usually, they would mark it with their smell just to make it theirs. Make it home for them and their family. This way they could also let the rest know that place was theirs. Well, I guess humans, or at least me, do the same in some way. We decorate the places, do the lawn. We make it home.

Attachment to Home

There is a connection, a cognitive-emotional bond between us humans and our settings, this attachment to what we call home is a common human experience that is why moving isn’t as easy as it might sound. To ignore this fact of minimizing its effects might make the emigration process harder.

It is no secret that people develop a strong attachment to what we call home. Nor related to a specific place, it is related to a sense of control, predictability stability.

Home is Where My Heart is

As I see a home as a part of my self-definition, I made a home of every place where every place I lived. I considered each of those places my home at one time or another, whether it was for months or years I made it mine. Home then was where I was, where my heart is. Me myself, that was my home.

So if you have decided to emigrate, if you chose to move to another country just remember to allow yourself the time to make that place you choose your home. This does not mean you regret what you left, it means your home is where your heart is.

Familiarity with Caspian Kutum (Rutilus kutum)

DOI: 10.31038/AFS.2022412

Abstract

Caspian kutum is one of the valuable and economical species in the Caspian Sea basin, which in most years of exploitation accounts for half of the amount of bony fish catch and has two forms of autumn and spring, the spring form of most of the stocks of this fish gives. These reserves have decreased due to various reasons such as irresponsible fishing, changes in the water level of the Caspian Sea, construction of dams, etc., and for this reason, they have resorted to artificial reproduction of this fish to compensate for this issue. It is an Anadromoys and migrates to the river to reproduce when it reaches sexual maturity and then returns to the sea. After spawning and returning to the sea, Caspian kutum feed on the shallow shores of the Caspian Sea, a land rich in benthic animals, for the remainder of spring and summer. In late summer, due to the very high temperature, Caspian kutum leave the shallow shores and live in deeper places, and when the autumn temperature rotates, they return to the shallow parts of the shores with a depth of less than 20 meters for feeding.

Keywords

Kutum, Caspian Sea, Anadromoys

Introduction

The Caspian Sea is the largest lake in the world and the unique and major habitat of Caspian kutum [1-4]. Caspian kutum is a bony fish belonging to the family Cyprinidae of the genus Rutilus with the scientific name of Rutilus kutum, a native fish of the Caspian Sea. Caspian kutum are migratory and rudimentary and spend most of their lives in the salty waters of the sea and migrate to the fresh water of the river every year in the spring (mid-March to the end of May) for spawning and reproduction [5].

Caspian kutum food is very diverse and numerous, in fact Caspian kutum is omnivorous and gluttonous. The intensity of feeding varies at different times, for example during reproductive times and when they migrate to the river to lay eggs, and the intestines of these fish are often thick and empty, and also in late winter and with decreasing temperature, this index decreases sharply Finds [6].

Sexual Management of Caspian kutum

Sexual maturity in fish is affected by various environmental factors such as temperature, length of light period, water salinity and various other factors. Changes in these factors can have adverse effects on fish reproduction [7].

Sexual Intercourse Consists of Six Stages

Stage 1 – Immature

Very small sexual organs close to the spine, testicles and ovaries transparent and grayish in color, eggs invisible to the naked eye (ovogony)

Stage 2 – Immature

In the testicles and ovaries are semi-transparent, gray, half or slightly more than half the length of the abdominal area, the eggs are solitary and with a visible magnifying glass, spawning fish (resting) are placed in this class (Primary eggs).

Stage 3 – Developing

The testicles and ovaries are dark, reddish with blood capillaries occupy half of the abdomen and the eggs are visible to the naked eye in the form of copper grains. (Hollow eggs)

Stage 4 – Preparation for Spawning

The genitals fill the abdominal area and the testicles are white, the sperm fluid is shed due to pressure and the eggs are completely round and some are semi-transparent.

Stage 5 – Spawning

Eggs and sperm are released at low pressure, most of the eggs are translucent with a number of clear eggs.

Stage 6 – Spawning

The ovaries are loose and wrinkled, the abdomen is completely empty and the eggs are empty [8].

Migration of Spring and Autumn forms of Caspian kutum

The maximum age of Caspian kutum is 9 to 10 years and its maximum weight is 5 to 6 kg. Male Caspian kutum mature at three years old and female Caspian kutum at four years old. Caspian kutum spawn on aquatic plants as well as on bedrock rocks and pebbles. Spawning peaks of spring Caspian kutum occur in April and May, when the water temperature is between 13 and 15 degrees Celsius.

After migrating to the sea, Caspian kutum spend their feeding and growth stages in the sea and after reaching the age of sexual maturity, they enter the fresh water environment of Anzali wetland and the rivers leading to the Caspian Sea for natural reproduction and reproduction.

Autumn migratory Caspian kutum, if the conditions are right, usually enter the sea from early October and through the canal, first the male fish and then the females. The Shijan region in the eastern lagoon spends time in deep areas and then, as the weather warms up in late winter, they migrate to rivers that are covered with marginal vegetation such as reeds and loess, and carry out propagation operations on them, which is why the reason for this form of Caspian kutum is called phytophilus. But now the main population of Caspian kutum in the Caspian Sea belongs to the spring form, which accounts for more than 98% of the reserves [9].

Artificial Reproduction

The annual extraction rate of Caspian kutum from 1980 to 2006 was between 8 to 11 thousand tons per year. Comparison of these release and catch values shows that during the last 30 years, more Caspian kutum stocks have been provided as a result of artificial reproduction, and the available evidence indicates that during this period, the natural reproduction conditions of Caspian kutum become more unsuitable every year and the share of natural reproduction in existing reserves Caspian kutum in the Caspian Sea have been declining to a very small extent. Caspian kutum feed and grow in the sea and after reaching sexual maturity are used for spawning in very few rivers as the main places for spawning and artificial reproduction of this species. Reconstruction of reserves involves capturing part of the population and reproducing them in captivity and releasing them into the wild. In this method, the broods are caught from the rivers of the Caspian Sea and after artificial reproduction, the fertilized eggs are transferred to the breeding center and finally the larvae weighing 2g are released into the sea, thus the annual fishing center has about 200 million The larvae are produced through artificial reproduction and this release plays a key role in restoring the stocks of this species [10-12].

References

  1. Kouchesfahani NE, Vajargah MF (2021) A SHORT REVIEW ON THE BIOLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SPECIES ESOX LUCIUS, LINNAEUS, 1758 IN CASPIAN SEA BASIN (IRAN). Transylvanian Review of Systematical & Ecological Research 23: 73-80.
  2. Forouhar Vajargah M, Sattari M, Imanpour Namin J, Bibak M (2021) Evaluation of trace elements contaminations in skin tissue of Rutilus kutum Kamensky 1901 from the south of the Caspian Sea. Journal of Advances in Environmental Health Research 9: 139-148.
  3. Forouhar Vajargah M, Sattari M, Imanpour Namin J, Bibak M (2020) Length-weight, length-length relationships and condition factor of Rutilus kutum (Actinopterygii: Cyprinidae) from the southern Caspian Sea, Iran. Journal of Animal Diversity 2: 56-61.
  4. Vajargah MF, Sattari M, Namin JI, Bibak M (2021) Predicting the Trace Element Levels in Caspian Kutum (Rutilus kutum) from south of the Caspian Sea Based on Locality, Season and Fish Tissue. Biological Trace Element Research 200: 354-363. [crossref]
  5. Vajargah MF, Mohsenpour R, Yalsuyi AM, Galangash MM, Faggio C (2021) Evaluation of Histopathological Effect of Roach (Rutilus rutilus caspicus) in Exposure to Sub-Lethal Concentrations of Abamectin. Water, Air, & Soil Pollution 232: 1-8.
  6. Sattari M, Vajargah MF, Bibak M, Bakhshalizadeh S (2020) Relationship between Trace Element Content in the Brain of Bony Fish Species and Their Food Items in the Southwest of the Caspian Sea Due to Anthropogenic Activities. Avicenna Journal of Environmental Health Engineering 7: 78-85.
  7. Forouhar Vajargah M, Sattari M, Imanpour J, Bibak M (2020) Length-weight relationship and‎ some growth parameters of‎ Rutilus kutum (Kaminski 1901) in‎ the South Caspian Sea. Experimental animal Biology 9: 11-20.
  8. Sattari M, Namin JI, Bibak M, Vajargah MF, Hedayati A, et al. (2019) Morphological comparison of western and eastern populations of Caspian kutum, Rutilus kutum (Kamensky, 1901)(Cyprinidae) in the southern Caspian Sea. International Journal of Aquatic Biology 6: 242-247.
  9. Sattari M, Imanpour Namin J, Bibak M, Forouhar Vajargah M, Bakhshalizadeh S, et al. (2020) Determination of trace element accumulation in gonads of Rutilus kutum (Kamensky, 1901) from the south Caspian Sea trace element contaminations in gonads. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, India Section B: Biological Sciences 90: 777-784.
  10. Vajargah MF, Hedayati A, Yalsuyi AM, Abarghoei S, Gerami MH, et al. (2014) Acute toxicity of Butachlor to Caspian Kutum (Rutilus frisii Kutum Kamensky, 1991). Journal of Environmental Treatment Techniques 2: 155-157.
  11. Sattari M, Bibak M, Forouhar Vajargah M (2020) Evaluation of trace elements contaminations in muscles of Rutilus kutum (Pisces: Cyprinidae) from the Southern shores of the Caspian Sea. Environmental Health Engineering and Management Journal 7: 89-96.
  12. Forouhar Vajargah M, Bibak M (2021) Pollution zoning on the southern shores of the Caspian Sea by measuring metals in Rutilus kutum Biological Trace Element Research 1-11. [crossref]

Women as Human Rights Defenders at Risk – A Present Case Example

DOI: 10.31038/AWHC.2022511

Abstract

November 29 has been appointed as International Women Human Rights Defenders Day, while persecution, imprisonment, cruel and unusual punishment, torture, and even extra-legal killings, are unfortunately frequent in many countries. The UN declaration against torture, or the Bangkok rules for the treatment of women as prisoners are often ignored in this context. In our short report we want to draw attention to a recent important case in Iran, that demonstrates the violation of human rights and potential health impact in a country singled out by the UN and many international NGOs for such violations. Both domestic and political violence must be addressed by strong efforts by the international community and national bodies, not only because of the adverse individual and public health impact, but also to protect the concept of human rights as a preventive factor in itself. Independent monitoring of the safety and health of women as prisoners, especially in the context of persecution, must be permitted to support this effort.

Keywords

Woman, Prison conditions, Torture, Persecution, Iran

Women are globally especially active as human rights defenders, but also at increased risk of persecution, imprisonment, cruel and unusual punishment and torture, as underlined by the installation of the 29th of November as International Women Human Rights Defenders Day, and demonstrated by the recent case of Narges Mohammadi, spokesperson for Iran’s Centre for Human Rights Defenders. Women, like the first women surgeon, Homa Shaibany [1], sometimes play an important role as professionals in the history and development of the country, in spite of the barriers facing them in public and professional life, as reported for example by the international NGO Human Rights Watch . Reports by victims and witnesses brought out of the country circumventing the else strict censorship, are frequently the only information on ongoing cases of violations and can at least be used to argue for independent investigation, as for example by the UN special rapporteurs on torture or on Iran.

Well known for both her publications and her firm stance in the defense of human rights in Iran, Mohammadi is back in prison after 13 months of freedom. She had been released on 8 October 2020 after more than five years behind bars and most recently Ms. Mohammadi was arbitrarily arrested and detained again after taking part in a memorial service, as reported by Amnesty International, the OMCT, and other independent international NGOs [2].

Between prison terms, persecution continued. According to personal communication to the author, during her 13 months of freedom, Mohammadi continued to be subjected to judicial harassment, which included being arrested at least eight times, as must be assumed, because of her support for the families of imprisoned journalists and other prisoners of conscience [3]. She was violently attacked by security forces on the street at least three times when she attempted to visit the families of political prisoners or executed prisoners Navid Afkari and Sattar Beheshti, again based on personal communication received by the first author (SM).

Judicial authorities had further confirmed a decision to give her a new sentence of 36 months in prison, 80 lashes and a fine on charges of “anti-government propaganda by means of the publication of false information” and “insulting government officials” [4].

She said on a phone call to her husband, the transcript being shared with the author and again regarding flogging sentence during an online meeting with author, before her arrest (SM): “I’m in security section 2A of Evin prison [a section controlled by the Revolutionary Guards] and they’ve told me I must serve 30 months in prison and receive 80 lashes, but as long as I live, I won’t let myself be flogged.” Flogging [2] must be seen as both a form of torture and “cruel and unusual punishment” denounced internationally [3,4]

During imprisonment, she had been exposed to solitary confinement, which is, according to UN, a form of psychological torture, with potentially severe health consequences, also practiced for example in the US [5], but forbidden as torture by international human rights standards, as stated by UN Special rapporteur Juan Mendez , and criticized by international expert boards [6-9]. Narges Mohammadi has published two books, which are currently being translated into English and German, and made a documentary film about the consequences of so-called “white torture,” in which prisoners are systematically held in solitary confinement for an unknown period of time without even access to a lawyer, under harsh conditions such as being exposed to light or noise all the time, etc. [6]. Conditions described would not violate the prohibitions described in the UN Anti-torture convention [4], but would also violate the special considerations applying to women prisoners as outlined in the UN standards (“Bangkok rules”) [10]. Mohammadi had also reportedly been earlier been subjected to direct physical violence by the director of Tehran’s Evin prison and several guards when she protested against her transfer to Zanjan prison, 300 km northwest of Tehran, in December 2019 [8].

The Third Committee of the UN General Assembly, which specialises in human rights issues, meanwhile adopted a resolution on 17 November, condemning Iran yet again for its flagrant human rights abuses, including its crackdowns on protests “using weapons of war,” according to Javaid Rehman, the UN special rapporteur on the human rights situation in Iran [9].

It might be noted, that publishing independent scientific research and reporting on human rights violations from countries such as Iran are nearly impossible, and data must frequently make use of reports by victims, family members and international NGOs [11]. The Islamic Republic of Iran is ranked 174th out of 180 countries in RSF’s 2021 World Press Freedom Index [10].

The Un Special Rapporteurs should therefore been invited to independently assess the situation of Narges Mohammadi and other, especially women prisoners in Iran. Women as human rights defenders should receive special support and consideration by the international community [12], to be given not only at November 29.

References

  1. Fahimi M, Homa Shaibany (1952) First woman surgeon of Iran. J Am Med Womens Assoc 7: 272-273.
  2. Leth PM, Banner J (2005) Forensic medical examination of refugees who claim to have been tortured. Am J Forensic Med Pathol 26: 125-130. [crossref]
  3. Lines R (2008) The right to health of prisoners in international human rights law. Int J Prison Health 4: 3-53. [crossref]
  4. Rasmussen OV (2006) The medical aspects of the UN Convention against Torture. Torture 16: 58-64. [crossref]
  5. Gawande A (2009) Hellhole: the United States holds tens of thousands of inmates in long-term solitary confinement. Is this torture? New Yorker 36-45. [crossref]
  6. Alempijevic D, Beriashvili R, Beynon J, Alempijevic Petersen D, Birmanns B, et al., (2020) Statement of the Independent Forensic Expert Group on Conversion Therapy. Torture 30: 66-78. [crossref]
  7. Hunt SC, Orsborn M, Checkoway H, Biggs ML, McFall M, et al., (2008) Later life disability status following incarceration as a prisoner of war. Mil Med 173: 613-618. [crossref]
  8. The Istanbul Statement on the Use and Effects of Solitary Confinement. Torture, 2008. 18: 63-66.
  9. Smith PS (2008) Solitary confinement. An introduction to the Istanbul Statement on the Use and Effects of Solitary Confinement. Torture 18: 56-62. [crossref]
  10. Van Hout MC, S Fleissner, H Stover (2021) #Me Too: Global Progress in Tackling Continued Custodial Violence against Women: The 10-Year Anniversary of the Bangkok Rules. Trauma Violence Abuse 15248380211036067.
  11. Siroos Mirzaei HA, Seyed Zarei, Reem Alksiri (2021) Psychosocial consequences of widespread of torture and sociopolitical pressure in Iran. Social Medicine 14.
  12. Wenzel T, Alksiri R, den Otter J, Mirzaei S (2020) Special challenges related to persecution and imprisonment for Woman in Syria-aspects of neglected problems in the support of survivors. ARCH Women Health Care 3: 1-3.
fig 3

The Dollar Value of Ideas Surrounding Ethnic Foods: A Mind Genomics Cartography

DOI: 10.31038/NRFSJ.2022511

Abstract

310 respondents each evaluated 60 unique vignettes (combinations of messages) about ethnic foods, the messages presenting information about the country of origin, when and why the food is eaten, and the benefit if the ethnic food goes ‘mainstream’, and the issues about food safety. Respondents each rated unique sets of 60 the vignettes, first assigning purchase price, and second recording their emotion on reading the vignette. Three mind-sets emerged, based upon the dollar value of the messages. Further analysis demonstrated the interaction of elements, showing how the specific ethnic source drove the dollar value of other elements. The approach is presented as a model for the easy, rapid, and affordable creations of databases of the mind of people as they experience issues of everyday life.

Introduction

One need only go to large supermarkets to look at the foods which become trendy. Whereas decades ago, the foods were big brands, mainstream, today the opposite is happening. Ethnic foods are booming, for many reasons, not the least of which are adventurous eaters, people who want to hold on to their heritages, and the ever-present desire of marketers to identify new opportunities to enter food categories perceived to be densely crowded.

Most of the focus on ethnic foods tends to be trends [1], the emergence of specific preferences for foods, [2], and the sheer joy of writing in depth about something new, something with substance to it which has a story. And of course, ethnic cuisine with it arrays of specific appearances, aromas, tastes, and textures make for interesting reading and interesting video presentations. Watching the chef prepare an ethnic dish is simply entertainment.

Part of appeal of research on food is the sheer fact that everyone eats. Researchers recognize that people eat for different reasons, whether those reasons be economic, satisfaction, curiosity, social demands, and forth [3]. The studies on what makes people try ethnic foods are often studies of the psychology of people or just as often the using people to understand more deeply the aspects of the food itself [4-6]. This paper emerges from a joint focus on the above issues; the mind of the consumer (rules of decision), and an interest in ethnic foods as it enters society (responses to ethnic foods going ‘mainstream’, and concerns about food safety) safety. What is it about ethnic foods which make them interesting? What is the economics involved with ethnic foods, such as the business issue of the premium price, if any, appropriate for ethnic foods? Can we learn more about the mind of the customer who buys ethnic foods?

The Contribution of Mind Genomics

Mind Genomics can be defined as the ‘science of the everyday’ from the point of view of the person who is experiencing the ordinary, topics requiring decisions. We are familiar with world of the everyday because we live in that world. Occasionally, researchers focus on this world, especially anthropologists and sociologists, as well as consumer researchers. Anthropologists describe the structure of our everyday culture. Sociologists describe how people relate to each other, what type of institutions they set up and how they deal with each other. Consumer research looks at what people do from the point of understanding a business situation. Most of these studies are from the outside in, looking at the external behavior of the person in a situation filled with choice opportunities. By looking from the outside in, we mean seeing how people react. Looking from the outside in does not mean disregarding what people say, but rather looking at generalities of a situation instead of the more granular specifics of the situation. For example, in a study of food choice by low-income families, Burns et al. (2013) instructed respondents to sort foods on the basis choice [7]. The basic unit adopted by the respondent was quantity per unit price (value for money), as well as estimated satiation of hunger per price. What more could have been learned were the respondent able to tell the researcher ‘why’.

Mind Genomics is an emerging discipline, cross-sectional in nature, with the objective to understand the world of everyday experience and choices through the lens of choice experiments. in simple terms, the goal is to understand how people think about the different aspects of a situation, such as the way we think about ethnic foods. Rather than simply asking respondent one or two questions about ethnic food, the objective is to probe more deeply, in the way a psychologist understands the mind from the inside out. The question is how one applies that type of thinking to something quite ordinary, like the nature of ethnic food. Personality could be probed and link that to the response to ethnic food, but the effort seems too circuitous. There should be a more direct way to understand the mind of the person regarding ethnic food, doing it so from inside.

During the past 80, researchers have recognized the possibility of learning a great deal of complex and compound systems of variables, using experimental design to create test stimuli comprising mixtures resembling what people experience in everyday life, measure the response to the mixtures, and then deconstruct the response into what each variable contributes when it is judged in what could be a simplified approximation to the ‘blooming, buzzing confusion’ of everyday life. The approach, systematized experimentation, makes sense when we work with both with description of everyday life. As simple as this sound, the process is quite elegant, and produces a great deal of understanding. Typically, the respondent first tries to figure out ‘what is the right answer’, but soon relaxes, realizing that it’s impossible to game the system. In this way the systematized mixing of ideas become a strong method to understand the everyday. The strength of the approach has not escaped researchers. The history of mixing ideas together goes back to the notions of functional measurement [8], to the mathematical psychology of conjoint measurement [9], and to the applications of these groundbreaking ideas by Paul Green and his associates at Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia [10].

Applying the Approach to Ethnic Foods

The research comes from the continuing interest in food safety, a topic expanded in the literature by Saulo and colleagues [11] the opportunity came along to study the intersection of food safety, and ethnic foods. At the same time, interest was growing in the application of methods other than Likert scales to measure hedonics. At the time of the study (2012), Moskowitz and colleague Stephen Rappaport were expanding Mind Genomics into the world of economics, calling the effort Cognitive Economics. The approach was looking at money both as a source of stimuli for investigation, and as a rating unity in place of hedonic judgments. Some of the interest emerged from the pioneering work of psychophysicist Eugene Galanter [12], who studied the utility and disutility of money, finding that the relation between Utility of Money and Actual amount of money could be represented by a power function of the form: Utility k (Dollars0.5). The use of money as a rating scale had been published before [13], but only as part of a study on the responsiveness of different kinds of scales to measure personality-related issues. The studies by Moskowitz and colleagues [14,15] would usher in the use of money scales to measure the response of homo economicus (dollars as scale points) versus homo emotionalis (Likert Scale).

It is important to note that the term ‘cognitive economics’ had been used before to describe the focus of economics on the psychological processes involved in economic decisions [16-19]. The term ‘cognitive economics’ used by Moskowitz, Rappaport and colleagues used the term strictly as an easy way to describe the use monetary scales by Mind Genomics, to compare scaling based on perception of price versus based on feeling Mind Genomics studies using both dollars as ratings, and liking as ratings, viz., two scales, suggested that respondents were more conservative when they used money as a scaling device, rather than interest or purchase intent as a scaling device (unpublished observations by HRM). Furthermore, in those studies for business clients, it appeared that the segmentation or dividing respondents by pattern of responses differed when the dependent variable was ‘dollar value’ associated with the element versus ‘degree of purchase intent’ associated with the element. This was summarized by the notion that ‘homo economicus’ may play by different rules than does ‘homo emotionalis.’ We may like something very much, but that does not mean we are going to pay more for it.

These early studies led to the study reported here, on the dollar value of the different aspects of ethnic food. Using Mind Genomics as the tool makes it possible to measure the dollar value of different aspects of ethnic food, such as the origin, the nature of food safety, the and the acceptance of the food, respectively. Although there are various studies in the literature discussing the acceptance and popularity of different ethnic foods, there did not seem to be any effort towards quantifying the different aspects of food in the spirit of a ‘dollar metric’ of the type that Mind Genomics would provide.

As noted above, Mind Genomics is well-suited towards the exploration of the dollar value of different aspects of a compound stimulus. Rather than breaking down the compound stimulus into its components and measuring responses to each component separately, Mind Genomics work with more ecologically typical combinations of components or messages. Respondents evaluate mixtures of messages, such as origin, usage, safety, etc. The combination more typically resembles a description of an ethnic food, although the combination is not at all polished. So long as the combinations are created in a statistically meaningful way using ‘experimental design’ [20], the researcher can create the combinations, test them with people using a scale, and then deconstruct the ratings into the part-worth contribution of each element, its impact. The process is more efficient, cannot be ‘gamed’, and forces the respondent to maintain a common criterion for judgment across different types of messages.

Setting Up the Mind Genomics Experiment for Ethnic Foods

Step 1: Select the Topic, the Questions (Categories), and Answers (Elements)

Mind Genomics works in a structured, templated manner. The test stimuli in a Mind Genomics experiment comprise combinations of elements, combinations that will to be treated as one compound idea. The underlying structure of the stimuli created by Mind Genomics is dictated by a ‘recipe’ book called the experimental design. Only certain pre-tested lists of specific mixtures are allowed. The structure guides the number of question and answers. Figure 1 shows the four questions, and the nine answers for each equation. The structure shown in Table 1 is called a 4×9 (four questions, nine answers per questions, henceforth referred to as nine elements per question).

fig 1

Figure 1: Example of a four element vignette

Table 1: The raw material, comprising four questions and nine elements (answers) for each question.

table 1

 

A key feature of Mind Genomics is that the questions will never be presented to the respondents. They are simple there to promote thinking about the topic. Furthermore, the question-answer format is a template. A question can comprise two or more different subs-questions. The only requirement is that an answer to one question cannot be broken into two groups, viz., appear as answers to two questions. . That is, one could imagine question #1 on the nature of the ethnic food ‘spilling over’ to question #2. This specific design can accommodate a maximum of nine different ethnic foods.

In contrast, a single question can comprise two or more topics, so long as the topic is completely covered in the one question. For example, Question #1 might comprise ethnic foods as well as methods of preparation. Having two different issues in Question 1 is fine, so long as neither issue appears in another question. The rationale for this is bookkeeping. All elements from one question must be able to be combined with all elements from another question, without creating a mutually incompatibility. In the case the question spills overs, e.g., having 12 different ethnic foods, not nine, it is likely that some vignettes will have two different ethnic foods of different types in the same vignette, a design flaw because the two elements of the same type contradict each other.

Step 2: Create the Test Vignettes, According to an Underlying Experimental Design

The respondents evaluated small vignettes comprising 2-4 elements, as dictated by an underlying experiment [20]. Figure 1 shows an example of a vignette comprising four elements, one from each of the four questions. Some of the vignettes comprise two elements, some three elements, the majority four elements. No more than one element ever appears from a question, permitting the design to act as a bookkeeping device.

One might question the design of the vignette. It does not appear to be nicely set up as a paragraph, with connecting words. The reality is that the vignette is set up to convey information in the format easiest for the respondent to search for the relevant information. In contrast to what might be thought at first, this sparse format is easy, and does not tire the respondent. The respondent quickly learns the scheme, in an in a way that is relaxed, the respondent evaluated each vignette, for a total of 60 vignettes.

Step 3: Select the Rating Scales that the Respondent Will Use to Evaluate the Vignettes

The rating scale provides a numerical way for the respondent to communicate with the researcher. This study comprised two scales, the first a scale of dollars, and the second a choice of emotion/feeling after reading the vignette. The dollar values were randomized, forcing the respondent to think before the scale ends up being memorized. By putting the different dollar values into an irregular order, the research forces the respond to put some extra thought into the evaluation of price. The second rating scale, emotion, was presented in an ascending array of emotions. Figure 2 shows an example of the orientation page that the respondents read before evaluating the vignettes, and before profiling themselves on a follow-on questionnaire.

fig 2

Figure 2: The orientation page for the study.

In the analysis, the dollar values will be treated a continuous scale, having ratio properties. In contrast, the five-point emotion scale will be treated as a nominal scale. The five points will be considered different alternatives. Ratings 1 and 2 are considered negative; rating 3 is considered neural, rating 4 and 5 are considered positive.

The entire evaluation session took about 20 minutes. The study comprised the orientation page, 60 vignettes, each rated on two scales, and a self-profiling questionnaire, dealing with who the person is, what the person does with regards to food and shopping, and attitudes toward different dimensions of ethnic foods, such as food safety.

The respondents were recruited by Luth Research, Inc. in San Diego, CA, and compensated as part of their panel participation. The study was totally anonymized so that the respondents could not be identified. A total of 310 respondents participated the respondents coming from across the United States. The requirements were to have approximately half males, half female, and an equal spread of ages.

Step 4: Preliminary, Surface-level Data Analysis

The data generated by the study comprises 60 vignettes each evaluated by 310 respondents, on two rating scales. The experimental design provides information about the actual nature of the stimuli, in terms of the phrases. Our first analysis, however, looks only at the patterns of the responses, without attempting to understand how the ‘meaning’ of the elements drives the response.

Without knowing the meaning of the elements, it is still possible to learn a great deal about the patterns of response. The first question involves the number of times each of the prices is chose, as well as the number of times the type of feeling is chosen. We define negative emotions as Distrusting, Suspicious. Concerned; the neutral emotion as Indifferent; and the positive emotions as Curious, Enthusiastic delighted. The analysis uses the base of 18,600 ratings, looking at the covariation of price and emotion. The analysis is a simple count.

Table 2 shows the cross tabulation of type of emotion (column) by the price chosen (row). The top part of Table 2 shows the choice of dollar value for each emotion. The pattern is quite clear. Negative emotions (Distrusting; Suspicion-Concerned) are associated with low prices, positive emotions (Curious; Enthusiastic-Excited) are associated with higher prices. The bottom part shows the choice of emotion associated with each dollar value. The same pattern holds, higher prices are associated with positive emotions.

Table 2: Association of selection of price and type of emotion.

table 2

 

The second superficial analysis looks at the consistency of the ratings across the 60 vignettes tested. The second rating scale, selection of emotion, was converted to five ‘daughter’ scales, one daughter scale for each of the five choices. When a specific feeling/emotion was selected for a vignette, the appropriate daughter scale was given the value ‘100’. The remaining four daughter scales were given the value 0. Thus, there are a total of 18,600 rows of data, each with a dollar value and five daughter scales, the latter having one ‘100’ and four 0’. The analysis consists of dividing the 18,600 rows of data into 60 summary rows, one row corresponding to one of the 60 positions or orders.

Figure 3 shows the averages by position for the dollar rating, and each of the five feelings/emotions. The key finding is that the selected price drops by about 65 cents from the start of the evaluation (order 1) to the end of the evaluation (order 60). This is an important trend, suggesting some change in the perception of an item’s worth over repeated exposures. The feelings/emotions show less stability, with the averages bouncing around, but there is no meaningful change that captures attention as does the change in assigned price.

fig 3

Figure 3: Change in the assigned rating of price, and the selection of feeling/emotion across the 60 vignettes evaluated by each respondent.

Step 5: Creating Individual-level Models and Developing Mind-sets by Clustering Coefficients

A hallmark of Mind Genomics is the effort to divide individuals based upon the pattern of their responses to the issues of everyday life. Whereas many methods for segmentation of consumers work on the supposition that people can be divided by the general patterns of what they believe, it is the tenet of Mind Genomics that the most practical and productive way is to divide people by how they respond to a limited, manageable ‘chunk of everyday life.’ There may be overriding groups of individuals falling into a limited number of grander mind-sets (e.g., Joel Garreau’s 1981 book on the Nine Nations of North America) [21], but such grand efforts do not cast light upon specific topic encountered in the granular existence of everyday life.

Mind Genomics divides people in a simpler way, more directly, and based upon the pattern of coefficients relating the presence/absence of the test elements to the responses. In our cases, the test elements comprise 36 statements, as shown in Table 1. The respondents evaluated small vignettes, comprising 2-4 elements. Each respondent evaluated 60 different vignettes, allowing us at the level of the individual respondent to create an equation: Dollar Value = k1(A1) + k2(A2) …. k36(D9). The equation relates the dollar chosen by the respondent to the presence absence of the 36 elements. The underlying experimental design allowed us to do this. Each element A1-D9 will end up with a dollar value. The data matrix will comprise 310 rows, each row comprising 36 columns of dollar values, one column for each estimated dollar value for each respondent. Although the respondents evaluated combinations, the regression modeling deconstructs the dollar value selected by the respondent to the individual dollar values of the elements. The respondent is entirely unaware, of course, that this economic deconstruction is going on based upon her or his data, within seconds of the completion of the evaluations.

At the end of the individual-level modeling, we are left with 310 equations each having 36 coefficients. We use clustering to divide these 310 respondents into two and then three smaller, non-overlapping groups. We do that by a method called k-means clustering [22,23], one of the many ‘flavors’ of clustering. The specific clustering method is not the key point here, but rather the notion that the clustering method is a heuristic, allowing us to easily divide this ‘booming buzzing confusion’ into a group of similar patterns. The choices of two or three or even more groups are a matter of interpretation, as is the naming of the groups.

As an example of what the clustering algorithm faces consider the panels in Figure 4. Each panel comprises six rows, each shows six ‘distributions’, albeit in a highly-shrunk fashion. Thus, each panel shows 36 distributions. The six rows in each panel correspond to the A1-A6 (row 1), A7-A9 & B1-B3 (row 2) etc. Each distribution corresponds to one of the 36 elements. The each of the 310 respondents contributes one ‘dot’ or ‘point’ to each of the 36 distributions. Just looking at the set of 36 distributions gives no idea about the existence of underlying groups. Everything looks theme same.

fig 4(1)

fig 4(2)

Figure 4: The distribution of coefficients. Each row in a panel corresponds shows the distribution of the coefficient value for one of the elements.

Now apply the clustering algorithm, and emerge with three mind-sets (MS1, MS2 MS3). It is still virtually impossible to discover the differences between the mind-sets, even though computationally we will see that the clustering algorithm pulls them appear. They are quite different from each other, with each mind-set placing different patterns of dollar values on the 36 elements.

The clustering algorithm computes a ‘distance’ between every pair of the 310 respondents, using the value (1-Pearson R), where Pearson R is the linear correlation between two respondents calculated from the 36 pairs of coefficients. The Pearson R takes on the value 1 when two respondents show coefficients moving in precisely the same pattern, so their distance is 0 (1-1). The Pearson R takes on the value -1 when the two respondents show coefficients moving in precisely opposite directions, so their distance is 2 (viz., 1 – – 1).

The array of distances, k-means clustering identifies a solution, or set of assignments of each of the 310 respondents, first to two clusters (two mind-sets), and then to three clusters (three mind-sets). The assignment attempts to minimize the distance between people in the same cluster as well as maximize the distances among the centroids of the cluster. The entire analysis is mathematically driven. It is the task of the researcher to select the number of clusters, and to name them. That task is done by naming the strong performing elements in each clustering (interpretability), and choosing as few clusters as one can (parsimony).

Step 6: Create the Grand Model, First for Total Panel, and Second for Each of the Three Mind-sets

Once the clusters or mind-sets are identified, the data can be treated either as one grand dataset of 310 respondents, or analyzed on a segment by segment, mind-set by mind-set basis. We will use the term ‘mind-set’ henceforth. The mind-set is named for the strongest performing elements, viz., the elements generating the highest dollar value for the mind-set. Each mind-set comprises individuals who seem to think about the world of ethnic foods in a similar fashion.

Table 5 shows the 36 coefficients, estimated first for the total panel, and then for the three mind-sets. Each model or equation is estimated on the pattern of responses to the elements. The creation of the mind-sets or clusters is objective, whereas the naming of the mind-sets is subjective, left to the researcher. To name the mind-sets we sort the 36 ‘dollar-based’ coefficient from high to low and highlight any coefficient of value 2.1 or higher, an arbitrary cut-point which allows us to name the mind-set. Mind-sets 1 and 3 are not polar opposites but show different patterns of stress on features of the experience. Mind-Set 2 is different, focusing on the ethnic origin of the food.

Mind-Set 1: Prizes ethnic foods for adventure, teaching interesting, safe to eat

Mind-Set 2: Prizes seven of the nine ethnic foods, does not prize African food, or Dutch, Polish, Russian foods (foods lacking well established restaurants in the United States)

Mind-Set 3: Prizes good food, healthy food, food which preserves my culture

Keep in mind that these are the statements for which the respondent is willing to pay more, even if the respondent does not realize it. The respondent is presented with many different elements. Even though the respondent may feel that she or he is responding in a ‘haphazard’ fashion, the data are orderly.

Scenarios: Interaction of Ethnic Food Source and Element to Increase or Decrease Price

Table 3 suggests three mind-sets, one of which (Mind-Set 2), is willing to pay more when the source of the ethnic food is revealed, e.g., Italian food (worth $3.6), or French food (worth $3.2). The data from Mind-Set 2 can be further studied by isolating all respondents from Mind-Set 2, and then creating 10 different strata, or smaller databases. Each smaller database comprises all the vignettes with a specific ethnic origin. Thus, there are all the vignettes which have NO ETHNIC ORIGIN mentioned, as prescribed by the experimental design. In addition, there are nine additional strata or smaller databases, one stratum for all vignettes having the origin Italian, a second stratum for all vignettes having the origin French, etc. In summary, then, we have 10 different strata generated from the data from Mind-Set 2.

Table 3: Dollar value for the 36 elements for the total panel and three emergent mind-sets. Strong performing elements (dollar coefficient of 2.1 or higher) are highlighted, allowing patterns to emerge.

table 3(1)

table 3(2)

For each stratum we can relate the dollar value of the vignette to 27 elements, B1-D9. We can no longer use Ethnic origin of the food because that origin is a constant for each stratum. That is, all the vignettes in the stratum for ‘African’ come respondents in Mind-Set 2, who evaluated vignettes begun with the statement ‘African Food.’

The analysis follows these steps

a. Create a data matrix. First create the model for all respondents in Mind-Set 2, for the stratum having NO mention of ethnic origin (viz., A – 0) The parameters of that model appear at the far-right column of Table 4, the title of the column being NONE (viz., no ethnic origin of the food.) This will be the baseline. Every other number will be compared to this baseline. Every other number in Table 4 will be ((Coefficient for element estimated with a specific ethnic origin) MINUS (Coefficient for that same element estimated in the absence of an ethnic origin)). This means that the coefficients in the first nine columns are differences from the NO Ethnicity Mentioned.

b. Build nine separate models for all respondents in Mind-Set 2, one for each of the nine strata having a specific country mentioned.

c. The difference is the INCREMENTAL VALUE OF THE ETHNIC ORIGIN. For example, B3 (Has good eating characteristics) is worth 2.3 dollars more when paired with Italian Food, but worth on 1.2 dollars more when paired with African Food.

Table 4: Interactive effect s- how ethnic origin of food interactions with the different elements. The numbers in the body of the body of the table show the change in dollar value of the element when it is associated with a specific ethnic origin.

table 4

Table 4 shows shaded cells for all cells evidencing an increase of $2.00 or more

The same element can be affected differently by the nine ethnic origins.

The same ethnic origin can affect different elements in different ways

There may or may not be an underlying pattern. If there is, that pattern may reveal itself by inspection, if simple enough.

The four elements most positively affected by statements of ethnic origin are:

Mainstream ethnic foods are safer than American foods.

Some ethnic foods are now part of mainstream American cuisine.

Mainstream ethnic foods still represent people’s beliefs and values.

Mainstream ethnic foods still teach people diversity in food, taste and food preparation.

The three elements least positively affected by statements of ethnic origin are:

Our food inspectors are not familiar with mainstream ethnic foods and don’t know how to inspect them.

Consciously searching and eating other foods for alternative lifestyles.

Mainstream ethnic foods cannot be as safe as American foods.

Although the naming of the mind-sets is straightforward, the pattern of interactions may be as interpretable, even though the pattern can be discovered.

The Covariation of Price with Emotion

We finish the analysis by considering the covariation of price with the selection of positive emotions (Curious…Enthusiastic) and or negative emotions (Distrust, Suspicious). We run two models, using Question #1 (select dollar value). We run six models, a model for each of the three mind-sets using only the vignettes generating a positive emotion (rating 4 or 5 on Question #2), and then a second model for each of the three mind-sets using only the vignettes generating a negative emotion (rating 1 or 2 on Question #2).

Table 5 shows that virtually always those elements generating a positive emotion drove a higher rating for dollars for the same element. There are some interesting foods where emotion plays a greater effect influencing the dollar value ascribable to the element. Three elements are worth 1.30 to 1.50 when the respondent feels about a good experience reading the vignette.

Table 5: Coefficients of the two models for dollar value of elements for three mindsets. The models were six times, three mind-sets, first based on vignettes associated with a positive emotion (Pos), and second based on vignettes associated with a negative emotion (Neg). The AVG column shows the difference in dollar value.

table 5

Middle Eastern Food $1.50 more

Consciously searching and eating other foods for alternative lifestyles $1.40 more

Dutch, Polish or Russian Food $1.40 more

Not every element show a strong lift in dollar value correlating with strongly positive emotions. Here are elements, whose values are increased by 60 cents or less. They are elements which do not talk about the joy of foods, but they do talk about food safety.

Inspectors need training on how to inspect mainstream ethnic foods

We need increased inspection of mainstream ethnic foods

Interesting ingredients… Ethnic foods are interesting

Mainstream ethnic foods from some countries are safer than ethnic foods from other countries

There are no ethnic foods that are accepted as part of mainstream American cuisine

Mainstream ethnic foods are safer than American foods

Discussion and Conclusion

The data presented here provide a new way to understand the way we make decisions. As noted in the introduction, a great deal of our knowledge about ethnic foods comes from those who do ‘trend spotting’, identifying what people search for on the web, identifying what the trade believes to be happening, or asking people in ongoing surveys which build databases over time. Sometimes the pattern becomes obvious, when one sees the emergence of new foods on the shelves in stores, and the opening of restaurants, often short lived.

At the same time that there is the richness of food behavior measured, databased, and summarized, there is little in the way of a profound understanding of the mind of the ordinary person with respect to ethnic foods. There are isolated, generally unconnected studies emerging from marketing and food science, executed and published because the topic of ethnic foods is relevant to the researcher’s focus on consumers and the way they think. There is appears to be almost nothing dealing with the inside of the consumer focusing outwards, related to foods. It’s all outward focusing inward or inwards focused on psychological processes, using food as a convenient topic.

This paper merges two new areas to focus on ethnic foods, doing so in a way which displays the richness about the way we think. The first is the disciplined approach imposed upon the research. Rather than ‘pick and choose’ interesting ideas, focusing only upon them, Mind Genomics forces the researcher to come up with structured questions, which tells a ‘sort of story’. The four questions in this study can be considered as the outline of the story, perhaps being told from the vantage point of Where the food comes from (Question 1), where the food is consumed (Question 2), what are the benefit of the food if it goes mainstream (Question 3), and what are the aspects of food safety which might be relevant (Question 4). The requirement to provide nine answers to each question forces the researcher to new ways to think about the topic in terms of specifics, not just in terms of general topics having vague meaning.

The Role of Money, rather than Stated Purchase Intent, as a Key Response Measure

Researcher continually look for appropriate, sensitive, and meaningful measures by which they can more deeply understand how the respondent ‘feels’ about specifics of the external world. The most widely used variables are the rating scales, used to measure intensity of feeling, such as degree of desire to purchase a product. This has been labelled the rating by ‘homo emotionalis’, emotional man, because the respondent is stating a feeling, albeit through the scale. The use of money as a rating scale calls into play different decision processes. Just because a person likes something does not mean that the person will pay more or even a lot more when the person is asked to rate the ‘appropriate price.’

The data from this study suggest that there is a loose relationship between homo economicus (shown by Question #1, dealing with dollars), and homo emotionalis (shown by Question# 2). Table 5 suggests that for the same food, a person who says she or he is experiencing a positive emotion is likely to say that she or he will spend an extra dollar or even several dollars more for certain elements. The discovery here is that the two ways of measuring responses are not parallel.

The Value of Being Able to Test a Lot of the Design Space, and Discover Interactions among Elements

A key contribution of this paper is the demonstration that one can discover interactions among variables in an experimental design, even when the variables are discrete. The unique experimental designs created for Mind Genomics, and the systematized permutations of the basic design enable the researcher to test a great deal of the possible ‘space’ of vignettes, our combinations of elements. There are nine elements in each of the four questions, so that there are 10 actual options of an element (viz, A0-A9, B0-B9, C0-C9, D0-D9). If we look at the total possible number of vignettes, we arrive at 10,000 – 1, the ‘1’ corresponding to the one vignette comprising no elements (A, B, C, and D are all absent). If we are more rigid, we can discard another 36 vignettes. It is highly unlikely for the researcher to be able to find the mind-sets when all 60 vignettes are the same across the 310 respondents. There might emerge mind-sets, but there would be no reason to expect that these mind-sets would represent anything other than a local pattern driven strongly by the single original experimental design. There would be no generality to the finding, just a statistical ‘nicety.’

The second benefit is the ability to do the scenario analysis, as we did to find out how the country of origin of the ethnic food interacts with the other elements. Without the interactions the data just shows the strength of the element, averaging the varying strength of the element which waxes and wanes, depending upon the other element with which it is paired. The data in Table 5 suggests that the dollar value of the element can be dramatically influenced by the nature of the ethnic origin, a pattern that could only be hypothesized about without the scenario analysis and the ability to identify interactions and calculate their magnitude.

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